China's new office on the first half of the National Economic Performance Conference

Xiaochao Photography: China net Wang Rui Click here to see all financial news pictures of the National Bureau of Statistics, the Deputy Director of the new Office of Information Lu Guangjin chaired the press conference of the State Council of China Wang Rui July 16, 2009 (Thursday) 10 o'clock in the morning held a press conference, Please press spokesman of National Bureau of Statistics, Director of National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Division Xiaochao introduced the national economy operation in the first half of this year, and answer the reporter ask.　　The following is the transcript of the conference. Lu Guangjin: Ladies and gentlemen, good morning, welcome to the State Council news Office press conference. Today, we have a press spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, Mr. Xiaochao, director of the Integrated Statistics Division of National Economy, to introduce the national economy in the first half of this year, and to answer your questions.　　Now, let Mr. Xiaochao introduce the situation. Xiaochao: Ladies and gentlemen, good morning! Nice to meet you again.　　First of all, I would like to give you an introduction to the national economy, and then I will be happy to answer your concerns.　　Since this year, all regions and departments have conscientiously implemented the central government's package of measures to deal with the international financial crisis and maintain a steady and rapid economic development, and have been striving to overcome various difficulties in the process, increasing the positive factors in economic operation and stabilizing the national economy. Xiaochao: initial accounting, the first half of the gross domestic product of 13.9862 trillion yuan, according to comparable calculation, year-on-year growth of 7.1%, faster than the first quarter 1%. Quarterly, growth of 6.1% in the first quarter, two quarter growth of 7.9%.　　Divided industry, primary added value of 1.2025 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.8%, secondary added value of 7.007 trillion yuan, 6.6% increase, the third industry added value of 5.7767 trillion yuan, growth of 8.3%. Xiaochao: 1. Harvest to achieve six consecutive years of production increase, animal husbandry and stable growth. The national harvest output of 123.35 million tons, 2.6 million tons more than the previous year, an increase of 2.2%, six consecutive years of production. Among them, the increase of grain yield by 2.5 million tons, accounted for more than 96% of the total production of harvest. In the first half of the year, pig, cattle and sheep poultry meat production 35.8 million tons, increased 6.3%. Among them, pork production 23.63 million tons, an increase of 8.1%.　　Live pigs grew by 7.9% and pig herds grew by 3.9%. Xiaochao: 2. Industrial production picked up and industrial profits slowed down. In the first half, growth in industrial-scale industries increased 7% year-on-year (June growth of 10.7%), with growth falling 9.3% from a year earlier. Among them, the first quarter growth of 5.1%, two quarter growth of 9.1%. In the view of economic types, state-owned and state-controlled enterprises grew by 1.7%, collective-owned enterprises increased 5.9%, joint-stock enterprises increased 9.4%, and foreign and Hong Kong and Macao Investment Enterprises grew 1.2%. In light of heavy industry, heavy industry grew 6.6% and light industry grew by 8.2%. Sub-industry look, 39 major categories of industries, 36 industries to maintain year-on-year increaseLong。 In the region, the eastern region grew by 5.9%, the central region grew by 6.8% and the western region grew by 13.2%.　　Industrial production and marketing convergence, the first half of the industrial product sales rate of 97.2%. Xiaochao: 1-May, the national scale of industrial enterprises above the profit of 850.2 billion yuan, down 22.9%, compared to 1-February reduction of 14.4%. In 39 major industries, 19 industries have fallen and profits in some sectors have continued to grow more quickly or to turn to profitability.　　The food manufacturing industry realized the profit growth 17.1%, the textile clothing shoes and hats manufacturing industry growth 16.6%, the ferrous metal smelting and the calendering processing industry, the non-ferrous metal smelting and the calendering processing industry respectively from 1-February losses 800 million yuan and 1.9 billion yuan to profit 2.6 billion yuan and 9.6 billion yuan. Xiaochao: 3. Fixed asset investment has increased rapidly and investment structure has improved. The first half of the total investment in fixed assets 9.1321 trillion yuan, an increase of 33.5%, faster than a year earlier 7.2%. Among them, the urban fixed assets investment 7.8098 trillion yuan, the growth 33.6% (June growth 35.3%), the acceleration 6.8%, the rural fixed assets investment 1.3223 trillion yuan, the growth 32.7%, accelerates 9.5%. In the urban fixed assets investment, the primary investment grew 68.9%, the second industry grew 29% and the tertiary sector increased by 36.6%. In the region, urban investment in the eastern region grew by 26.7%, the central region grew by 38.1% and the western region grew by 42.1%.　　Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 57.4% per cent, with rail transport growing 126.5% per cent, road transport growth 54.7%, Water Conservancy, environment and public facilities management growing by 54.5%, health, social security and social welfare growth 71.3%, and cultural, sports and entertainment growth by 57.1%. Xiaochao: 4. Domestic market sales steady and rapid growth, county and county below growth faster than the city. In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 5.8711 trillion yuan, an increase of 15% (June growth of 15%), deducting the price factor, the actual growth of 16.6%, up to 3.7%. Among them, the City consumer goods retail sales 3.9833 trillion yuan, growth 14.4%, county and county below the consumer goods retail sales 1.8878 trillion yuan, growth 16.4%. The wholesale and retail sector grew by 14.7% per cent, while the accommodation and catering industry grew by 18.1%.　　In the wholesale and retail sectors above the quota, furniture retail sales grew 28.3% year-on-year, and the car class grew 18.1%. Xiaochao: 5. Consumer prices continue to decline, production prices fell more than the year before. In the first half, consumer prices fell 1.1% from a year earlier (down 1.7% in June and 0.5% per cent in the chain). Among them, the city fell 1.3% and the countryside fell by 0.6%. Categories do not look, tobacco and alcohol and supplies rose 1.7%, household equipment supplies and maintenance services rose 1.3%, health care and aPeople's supplies rose 1.1%, food fell 0.3%, clothing dropped 2.4%, traffic and communications fell 2.5%, entertainment education stationery and services fell 0.7%, and living decreased by 3.9%. The first half of the year, the retail price of goods fell 1.4% year-on-year (June year-on-year decline of 2.3%), industrial products factory prices fell 5.9% (June year-on-year decline of 7.8%);　　70 large and medium cities housing sales prices fell 0.8% year-on-year (June year-on-year Rise of 0.2%). Xiaochao: 6. Foreign trade continued to fall sharply, with a slight decrease in the trade surplus. In the first half, import and export total 946.1 billion U.S. dollars, down 23.5%. Among them, exports 521.5 billion U.S. dollars, fell 21.8%; imports 424.6 billion U.S. dollars, down 25.4%.　　Trade surplus of 96.9 billion U.S. dollars, the year-on-year reduction of 2.1 billion U.S. dollars. Xiaochao: 7. The income of urban and rural residents continues to increase, and the transfer income increases greatly. In the first half, the total income per capita of urban households was 9667 yuan. Among them, per capita disposable income of 8856 yuan, an increase of 9.8%, deduct the price factor, the actual growth of 11.2%. In the total income per capita of the urban households, the wage income was 6394 yuan, the increase was 11.1%, the transfer income was 2273 Yuan, the growth was 16%, the net income was 778 yuan, the growth was 3.9%, the property income was 222 yuan, and the growth was 9.1%. The rural residents per capita cash income of 2733 yuan, an increase of 8.1%, excluding the price factor, the actual growth of 8.1%.　　Among them, the wage income of 954 yuan, growth 8.4%, household income of 1512 yuan, increase 5.5%, property income 78 yuan, increase 9.9%, transfer income 189 yuan, increase 31.4%. Xiaochao: 8. The money supply has grown rapidly, with loans from financial institutions rising sharply. At the end of June, the broad money supply (M2) balance of 56.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 28.5%, faster than the end of last year 10.6%; narrow-sense money supply (M1) Balance 19.3 trillion yuan, increase 24.8%, accelerate 15.7%; market circulation Volume (M0) The balance was 3.4 trillion yuan, increasing 11.5%, and falling back 1.2%.　　Financial institutions RMB loan balance of 37.7 trillion yuan, increased by 7.4 trillion yuan earlier than the beginning of the year, more than 4.9 trillion yuan, each RMB deposit balance of 56.6 trillion yuan, than the beginning of the year to increase 10 trillion yuan, more than 5 trillion yuan. Xiaochao: The current economic development is facing many difficulties and challenges, the National Economic Recovery Foundation is not stable, the rebound situation is still unstable, the rebound pattern is still uneven, the rebound process there are uncertainties, instability factors. The next stage should continue to implement the scientific concept of development, according to the central government's decision-making on economic work, adhere to the positive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, fully implement the package of the international financial crisisPlan to continuously improve the pertinence, effectiveness and sustainability of the policy, focus on consolidating and developing the economic recovery momentum, pay more attention to safeguarding and improving people's livelihood, vigorously promote structural adjustment and independent innovation, accelerate the cultivation of new growth points, improve the quality of economic recovery, and strive to achieve steady and rapid development of national economy Lu Guangjin: Now start to ask questions, please inform your own media, preferably each journalist friend only ask one question. Economic data Conference of the first half of the National Bureau of Statistics Play video [page] excuse me, Mr Lee, the first half of this year, China's lending too fast, many people think the second half may cause inflation On the other hand, China's prices in the first half of this year except January is 1% of positive growth, the following months are negative, many people think that the second half of our country may be deflation, you think the second half of China is to prevent inflation important or prevent deflation important?　　Thank you! Xiaochao: Inflation, or deflation, usually refers to a sustained, across-the-board rise or fall in prices. So, I think it might be more accurate to introduce the issue to you at a price.　　Inflation is not what we need, and deflation is not what we want, because they all hurt the healthy development of the economy and what we want is to keep prices at a reasonable level. Xiaochao: To answer this question, first of all, we have to see that this year, the domestic consumer prices and factory price of industrial products have been in the decline of the interval. In the first half, consumer prices fell 1.1% per cent year-on-year, up 7.9% in the same period, and have been falling since February, falling 1.6%, 1.2%, 1.5%, 1.4% and 1.7% respectively, and three-and-five drops in the eight categories.　　Since March, the chain has also been declining, March-June, the chain fell 0.3%, 0.2%, 0.3% and 0.5% respectively. At the same time, the first half of factory prices fell 5.9% per cent year-on-year, and January-June, year-on-year decline showed a gradual expansion of the trend, January-June, respectively, 3.3%, 4.5%, 6%, 6.6%, 7.2% and 7.8%. In the upstream of raw materials, fuel, power purchase price drop more, the first half fell 8.7%.　　This is the first place we should look at deflation or inflation. Xiaochao: Second, to accurately answer this question, but also to see the rapid growth of monetary credit since this year, prices and monetary credit have a close positive correlation. Therefore, in the observation of price changes, the rapid growth of money and credit cannot but arouse our attention. Broad money supply increased 28.5% year-on-year, narrow-sense money supply growth of 24.8%, and credit also appeared a substantial increase in the first half of the financial institutions of the loans than the beginning of the year nearly 7.4 trillion yuan, the year-on-year increase of nearly 5 trillion yuan, for the whole year of new loans of 150%.　　This is the second area we need to be aware of when it comes to the judgment of deflation or inflation. Xiaochao: Third, in the face of the above situation, this requires us to focus on the shadowThe price drop factor, but also pay attention to the cause of price increases, both see the immediate changes in the phenomenon, but also to see the future trend. Xiaochao: First of all, to see the current price is still in the reality of decline, total demand is still insufficient, economic growth is still lower than the potential growth rate, some industries overcapacity, production capacity utilization is low. In the two quarter of this year, the steel industry production capacity utilization rate is only 73.1%, aluminum metallurgy is 65.7%, Ferroalloy is 70.4%. At the same time, we have to see that the harvest has increased production for six consecutive years. As you know, our prices are often closely related to the supply of food. Second, we cannot ignore the factors that affect future price increases, and the supply of money and credit is growing faster. At the same time, the rise of external prices is also an important factor affecting the price increase in China. Since this year, the price of international primary products has increased, which has also had a certain impact on our country's prices. According to the World Bank, at the beginning of this year, the spot price of Brent crude in the North Sea was up 67% from the end of 2008, copper and lead Rose 72.7% respectively, Cotton rose 12%, and soybeans rose 13.6%.　　At the same time we also want to see nearly three months of the chain of industrial products ex-factory has also risen. Xiaochao: We also need to see some uncertainties about the possible impact on prices. With the enlargement of the opening degree of the country, some external changes will have a direct impact on our country's price. Although the price of international primary products has risen sharply in the past year, there have been sharp fluctuations in recent years and may have some impact on our domestic prices.　　Therefore, we should pay more attention to the change of price, we should observe calmly and grasp the main problems and major aspects of the current problem. My question is about the labour market, at the beginning of the year, we were very concerned about the unemployment of migrant workers, and I know that the Bureau of Statistics has also intensified its investigation into the labour market. What are the new trends and new developments in employment and unemployment in recent months?　　In particular, the employment of rural migrant workers, unemployment problems. Xiaochao: At present, on the one hand, we are facing the peak of employment, on the other hand, our economic growth is affected by the international financial crisis, although in the rebound, but the demand for increased employment is still a certain distance, the current employment is still facing greater pressure.　　In response to this situation, the central Government has placed special emphasis on the implementation of an active employment policy and a series of measures in the package. Xiaochao: According to the relevant department statistics, in the first half of this year, we will have a positive appearance of new employment. The number of rural migrant workers has increased, at the end of the two quarter, the number of rural labor migrant workers increased by 3.78 million people in the first quarter, an increase of 2.6%. Among them, the eastern region increased by 560,000 people, an increase of 1.6%, the central region increased by 800,000 people, increased by 1.8%, and the western region increased by 2.42 million, an increase of 6.5%.　　Of course, the difficulties and pressures facing employment are still relatively large. As for the financial crisis, we all say that "crisis" and "machine" are actually coexisting. Now, the dangerous experience mayMore. So some people say this is a good opportunity for us to upgrade our industry. What do you think of the relationship between "crisis" and "machine"?　　Can you introduce some of our work on industrial restructuring? Xiaochao: If we review and summarize the history of the world financial crisis, it is not difficult to find that the economic structure of different degrees after the various levels of the new adjustment, new changes and new patterns. In the face of the most severe international financial crisis since the last century and the 30, China's economic development has encountered a few years of grim situation, but we maintain a stable economic recovery, but also as the reporter asked in the question, is to actively seize some of the opportunities in the crisis, and actively promote economic restructuring　　, organically combining the growth and restructuring of the economy, and trying to seize the opportunity to promote economic restructuring in the midst of the economic crisis. Xiaochao: First, seize the opportunity to increase investment in basic industries, infrastructure and social undertakings, laying the foundation for future economic development.　　In the first half of urban fixed assets investment, primary investment rose 68.9%, tertiary industry investment increased 36.6%, infrastructure investment increased 57.4% (excluding electricity), of which railway investment grew 126.5%. Xiaochao: Second, seize the opportunity to increase scientific and technological innovation and investment, enhance the competitiveness of enterprises. A new generation of mobile communications, software, biomedicine and other emerging industries accelerated development, a group of nuclear power, wind power and other major energy projects started, High-tech industry to maintain a faster growth.　　The first half of the year, the pharmaceutical industry grew 12.7%, the chemical growth of 10.2%, communications equipment growth of 11.5%, computer machine manufacturing growth of 13.4%. Xiaochao: Third, seize the opportunity to speed up the development of circular economy, promote energy conservation and emission reduction. In the first half of the year, six high energy-carrying industry growth of 4.2%, compared to the industrial scale of 2.8% lower.　　1-May, in the focus of energy-consuming industrial enterprises Statistics of the Unit product comprehensive energy consumption indicators, more than 80% of the downward trend, high energy consumption of low consumption of products can form a direct energy saving of about more than 15 million tons. Xiaochao: Four, seize the opportunity to increase investment in the central and western regions and promote coordinated regional development.　　In the first half of the year, the central region's urban fixed investment growth of 38.1%, the western region grew 42.1%, faster than the east growth rate.　　Five, seize the opportunity, enterprises to speed up the merger and reorganization, enterprise organizational structure further optimization. Last time you gave us the first quarter figures in the press conference, this time we thought you would give the second quarter of the data, I found that you give the data are the first half of the year, I do not know if you can give us a detailed description of the second quarter of GDP, as well as one or two, three industries investment and retail sales data?　　In addition, can you not give us a quarterly and quarterly growth or decline in the range of data? Xiaochao: Because time is limited, every time I introduceAlways on the main introduction, in fact, I just put the two-quarter data has been reported out, two-quarter growth of 7.9%, the first half of the year-on-year growth of 7.1%, other data we can also do, but I think may not necessarily in the news conference all about the data. If you want, there will be quarterly data on our website and on our publications. The second issue is about the ring data, the chain data requirements of high and long data. When the United States to do the chain data, there must be a certain amount of data time series, and then use some mathematical models in the smooth past data based on the chain. This work we have been developing, at any time to study abroad, and study our own characteristics, such as our spring festival factors in foreign countries do not, this needs to be adjusted in the model; our Dragon Boat Festival, foreign not, this model also needs to adjust. And also need to have a piece of observation, in the end can reflect the dynamic changes, but also need to observe slowly, can be published outside.　　I think it may take some time. The economic growth rate of the second quarter is close to 8%, can you think that China's economy has bottomed out?　　In addition, how do you evaluate the effectiveness of the package implementation? Xiaochao: The package plan, may be present in the will have feelings, the chain price rise, reflects the economic recovery, and the strength of the rebound in the increase. Since the four quarter of last year, facing the extremely complex and severe situation both at home and abroad, the central government made decisive decisions, implemented active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, and continuously enriched, enriched and perfected the package plan of coping with the international financial crisis and maintaining the steady and rapid development of economy, including the content of growth, expanding domestic demand, adjusting structure and In accordance with the overall requirements of the package plan, the implementation of 4 trillion investment plans, structural tax reduction, "home appliances to the countryside", as well as encourage the car, home appliances to replace the old policy measures to expand investment and consumption, improve exports, credit insurance and export tax policy, timely adjustment of export tax rebate rate and other policies to stabilize exports. The implementation of the top ten industrial adjustment and revitalization plan, the national science and technology major projects, the development of High-tech industrial clusters, strengthen the enterprise technology reform and other policies to adjust and optimize the economic structure, stabilize agricultural development, promote farmers income, the implementation of stability and expand employment policies, to improve the retired workers pension and pensions,　　To improve the livelihood of the people by raising the minimum level of protection and minimum wage standards. Xiaochao: With the implementation of the package plan, our economy is running in a good direction, positive factors are increasing, the overall situation is stable to good, outstanding performance as "four One": "A Rebound", the production growth rate has risen steadily. Gross domestic product rose 7.1% in the first half of the year, with growth of 6.1% per cent and two in the quarter of 7.9%. As you can see, the two quarter is faster than the first quarter of 1.8%, perhaps this change from industrial production to see more clearly some, in January-February, industrial production above the scale of 3.8%, March growth of 8.3%, April, although a decline, but continued to rebound in May, increased by 8.9%, to June, increasedLong 4.7%.　　And in the industry, more than 60% of the industry's production growth accelerated, in the industrial products nearly 60% of the product production in the accelerated. Xiaochao: "One speed up", domestic demand growth is accelerating, expanding domestic demand is the impetus and the hand of economic stabilization and recovery.　　In the first half of this year, the social fixed assets investment grew 33.5%, faster than the first quarter of 4.7%, the first half of the total retail sales of consumer goods grew 15%, and domestic demand growth in two more prominent highlights, that is, commercial housing sales growth is obvious, car sales growth, respectively, increase 31.7% and 17.7%. Xiaochao: "One pushes forward", the economic structure adjusts to promote positively, the promotion structure adjustment is the need and the request that maintains the steady and rapid development of the economy.　　First, infrastructure and basic industries have been further strengthened; the second is the rapid pick-up in equipment industry, the first half of the equipment industry growth of 6.7% year-on-year, faster than the first quarter of 3%; third, the regional development coordination has been enhanced, the central and western region investment and industrial production growth is obviously accelerated. Xiaochao: "An improvement", people's livelihood continues to improve, improving people's livelihood is to maintain a stable and rapid economic development of the starting point and destination. People's livelihood in extremely difficult circumstances, and has been further improved, one is the basic stability of employment, the second is the steady growth of income; third, the social security expenditure further increases, in the first half of the year, under the pressure of higher revenue, the fiscal use of social security and employment expenditure rose 29.2%,　　The central government's minimum living security and subsistence allowance for rural residents increased by 49.9% and above 140% respectively. Xiaochao: The above situation shows that the central government to deal with the international financial crisis, to maintain a stable and relatively rapid economic development package has achieved significant results, is correct, timely and effective. But it must also be sobering to see that the fundamentals of our economic recovery are shaky, the rebound situation is not stable, the rebound pattern is not balanced, as I said at the beginning, probably most people feel that there has been a rebound, because it is unbalanced, there may be some enterprises, some areas, some groups, may not feel the rebound, Because it is a bit of a rebound in the imbalance, the rebound process there are some uncertainties. For example, the external need is obviously insufficient, serious atrophy, the first half of our exports fell 21.8%; In addition some enterprises, some industries are still more difficult to achieve profit, enterprises continue to decline in profits, financial increase incremental pressure is still large, overcapacity is still more prominent, employment pressure is relatively large.　　We cannot afford to slack off on these issues, and the task of consolidating and developing a good situation for economic stabilization and recovery is still quite arduous. Some of Rio's employees had been investigated for alleged breaches of China's national security or secret laws because they had obtained data or information on some of the Chinese economy, but before today's launch, some data on China's economic performance had been released, Actually, this morning's papers were released before today's meeting.The growth rate of China's GDP.　　I wonder if this behavior also violates China's national security or confidential laws, and does it also investigate such conduct? Xiaochao: I saw the news in my office in the morning before I came to the press office.　　We have been very concerned about the impact of the release of the news, we will be in accordance with the relevant provisions and procedures for investigation. At the last press conference, director Li also disclosed some data. First question, what is the amount of GDP data to be calculated by spending law? What is the contribution of consumer investment already exported? Is there any difference between this spending method and the GDP calculation of the production method? Second question, can you disclose the amount of electricity you have disclosed in the first quarter? The third question, you talk about the continued sharp decline in foreign trade, so the relevant closed and discontinued enterprises data and unemployment data can be provided? The fourth question is whether the growth rate of Chinese urbanization in the first half has been affected by the financial crisis.　　Fifth question, how about the completion of the first half of the housing project? Xiaochao: A total of six questions, mainly statistics, I can't remember so much, but I also thank you for your attention to the statistical data, because a lot of data may be through our website, through our publications to get. But one thing I can say is the contribution of the three major needs to economic growth, because this is the most important aspect of the macro. In the first half of GDP growth in the three major demand, the final consumption of economic growth contribution rate is 53.4%, boosting GDP growth of 3.8%. The second is investment, we usually call the total capital formation, the total capital formation is not entirely fixed assets investment, but also include inventory, the contribution rate to economic growth is 87.6%, pulling GDP growth 6.2%.　　Third, foreign demand, usually the professional language is called "net exports", the contribution rate to economic growth is negative 41%, and the drop in GDP growth is negative 2.9%. Lu Guangjin: Today's press conference is over, thank you!