Data "Complex" about a-share

The author Wanguo Securities Research Institute Wang Xiaoliang not know is accidental or inevitable, whenever one months in the middle of the alternating, the market is always full of hesitation and impetuous mood, especially recently, more than empty at the 2,600-point crossing launched a seesaw battle. Monday Long Yin pull down the "Wolf" Cry, Tuesday Wednesday Bulls but also juchongruoqing, blue chip with the subject unit together, the index to create a 9-month high.　　Just as people think that the market may step into a one-sided, data adverse triggered overnight stock market plunged, Asia-Pacific markets a jittery, the global economic recovery, the hope of cooling down, a share of the lower open lower, 2,600 points before the whole of the "mire". Why there is so much repetition, in fact, the "Data complex" has left investors feeling. These days is the April macro data Disclosure Day, we see: April CPI, PPI is still double negative, deflation worries many investors stop; the first 3 months of credit will be 1.62 trillion, 1.2 trillion, 1.89 trillion of the report card surrendered, April credit increase suddenly shrank to 591.8 billion, Will the liquidity drop cause the stock market to stop? Foreign trade data, April China's import and export value of 170.7 billion U.S. dollars, still fall 22.8%, hope that China's export recovery is too early? These questions remind us all the time, the stock market wants to say, but the risk will come if we can't put it into practice.　　So have a recent 2,600 points up and down repeatedly, just have more empty a regiment "chaos".　　In fact, we might as well calm down and analyze the economic data to see what problems investors may understand too superficial. The first is the double "negative" problem of CPI and PPI, and the fall in food prices, especially pork prices, is the main reason for the increase in CPI declines. Seasonal factors in food prices have been removed over time, and the CPI rally is only a matter of time, and fears of deflation seem overblown. The issue of PPI also needs to be seen in split, although lower prices make corporate profit growth face greater pressure, but to take into account the greater decline in cost investment, combined with the future quarterly GDP, the actual sales will increase, the future improvement of corporate earnings should be able to maintain optimistic judgment, with the rise in performance,　　The excessive risk of stock market valuation should be dissolved in the intangible. Second, the volume of credit brings liquidity is an important reason for bullish stocks in the first quarter, but the April reduction in credit is an objective reason: due to quarterly factors, banks tend to increase credit in the end of March, the March 1.89 trillion of the data do indeed bank "rush point" component. The central bank's first-quarter monetary policy performance report has been made explicit, so it is natural to squeeze credit for April. This is not the deliberate tightening of liquidity by management, which has been "unfounded". In addition, the foreign trade data year-on-year decline and the rising, grim situation under the dawn has now. The National Bureau of Statistics announced that April China's urban fixed asset investment growth reached 34%, a certain degree of export downturn also played an offsetting role. Others such as industrial added value growth7.3%, the growth rate of auto production soared to 17.9%, the previous April total consumer goods retail sales growth of 15% and other good news, all show that short borrowed data to speak seems to have some selectivity problem, the data is not as terrible as imagined. As for the stock market, the hot spot of the industry plate is more related to the trend of index. We have seen that in recent years, management has introduced a number of policy but also intentionally or unintentionally in the creation of some can generate investment theme opportunities: The Shanghai "Two Center construction" policy Dongfeng, in line with the theme of the first anniversary of the Expo Countdown, Shanghai Local stocks in recent weeks the outstanding performance; The State Council issued a plan to encourage economic zone construction in the West Bank Regional revitalization and add vitality, not only Fujian Xiamen regional listed companies exaggerated, other potential revitalization policies such as Chongqing Sichuan-Chongqing Plate also appeared a lot of trading opportunities. Yesterday's stock market overall was adjusted, but the central government arranged tens of billions of funds to implement 11 major technology-specific news, or aroused the relevant machine tool manufacturing, "nuclear high-based" industry, gas layer development and bio-pharmaceutical stocks long enthusiasm.　　At the same time, stimulating consumption to digest investment surge brings overcapacity, is also the focus of management concern, the CBRC will be in four cities to test water consumption financial companies, consumer loans are mainly used to buy home appliances and tourism, education, wedding and other reports of newspapers, consumer stocks recently strengthened, gave us the theme of the new direction of investment. So when we see the index callback, we should keep some more heart, it is not the 2008 when the entire stock market system fell, then regardless of the company Nishajuxia, of course, also "wrong kill" a lot of good stocks. Now, with strong policy support, the outlook for China's economic recovery is widely optimistic, the stock market also early shows the trend of the leading economic bottom up, at this time, the short always borrow some uncertain things to play psychological warfare, but the trend of this year's rise in the small back of the tone has been clear, to seize the policy-led industry sector and stock opportunities, Rather than generally judge the "clearance" or "full warehouse", this is a pragmatic approach. On the current large number of funds to restart the opening of the door, the reappearance of a single fund to raise more than 10 billion of the pomp, the organization has just been more than the road, the more preference, relatively stagnant market blue-chip, such as banks, real estate, steel, electricity, etc., is also a sound investment strategy.