Dealers ' Association reports a possible reduction in reserve requirements by three quarters

Dealers Association: Three quarter or policy fine-tuning time window Li The Chinese bond market's second-quarter analysis of the 2010, the Bank of China Market Traders Association (hereinafter called the "Traders Association"), said the second half of the year's "growth" will be the primary concern for macroeconomic regulation,　　The three quarter is expected to become a time window for policy fine-tuning. Third-quarter deposit reserve ratio may be reported that the overall first half of the macro-control measures embodied the "holding" policy thinking, economic structure adjustment to economic growth rate of the impact of the central expectations, but the two quarter GDP growth, investment growth and a series of economic leading indicators of the decline,　　The effectiveness of these stimulus measures is still insufficient.　　July 22, the Politburo meeting pointed out that the second half of the policy will remain stable, but also pointed out that the resolution of long-standing institutional, structural problems, and the economic operation of the outstanding urgency of the issue needs to be on the basis of stable and rapid economic growth. "Inflation, with the international market commodity prices down, the input of inflationary pressure to reduce, as long as the control of domestic agricultural prices, the management of inflation expectations, the second half will not be obvious inflation, there is no pressure to raise interest rates."　　A person in the Information Research Department of the Traders Association said.　　Notably, the report notes the possibility of a downward deposit reserve ratio in the three quarter of this year.　　These people believe that the three-quarter money supply will maintain a moderately loose, but the first half of the money is too loose the situation will be difficult to reproduce. "In terms of the main factors affecting the money supply, the revaluation of RMB, the deterioration of international trade environment, the weakness of external demand growth and the adjustment of export drawback policy will restrain the high growth of export, and the pressure of currency hedging brought by foreign exchange accounts is not very great, but credit and Bond increment will bring some pressure to the regulation of money supply.　　"he said.　　In fact, the central bank has raised reserve requirements three times in a row since the first half of this year, and the reserve requirement ratio for large financial institutions has reached 17% per cent, close to the highest level in recent years. From the late May, by institutional contributions, foreign exchange accounted for the growth of the decline, the Agricultural bank IPO and other factors such as the comprehensive impact of the financial side of the "drought", the money market interest rate jumped.　　Although the current level of financial tension has eased, but many institutions predict that the second half of the fund will appear neutral tight situation.　　Data show that in late June, the broad money supply (M2) balance of 67.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 18.46%, compared with the end of last quarter down 4%, has nearly 17% of the annual regulatory goals. The issuance of the 600 billion report predicts that the three-quarter issuance of bonds will exceed 600 billion yuan, roughly unchanged from the two quarter.　　In addition, the 200 billion yuan local government bonds issued only 43.8 billion yuan in the first half, is expected to focus on the three quarter distribution. According to the Treasury release plan issued by the Ministry of Finance, the three quarter of the total plan to issue 23 period, including the accounting-type coupon 18, voucher-type Savings Bonds 1 period, electronic savings Bonds 4, similar to the two quarter。 In addition, although commercial banks have strong demand for issuing bonds, the space for large commercial banks to issue subordinated debt is very limited, while the development scale of small and medium sized banks is generally small.　　But Non-bank financial institutions, such as finance companies and leasing companies, may increase their bond issuance efforts.　　Data show that in the first half, commercial banks issued a total of 80.95 billion yuan debt, ordinary bank debt of 1 billion yuan and convertible bonds 40 billion yuan. The report argues that the three-quarter bond yield is likely to shift upwards as the first half of the year's financial easing will not continue.