Currency translation contributes about 40% additional foreign exchange reserves

Safe said in the three quarter, foreign exchange reserve currency converted into U.S. dollars, and asset price changes to increase more than 80 billion U.S. dollars reserve "Caixin net" (reporter Horon) three quarters of China's foreign exchange reserves significantly increased, for its reasons, the head of safe, said　　Currency translation and asset price changes are one of the main reasons for the increase of foreign exchange reserves.　　October 14, in the form of a response to a journalist, the head of the board explained the reasons for the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves in the three quarter. Foreign exchange reserves increased 194 billion U.S. dollars in the three quarter to a single quarterly high since 1997, according to the People's Bank of China October 13. The size of the new foreign exchange reserves in September was the first to break hundreds of billions of dollars for 100.5 billion dollars. By the end of September, the balance of national foreign exchange reserves had broken record, reaching 2.6483 trillion US dollars. Click to see the big picture Click to enter the macro data channel of the introduction of the board, People's Bank of China's foreign exchange reserves, including exchange rates, prices and other transactions caused by the changes in the reserves, the main non-US dollar currencies in the three quarter against the overall appreciation of the dollar, in particular, the euro against the United States dollar a significant appreciation of 11%, so that foreign exchange reserves in the U.S.　　Combined with changes in asset prices, it added $ more than 80 billion trillion in reserves, accounting for about 41% of new reserves in the three quarter.　　In the first half, the euro depreciated 15% against the dollar, and the non-dollar currency reduced the current reserve increase. The trade surplus and the actual use of foreign capital (FDI) increase, is also the main reason for the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves in the three quarter.　　In the third quarter, China's import and export surplus of 65.3 billion U.S. dollars, more than the first half of the 55.3 billion U.S. dollars, July and August respectively, 6.924 billion U.S. dollars and 7.602 billion U.S. dollars.　　The Board also pointed out that some of the domestic large enterprises listed overseas listing financing repatriation also led to increased foreign exchange reserves, for example, Agricultural Bank of China on the Hong Kong stock market to raise $ more than 10 billion.　　In addition, the reserve operating income has also led to an increase in the size of reserves, said the head of the foreign administration. September new foreign exchange accounted for 289.565 billion yuan, the new foreign exchange reserves more than 100 billion U.S. dollars.　　The discussion of whether "hot money" has poured in again. Safe believes that the "new foreign exchange account-trade surplus-the actual use of foreign capital = Hot Money" method of measurement, not only missed the service, income, securities investment and other balance-of-payments transactions, and in the absence of a determination of the composition of foreign exchange and formation mechanism of the situation, the different categories of statistical data,　　The conclusions drawn therefrom are also undesirable. Mark Williams, a senior economist at the British research consultancy, Economics, Mark Williams at, said that although the calculations were not very correct, and that speculative funds could be disguised as trade and FDI inflows, they could not be counted.　　But the size of the residuals is a barometer of the inflow of speculative money and a rough indication of size. For future periodsTrends in capital inflows, the administration believes that, in the near term, capital inflows remain under greater pressure. The reason is that, on the one hand, China's macroeconomic operation is more stable, economic growth prospects are better, local currency appreciation is expected, foreign capital inflow has a certain driving force; On the other hand, the international financial market is still not smooth, domestic macro-control faced with the management of inflation expectations, curb asset prices too fast　　These factors may be transmitted through foreign trade, foreign capital, banks and other channels to increase the volatility of Cross-border capital flows.　　In order to prevent the "hot money" flow risk, the Foreign Management bureau points out that in the long run, we should constantly improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, further exert the basic role of market mechanism, and avoid giving "hot money" the space for continuous arbitrage speculation. The bank's senior economist, Lu Commissar, suggests that, given the current pressure on international capital inflows and the need to nurture a risk-averse market for the exchange rate, and the steep depreciation of the dollar, it should be announced that the yuan should be expanded against the dollar, making it clear that the renminbi may fluctuate significantly against the dollar It is urgent for the market subject to make a good exchange rate hedging arrangement to restrain the international capital inflow and ensure the smooth trade.