Credit risk worries fade policy will not "slam the brakes"

After the first half of the credit volume increased greatly, its possible credit risk is also quite affected by outside attention. At the same time, the central bank has also begun to tighten liquidity to test market reaction. However, some analysts believe that the regulator's current main tone is "growth", the second half of the loose monetary policy will not "slam the brakes."　　In this way, however, the quality of the bank's assets will face greater challenges. Risk worries highlight China Banking Regulatory Commission, Secretary Wang Huaqing has publicly said that in the current process of rapid credit expansion, credit asset concentration risk is increasingly prominent, bank new loans may appear industry concentration, customer concentration and the period of long-term trend, vulnerable to macroeconomic fluctuations and business cycle of the impact,　　There may even be systemic risk in serious cases. The data show that the current focus on lending is mainly to government-led projects, including a large number of local projects.　　In the 1―5 month of this year, China's urban fixed asset investment growth rate of up to 32.9%, of which May one-month growth rate of October 2004 highs, and in the high data growth behind, the local government has begun to replace the central level as the primary driving force and leading forces. Lianping, chief economist at Bank of communications, said that local government financing platform debt rate is very high, some more than 80% or higher, and its solvency is not fully guaranteed. He also said that the concentration of new credit will bring the risk of paper financing, "some of the financing of the bill has no real background, some banks blindly bigger, and even the possibility of fraud." These funds are relatively unstable and may cause liquidity risks in the middle of the banks. Some enterprises may not be able to pay after the expiration, and finally by the commercial banks to advance and so on, will produce certain risks. "The bank's chief economist Lu County analysis said that a considerable proportion of paper financing and short-term loans, the end of this year or next year will naturally expire, the full year of credit will not exceed 10 trillion yuan, but the real concern is that the loose monetary policy of credit is not compliance, The big bank's project is not in line with the country's industrial policy.　　Once the economy is overheated, these irregularities will be halted and the bank's bad debt rate will rise sharply. Policy will not "slam the brakes" and experts analysis, bad debts may come from a number of aspects: the first is that 4 trillion of the investment plan will inevitably appear some non-performing loans, infrastructure construction of repetitive construction, extravagance and waste, local governments allow the production of deficits, are likely to breed bad debts,　　And the 4 trillion majority have already flowed into the real economy; the second is that credit is flowing into the virtual economy, and if the stock market and the property market are rising and uncontrollable, then there are bubbles in both the capital markets and the property markets, which, after bursting, will inevitably result in credit-recovery difficulties that will eventually lead to In addition, the domestic credit card market non-performing rate is also worthy of vigilance, without the target and economic affordability, credit card issuance of uncontrolled growth, there will be such as South Korea and Taiwan, such as the emergence of credit card bad storm。 Despite concerns about the risks of excessive lending, some experts say the current main tone of the regulator is "growth", so policy does not "brake" on the emergency.　　In this way, however, the quality of the bank's assets will face greater challenges. Bankers have also pointed out that banks are now generally under a lot of pressure and the competition is particularly fierce. In fact, the bank's internal rigid lending indicators have been gone, but the problem is that no loan proceeds will not come, so branches, sub-branches still have the impulse to lend. On the other hand, banks are more stringent in terms of credit, and there is no more room for development than government projects. In this view, the focus of credit in the second half of the year will not change substantially compared with the first half.