Debate: Medium-income traps approaching China

Hu Angang thinks China will never "strayed into", "whether the trap is a curse" led experts to argue that some of the industries that should be competing due to the loss of vitality of administrative monopoly, and thus drag the entire national economy. When a country's GDP per capita reaches about 3000 dollars and enters the ranks of middle-income countries, the contradictions that accumulate in rapid development tend to erupt, which is prone to social problems and economic stagnation, thus falling into the middle income trap.　　The main performance and basic characteristics of the "middle income trap" countries are: economic growth retreat or long-term stagnation, serious polarization of the rich and poor, excessive urbanization, growth and transformation dilemma, corruption problems, social conflict intensified, financial system fragile, democratic chaos and so on. At present, China's GDP per capita is over 3600 trillion dollars, entering the ranks of middle-income countries. The next five years, or "Twelve-Five", is a critical period for China to circumvent the "middle-income trap". Will China fall into the middle income trap?　　In order to further explore this important theory and practice, the People's Forum magazine for 6,575 netizens and 50 experts conducted an interview survey. Hu Angang: China may fall into the middle income trap the Chinese Academy of Sciences, director of the National Research Center of Tsinghua University, said four reasons could lead to China falling into the middle income trap: economic reasons. In the process of economic growth, the cost of various elements inevitably rises rapidly, and the marginal rewards of investment are decreasing, so the comparative advantage of China's development is decreasing; social reasons. Economic growth is also a "double-edged sword"; We are confronted with a "paradox of reform": reform is a process of adjusting vested interests, and it is a part of the stock of wealth.　　In the process of reform, the original catalyst, benefiting from a model of reform and becoming a vested interest group, may degenerate into an impediment to further reform, so that reform may become more difficult or even stagnant; These four factors are not isolated, they are interrelated, interact and influence each other, forming a unique "income gap trap" "political democratization trap" and so on. The key is whether we can find "traps" in time, accurately identify "traps" and intelligently avoid "traps".　　After 30 years of reform and opening-up practice, whether the party Central Committee, or the people, are more and more rational, more mature, but also more and more intelligent, China will never mistakenly into the "middle-income trap."　　Gao Wei: The middle income trap is just an example, not a curse. Gao Wei, an associate professor at the Central School of Economics, thinks: Not all middle-income countries are caught in a trap, and the "middle-income trap" is an example rather than a general theory, not a curse. Some basic characteristics of the "middle income trap" countries: income disparity widening, human capital accumulation is slow, the growth model is not successful, the financial system is weak, and the labor force transfer is difficult. Some developing countries, because of their special political needs, have introduced certain policies that restrict the transfer of labour, which are economically inefficient. China's hukou system isTypical of this aspect. A similar system would seriously impede the process of urbanization, drag down economic development, slow down the democratic process and corrupt. To adopt the gradual reform from the planned economy to the market economy, the reform of the political system generally lags behind the need of economic development. If this happens, the backwardness of administrative management and the breeding of corruption will be the main constraints of economic growth. Originally planned economy mainly countries will also create a lot of administrative monopoly, and some should be competitive industry because of administrative monopoly will lose vitality, and then drag the entire national economy.　　This factor has gradually emerged in China. Lin Yu: The tendency of corruption "falling into the potential" the survey results show that "official corruption" is the biggest incentive for China to fall into the "middle income trap". Lin Yu, a professor of politics and law at the Party School of the CPC Central Committee, said: whether official corruption is the biggest inducement for China to fall into the "middle income trap" is questionable. There is a reason that corruption is "getting worse".　　Among them, the corruption "falls the tendency" is one of them. In the 90 's, there was a tendency of corruption to fall, which was mainly manifested as the whereabouts of corrupt behavior to the people, as long as the behavior related to public power would change.　　Now the "Ke ji" is mainly manifested in the corruption from the high position to the whereabouts, that is, to the cadres and Ke ji below the whereabouts of cadres, which indicates that corruption in the grassroots infiltration. Ke ji cadres corruption is now very serious, because the number of cadres at this level, once the expansion will be very harmful, so should arouse our high vigilance.