China's GDP growth in two quarters is expected to be close to 8%

China's economy is showing a more obvious rebound the growth rate of GDP (source: National Bureau of Statistics website), Beijing, June 23 (reporter Zhu Jianhong) The National Bureau of Statistics published its signature article today, saying the bottom of the Chinese economy's growth should be in the four quarter last year.　　According to the performance and trend analysis of the main economic indicators in 4 and 52 months, the two-quarter GDP (GDP) growth rate is expected to be close to 8%, showing a more obvious rebound. The bottom of this round of the economy should be in the four quarter of last year, according to this article analysis, from the operating trend of GDP, the first half of last year GDP growth of 10.4%, three quarter growth of 9%, four quarterly growth rate fell to 6.8%, the first quarter of this year fell further to 6.1%. According to the performance and trend analysis of the main economic indicators in 4 and 52 months, GDP growth in the two quarter is expected to be close to 8%, showing a more obvious rebound. In terms of GDP year-on-year, the bottom of this round should be in the four quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year.　　According to the department's initial estimate of the quarterly GDP quarter, growth in the third quarter of 2%, four-quarter growth of 0.1%, the first quarter of this year 1.5%, two-quarter growth is expected to increase more than 2%, judging by this round of the bottom of the economy should be in the last four quarters. In the world, GDP and some other relative index are usually used to judge the stage of economic operation, among which GDP is the most comprehensive and important criterion.　　As agriculture, service industry is relatively stable, and GDP accounting only quarterly data, therefore, the measurement of economic cycle changes in China to look at the industrial production and related important products changes. From the trend of industrial production, the value of the above-scale industry increased from March onwards, showing a more obvious trend of fluctuation. 3、4、5月份 growth of 8.3%, 7.3% and 8.9% respectively, May growth rate was basically restored to last October level.　　From the relevant departments to estimate the quarterly quarter-on-quarter situation, the four quarter last year fell 3.4%, the first quarter of this year rose 3.2%. From the main industrial products, the national output of steel production last October as the lowest level of the year, daily average level of 1.385 million tons, November to 1.41 million tons, starting from December to show the momentum of Rising, May reached 1.848 million tons, the highest level since last year. The average power generation on the national day fell from last July's 10.31 billion kilowatt hour high point straight down to this 1-February 8.28 billion kilowatt hours.　　Since March this year, the start has rebounded, 3, 4, 53 months, more than 9 billion-kilowatt hours, early June was nearly 10 billion-kilowatt hours.　　The NBS article analyses that whether from the GDP, industrial production growth, or from the steel production, power generation and other physical indicators, if there is no new big accident, the basic can be concluded that the current economy has bottomed out, the most difficult time has passed, the next stage of the economy is expected to stabilize the good. Production capacity utilization of many industries is still low with the centralThe implementation of the policy of expanding domestic demand, the lack of demand contradictions have eased, but the lack of demand is still the main contradiction in the current economic operation. First, from the three major demand changes, although domestic demand continues to accelerate growth, but it is still difficult to fully compensate for the weakening of external demand. January-May, China's urban fixed assets investment increased by 32.9%, indicating the future investment development trend of the urban new project plan total investment growth of 95.9% (the same period was 2.5% year-on-year), and the trend of continuous acceleration. Total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 15% in May, excluding price factors, with real growth of 16.4%, up 3.7% from a year earlier. But why is the growth of industrial production still on a lower platform in the face of faster growth in domestic demand? The key is a severe contraction of external demand. Export growth in the four quarter of 2008 fell sharply from 22.9% in the three quarter to 4.3%, down 19.7% in the first quarter and 24.6% per cent in April-May.　　From the export delivery value to the industrial production of the Pull effect, March 2008 is 0.9%, starting from November all negative pull, of which, this January-February pull-2.2%, 4 May are 1.5%. Secondly, from the situation of supply and demand convergence, the current economic growth rate is lower than the normal level, a lot of industry production efficiency is low, in addition to some of the industry capacity surplus, but also reflects the existence of insufficient demand. Finally, from the price level changes, whether the CPI or PPI, the overall year-on-year continued to decline, indicating demand relative to supply is still inadequate.