Catch "big" put "small" super match real estate Energy

The enthusiasm of investors in a-share market has been greatly improved, and the activity of market transactions has reached a high level.　　It is expected that the possibility of a change in the May, the proposal investors will be from the perspective of small stocks gradually shifted to large stocks, and exceed the financial, real estate, consumer durables, energy and other industries. Gao Gaojian Hu Hao Ma Jian Market sentiment is running at a level close to 07. The rebound has been more than half a year since the start of last November, with the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 index rising nearly 60%, with a large number of stocks already hitting new highs.　　Statistics show that the latest closing price of 792 stocks is higher than the June 11, 2008 Shanghai Index 3,000 points (considering the right factor), accounting for the normal number of shares of 50.2%. From the April index performance, the April index continued to rise in the trend, although the increase in March narrowed, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 4.397%, Shen Chengzhi Rose 5.724%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 4.591%, the composite index rose 4.752%. and the market volume in March after a small cut back to rise, the total market turnover rose more than 20%.　　From the relevant statistics can be seen, the market monthly turnover rate of three consecutive months to maintain more than 75%, close to the first half of 07 height, far higher than the 08 average of 35%.　　From the above phenomenon, with the international and domestic situation changes, although the economic situation has bottomed out is difficult to judge, but the share market investor enthusiasm has greatly improved, the market transaction activity has reached a higher level. Technical analysis, the current stock indexes have both stood at the top of the integer pass, MACD Index also Golden fork up, 5th EMA also quickly up to the short-term market to form a certain support, the market still has the potential to continue higher.　　However, the recent acceleration of the market, the two cities rose by more than 10%, and a stock increase is more substantial, there are shocks to digest profit chips may be, therefore, in the process of the stock index rebound will be accompanied by the vibration of the plate frequently appear. Focus on the style of the size of the switch from the performance of the style index, since the beginning of November last year, as of the end of April, Citic Small index rose 105.76%, CITIC Index rose 50.98%, CITIC Small plate index far away to win the Citic Market index. If specific to the month, November, December, January, February, March, April CITIC Small plate index ran the CITIC Market index of 10.6%, 5.7%, 5.5%, 3.9%, 6.8% and 2% respectively.　　From the valuation level, the small plate of PB valuation than the larger market shares more than 20%, and the PE level is more than a large market shares of one times (here e take the listed companies this year quarterly and last 2343 quarterly data rolling plus total, the same below). According to the new issue of the "a-share market size disk rotation monthly tracking report", we judged from the recent macro data trend, the industrial value of the recovery showed signs of revival, the April M1 may fall in March, the basic rate of interest to bottom, which constitutes our early definition of the large stocks appear stagedExternal conditions. In addition, in the past two years, the RSI reached about 60, the market shares in the short term will be performance.　　Therefore, we believe that although the April style pointers still point to small stocks, but the possibility of a change in the May, it is suggested that investors will be the perspective from small stocks gradually switch to large stocks. The trend of the industry to judge a a-share market there is an obvious industry rotation phenomenon, here do not do too much argumentation, many papers and research reports have given a detailed exposition.　　Here mainly based on the industry valuation of the horizontal and vertical comparisons, looking for the relative "depression" for investors to provide reference for the industry rotation. The most outstanding plate non-telecom service in the April, in the rebound, the Telecom Service index, which has not shown any chance of performance, Rose 17% this month, and from the overall valuation level of the industry, the sector still has a greater valuation advantage, supported by strong profitability, and still has an upward momentum in the future. The auto industry, which has benefited from continued sales figures, rose 15% per cent this month, rising by more than 80% this year. And the heat of software services has not abated, and still has a 10% monthly gain. After the strength of the raw materials industry in March, the rankings fell sharply this month. To the securities brokerage trust-oriented diversified financial sector, the relative composite index this month is only 10%, in the two-tier industry bottom. From the end of last year's market warming began, all major industry sectors have a certain performance, only the energy and financial two major plates always hovering at the bottom. The history can be found that the trend of energy sector has always been relatively independent, the overall valuation level is relatively stable, but the financial plate historical volatility is large, the valuation has a lot of room for change, the future period of time that the plate has the possibility of performance. The first exerting force of telecom Plate may herald a new round of value investment. In addition, the entire financial sector accounted for more than 50% of the market index, if the large stocks as expected in the May, the financial sector will certainly be performance. Ultra-matching finance, real estate, durable consumption, energy last month, we combined a small number of components, the industry proportion of relatively concentrated. After 08 years of four seasons and a sharp rebound in the first quarter of 09, some sectors have been very high, such as manufacturing and extractive industries (according to the SFC), durable consumption, energy and raw materials (by GICs). The industry classification statistics are weighted by the current market value of the constituent stocks in this period, compared with the previous period, this period has significantly reduced the extractive and manufacturing industries, increased holdings in the financial sector (according to the Securities and Futures Commission), mainly reducing metal, non-metallic and papermaking, printing, overweight food and beverage and pharmaceutical organisms in the manufacturing sector, and from the GICS classification, the main increase in the financial sector,　　Reduce energy and raw materials. Relative to the market equilibrium configuration, according to the Securities and Futures Commission classification of the main financial (Super 6.61%), real Estate (5.67%), low-matching manufacturing (low with 9.12%), the integrated category (Ultra 2.11%); According to Citic Securities classification of the main financial (ultra with 11.95%), durable consumption ( Super 6.02%),Energy (1.44%), low matching raw materials (low with 8.77%), regular consumption (low with 3.44%), industrial products (low with 2.05%). We have a large stock pool of 353 stock growth value matrix scoring, growth score on average divided into 27.48, of which the highest growth of the company for Real medicine, growth was divided into 45.31 points, the lowest growth score of the company for the Gold Cup car, growth is divided into 5.99;　　The value score is divided into 25.49, of which the highest value of the company for the horse Steel shares, the value is divided into 47.88 points, the lowest value of the company for HTC shares, the value is divided into 6.55. Overall, the company that belongs to the Garp type (growth and value score are greater than equals 30 points) has 43, belong to pure value Company (growth score is less than 30 points, value score is greater than 30 points of the company) has 72, belong to the pure Growth Company (growth score is greater than or equal to 30 points,　　A company with a value score of less than 30 points) has 112, and is a relatively unattractive company (companies with less than 30 points of growth and value) have 126.　　After comprehensive analysis, we suggest that investors should pay close attention to the change of size and style in this month's investment, and in combination with finance, real estate, consumer durables, energy and other industries. Author unit: Citic Securities