China's economic focus shifts to structural adjustment

"Financial network," a reporter Guo Lina November 3, the World Bank's latest "China Economic quarterly" pointed out that China's economic growth has slowed, but still maintain a healthy posture, while the economic structure has changed.　　Year-on-year GDP growth in the third quarter fell from 10.6% in the first half, but remained surprisingly strong for 9.6%. As the stimulus policy waned, the money supply became normal, the domestic economy cooled, and investment, urban consumption and import growth slowed.　　At the same time, exports remained strong, net exports made a significant contribution to economic growth, and external surpluses rose again. The report notes that despite the expected decline in growth rates, the global growth outlook remains quite favourable due to strong emerging market performance, although risks such as weak economic prospects in high-income countries remain.　　Globally, with overcapacity in many countries, rising prices continue to be curbed, and raw material prices rebound, there is an international risk of inflation upside. The report argues that China itself continues to maintain good growth momentum, with upside and downside risks coexisting. "As global growth slows and macroeconomic policies normalize, China's growth rate is likely to slow further, but the traditional growth momentum and strong labour market will continue to support growth," said Kuijs, the World Bank's top economist and leading author of the China Economic Quarterly. After the three-quarter data, we adjusted the GDP growth forecast for 2010 to 10%. We expect a 2011 growth rate of 8.7% and a slowdown in the medium term. "Inflation is likely to remain at a target of more than 3% per cent for some time, driven by rising food prices." Headline inflation is unlikely to rise sharply as core inflation is subdued. But the price of raw materials may continue to rise, and the likelihood of a sustained sharp increase in wages, though small, cannot be ruled out altogether. Given the fundamental power of rising housing prices, house prices cannot remain unchanged for long.　　In the light of current trends and policies, external surpluses in dollar terms in 2011 and in the medium term tended to rise. Ardo Hansson, China's chief economist at the World Bank, said: "There is a need to further normalize macroeconomic policies to prevent macro risks, and now the main concern is rising asset prices, local fiscal strains and bad bank debt, which cannot be ruled out." Importantly, bi-directional risk requires policy formulation to remain flexible. "The Chinese government is pushing forward the normalization process of macro-monetary policy and trying to achieve the quantitative targets of monetary policy for 2010." In addition, the Chinese government has started to raise interest rates, but the interest rate needs to be further improved. International liquidity poses a challenge to monetary policy but is manageable in China compared to other emerging market countries.　　However, measures could be taken to strengthen the prevention of harmful capital flows. The China quarterly report points out that the 12th five-year plan (2011-2015) should focus on structural issues and reform. Changing the mode of growth is a core goal, at present to promote economic rebalancing, to achieve the demand-driven, to serveThe need for industry-led growth is more pressing than it was five years ago, partly because the international environment has become more unfavourable.　　Rebalancing will not happen spontaneously, and the achievement of this goal requires major policy adjustments. (Stock market Weekly feeds)