CPI linked to April short-term policy changes

Consumer prices for May fell 1.4% from a year earlier (Year-on-year), down 0.3% from last month, according to the latest figures released yesterday by the National Bureau of Statistics. Compared with April, the year-on-year decline shrank by 0.1% and the chain fell by 0.1%.　　This is the first time in 2003 after China's economy recovered from the Asian financial crisis, the CPI has been negative for four consecutive months. The National Bureau of Statistics yesterday released its core CPI figures for the first. The data fell 1.3% from a year earlier, reflecting real price levels and deflationary pressures as it deducted the price indices of volatile food and energy.　　This has allowed many experts to believe that the current deflationary pressure in China is still the absolute "subject matter" compared with the current sharp rise in the social inflation worries.　　The price of pork is down 32% from the data itself, the CPI decline in May is indeed narrower than last month, but it is likely that the Dragon Boat festival and 51 holidays pushed up the price of the month.　　Perhaps the May figures were particularly notable in that the year-on-year decline in food CPI fell from 1.3% in April to 0.6%, while Non-food CPI declines widened from 1.3% last month to 1.7%.　　Simply understood, since non-food prices tend to be related to industrial production, the decline in this data is a direct indication of the current economic situation is not optimistic. Micro-CPI data, in the Non-food category, residential prices fell the biggest, year-on-year decline of 4.8%, the decline of the April expansion of 0.8%. As for food prices, pork prices remain the culprit.　　The data showed that pork prices continued to decline since October 2008, and continued to expand, the price of pork fell by 32% in May.　　The fear of inflation is a stark deflationary pressure on the data, but on the other side, the debate on inflation has not diminished. Since China's resource prices have been low for a long time, the call to speed up resource-price reform is basically tantamount to increasing future inflation expectations.　　One of the details is that, just last month, the state just announced an increase in oil prices. In addition, there are many other risks of serious inflation in China.　　For example, the large amount of credit that has been hotly discussed has not yet been settled, and global commodity prices have recently risen significantly. The vast majority of experts give policy advice on this: watch it change.　　Gao Shanwen, chief economist at Shun Securities, expects the CPI to return to a positive range by the end of the year, and there should be no big adjustment for the period.　　The reform of the CPI statistical method Interestingly, after yesterday's CPI data were released, some experts focused on the reform of the CPI methodology. This refers to food prices in China's CPI data in the weight is too high, and repeatedly drag the CPI data "distortion" of the glass according to the Bank of Communications Research department to provide data, food prices in China's CPI data accounted for up to 34%, than the weight ranked second in the cultural and entertainment prices are nearly 2 higher0%.　　Just yesterday, the Bureau of Statistics, the director of consumer prices Liu Jianwei has made clear for the first time that the new CPI weights are gearing up. However, one expert at the Bank of Communications Research department is not optimistic.　　He predicts that changing the weight of the CPI will not lead to much change. "Our national CPI statistics method has been used for so many years, combined with our residents ' heavy eating ' consumption habits, food prices accounted for a relatively high may also have some truth.　　The expert said. "The rise of grain prices will affect the future trend of CPI, and it remains to be seen further," the National Bureau of Statistics said yesterday in its May reading of CPI changes. ”