Consistent forecast: September China's total imports growth rate 26%

by Bao Zhe October 8, "The crystal ball China macroeconomic September consensus forecast", released by the Securities Market weekly by Sina Finance Exclusive network, shows that the expected average rate of GDP growth in September is 26%. Consistent expected survey data show that the annual GDP growth rate of September expected maximum value of 45%, the lowest value of 15%, the median 25%.　　The GDP growth rate of August was 35.2%, and the expected value of GDP growth in September was significantly lower than the actual value of August. 601328.SH/03328.HK, an international economic researcher at the Development Research Department of Bank of Communications (Lu Zhiming), said in a telephone interview that the sharp decline in the GDP growth rate was mainly attributable to the large changes in the September 2009 base,　　But from the August 2010 and September chain data to see the change is not big. Lu Zhiming explained that, from a trend perspective, the year-on-year increase in imports in August 2010 reversed the successive declines since March, but not in terms of total imports, but not a sharp rise in the last 4 months.　　At the same time, imports in September 2009 rose by nearly 15 billion trillion dollars from August, so if the overall trend is unchanged, then the September import year-on-year growth rate will have a significant decline. At the same time, Lu Zhiming said, from the fundamental point of view, the domestic economic growth gradually slowed down, infrastructure and industrial output growth has stabilized downward. Domestic import demand is unlikely to rise sharply.　　At the same time, international commodity prices, such as crude oil, have stabilized due to the resurgence of the European debt crisis and the deceleration of the US economy, which is beneficial to reducing the total amount of imports in China.　　Finally, Lu Zhiming said that the future year-on-year growth rate of imports is likely to stabilize, the fourth quarter is expected to increase the gross domestic product growth is expected to stabilise between 22%~23%.　　Jinpeng Futures Economic Co., Ltd. researcher Zhangxiaolei in a written interview with reporters also said that the international high prices of raw materials, so that China from Australia, the Americas and other regions of the import of raw materials have been significantly reduced. "With the increase in iron ore imports as an example, there has been a significant slowdown in growth," Zhangxiaolei said, "due to the decline in processing demand mitigation, while import costs increased, imports fell, August 44 million tons, the first seven months a total of 360 million tons, September expected imports continue to decline."　　Zhangxiaolei added that China's export weakness also restricts import growth, and that at this stage, the European and American countries are gradually joining the global manufacturing ranks, China's export market has suffered severe squeeze, the traditional export market disappeared at the same time as a competitor, so that the export-side pressure to transfer to the import end.　　Zhangxiaolei concluded that the shrinking demand market and higher import costs had slowed expectations of China's import data growth in the fourth quarter of this year. The agencies involved include BofA Merrill Lynch, Paris-France Securities, Standard Chartered Bank, Citibank (C. NYSE), HSBC, Bank of China (601988.sh/03988.HK), ICBC (601398.SH/01398.HK), CICC, Wanguo, China Merchants Securities (600999.SH) and so on.