Credit crunch bank funds still hard to push into bond market

Credit crunch bank funds still hard to get into the bond market people believe that the bond markets will continue to be weak in the year October, the PBOC released data showing that the new 253 billion yuan loan, the minimum level of new credit for the year, is expected to maintain a period of ample momentum of bank funds,　　But it still seems hard to ease the current weakness of the bond market.　　Market participants tend to believe that banks, which are dominated by the bond market, are unlikely to move into the bond market in large part, or will continue to be vulnerable, if they are constrained by next year's credit or increased volume and upward expectations of interest rates. Credit falls back on schedule as the scale of new credit declines.　　According to figures released 11th by the People's Bank of China, the new renminbi loan was 253 billion yuan in October, setting a new low for one month in the year, not only the new credit scale of 1.2 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, but also a far cry from the annual low of 355.9 billion yuan in July. "The balance sheet adjustment of commercial banks is the main cause of credit contraction."　　"The first venture securities fixed income analyst Liu Haidong said in an interview, on the one hand, the credit is in the contraction cycle and commercial bank credit season model Related: Based on early lending early benefit of the law and the impact of the provision of provisions, commercial bank credit delivery rhythm will generally appear larger at the beginning of the year, a smaller before the end of the lower model. On the other hand, "current credit also has a policy level of contraction pressure."　　"Liu Haidong said.　　Industry insiders tend to believe that, if not an accident, the next two months, the major line of credit will not change the size of the big changes will be stabilized at the current level.　　Pushing the banks into bond markets? In general, with other factors stabilizing, the fall in the size of new credit is good for the bond market, which means banks will have more money to invest in debt markets.　　But "can invest does not represent a certain input", the market personage is not optimistic that the bank increases the bond market investment after the credit increment falls down. "In the context of credit contraction, the financial side will be in a period of ample trend."　　"But that does not mean that banks will deploy bonds aggressively under the pressure of short-term capital allocation," Liu Haidong said. Liu Haidong Analysis said that on the one hand, despite the current contraction of credit, but the market is inclined to think that next year credit volume is a big probability event, out of reserve funds to consider, banks large allocation of bonds is unlikely;　　It is hard for banks to form a willingness to allocate bonds on a large scale. In fact, the enthusiasm of the large commercial banks to participate in the market has obviously weakened.　　According to statistics from the central government Bond Company, October National Commercial Bank bond custodian volume increased by 147.4 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 200 billion yuan compared with September. Many bankers are also not optimistic about the current bond market opportunities. Dong Dezhi, the trading center of Bank of China's global financial markets, said in its research report that late-stage bondsThe market is cautious and pessimistic, he also believes that the 1-year central vote issuance rate has upward pressure, is expected to rise to more than 2% in the year, and the bond market has a negative impact.　　Nevertheless, there are still market participants that the upward pace of bond market yields are expected to slow down in the credit contraction, the financial sector, and even a phased downward, but the extent will be very limited, and may be mainly concentrated in the first market. The "sudden rise" of the risk capital should be noted that, at the same time, there is a "sudden rise" in the capital allocation of banks.　　With the rise of premium income and the increase of the yield of long term bonds and credit bonds, the investment of insurance funds on the bond market has increased markedly since the three quarter. According to data from the central government bond registration and clearing company, the three-quarter insurance company increased its bond size to 65.2 billion yuan, while in the past October the insurer increased its holdings by 43.6 billion yuan, setting a new high for a single month in the year,　　2009 years ago, the two-quarter insurance companies in the size of the debt reduction of 44.2 billion yuan and 2.2 billion yuan respectively. "The rise in premium income and the shift of insurance companies from negotiated deposits to bonds are the two main reasons for insurers to increase their holdings of bonds."　　"CICC Fixed income researcher Chen Jianheng analysis that the insurance company's allocation of pressure in the next period of time will continue to release. Chen Jianheng explained that on the one hand, the insurance company this year the cash increases substantially, has the obvious "the mismatch" characteristic.　　According to CICC estimates, the current insurance companies "less than" the amount of funds may reach 250 billion yuan to 300 billion yuan. On the other hand, "there is a considerable portion of the agreed deposits to be diverted to bond allocation."　　"The amount of capital that insurers need to allocate on bonds in the four quarter is not small, estimated at more than 200 billion yuan," Chen Jianheng. Affected by this, some people in the industry optimistic that in the coming years, while choosing to allocate credit bonds, insurers are expected to increase their demand for long-term Treasury bonds and policy-bank debt, which will curb the rise in long-term yields and, even as the market sentiment improves, become the main driving force behind the decline in long-term debt yields.