Deposit reserve ratio still has room for increase

The central bank again decided on the 19th night to raise the reserve requirement rate of 0.5%, which is the second time in 9 days central bank to use such a quantitative control tool.　　Behind the SWIFT macro-adjustment of the central bank, there are a series of operational risks in China's economy, such as inflationary pressures, hot money inflows, and fast credit delivery, as well as the Government's consideration of the overall stability. Too fast credit is the most direct factor in forcing the central bank to raise reserve ratios again. Lu Lei, chief economist of Huatai Securities, pointed out that the credit policy had been tightening in the first three quarters of this year, which led to the failure of commercial banks to complete their credit targets this year, with banks ' impulses expected to be released in four quarters, and the likelihood that credit data would continue to rise in November.　　It does not rule out the possibility that the central bank will again take credit scale control. The current grim inflation situation is another reason why the central bank has been pushing the pace of macro-adjustment in the short term.　　Lu Lei said the current grim inflationary pressure will continue until next June, until the second half of next year is likely to be eased, the annual CPI data is expected to be 3.5% to 4% in the year. The director of the Galactic Securities Research institute new law points out that November CPI data is likely to continue to rise, the price of the Spring Festival will continue to increase the CPI data "high fever", contrary to the overall government stability goal; In addition, October M2 growth rate is 19.3%, M2 growth rate of 17% this year　　's regulatory targets will be difficult to achieve, which will urge the central bank to use effective quantitative controls during the year. National Gold Securities (600109) believes that since December has been a period of substantial growth in deposits, and in October, short-term directional deposits due to continue to exist, rather than a simple alternative nature, therefore, do not rule out the possibility of raising the reserve requirement rate again after the Spring Festival. Bohai Securities macro analyst Du Zhenzheng also believes that the current liquidity is too abundant, the recent high inflation continued to exceed expectations, is the central bank's recent frequent use of reserve policy is the main reason, because the number of tools to recover more obvious liquidity.　　As of 2011, there are still 2-3 possible increases in the reserve requirement ratio.　　Lu Lei points out that the central bank's two-time use of macro-adjustment tools to strengthen our judgment on the possibility of raising interest rates this year, from February to March and April to May is the time window for two rate hikes. Zhang Law also pointed out that the central bank may again use reserve ratio means, according to the calculation, the reserve ratio reached 20% banks is affordable, so with the current industry 18% of the reserve ratio calculation, the central bank can also carry out 4 moves; There are still 50 basis points that can be raised, plus a forecast that future CPI data will worsen, with 2 to 3 interest rate hikes in the future.　　Du Zhenzheng also said that it does not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates in December, and expects to raise interest rates 2 times in the future, at 25 basis points each time. Zuo, chief economist at Galaxy Securities, was the first economist to propose a possible interest rate adjustment for the government,She believes the increase in the reserve requirement ratio is entirely predictable. Current agricultural products (000061) and food prices soared, mainly financial speculation, the central bank to raise the reserve ratio is mainly aimed at liquidity management means, is logical and very necessary.　　The benchmark interest rate adjustment towards the end of the year will guide the lending next year, as well as the adjustment of interest rates before or after the end of the central bank. Banks ' effect on the increase and decrease in bank profits is about 0.3% Guotai banking analyst Wu Yonggang thinks the reserve requirement ratio is likely to rise further to 20%.　　It is estimated that each increase in the reserve ratio affects the bank's profit reduction of about 0.3%, as the deposit reserve ratio is higher, the more the more the negative impact on the bank will be greater. In general, the bank's deposit reserve will first use excess reserves, adjust bonds and other assets, and finally have to reduce lending funds. The increase of about 350 billion capital freeze. As the bank's excess reserve ratio is at a low level, Wu Yonggang expects banks to deposit reserves for the preparation of funds and may adjust their portfolios, with "central votes, bonds and loans likely to turn."　　"In addition, because the bank's overall loan capital reduction, but also to the real estate enterprises financing capacity has a certain impact." From a single point of view, the increase in the reserve requirement ratio of 0.5% to the bank's performance impact is limited. "But as the reserve ratio gets higher, the impact will be greater." "Wu Yonggang said.　　The Bank of Societe Generale (601166) Capital Operations Center research Director, chief economist Lu Commissar believes that, in view of inflationary pressures, the reserve ratio may even be raised to 23% next year. Because of the continued increase in foreign exchange accounts, although the central bank repeatedly raised the reserve requirement ratio, but the liquidity of the banking system has not changed the status quo. "But if the reserve ratio continues to rise, it does not rule out the possibility of a reversal of liquidity adequacy."　　Lu Commissar believes that to see whether the central bank is based on foreign exchange accounts targeted to hedge excess liquidity, or according to the expected situation and arrange hedging behavior. "If this is the latter, and if there is excessive hedging, it will have a real impact on the liquidity status of the banking system."　　Lu Commissar said that when the funds face tense situation will lead to interbank rates climbed. Stock market impact of the uncertainty of a-share increase in the deposit reserve ratio on a-share market impact, the industry is a certain divergence. Li Dahuan, director of the British Securities Institute, said that the recent plunge in a shares had partly reflected expectations of austerity, with the central bank raising the reserve requirement ratio mainly aimed at curbing inflation by shrinking liquidity, which would have a negative impact on the market, but investors need not be overly pessimistic,　　The earlier plunge has already digested the negative. Liu Dezhong, director of Minmetals Securities Research Institute, also believes that the reserve ratio adjustment distance from the last adjustment less than 10th, so high-frequency use of quantitative tools to shrink liquidity, the history of rare, indicating that managementFaced with the rapid response to the huge inflationary pressures and the determination to curb inflation, this measure has a negative impact on the real estate and banking sector, but the market has made a substantial correction in advance, bad digestion after the structural bull market will continue to deduce. Yixianrong, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the central bank's renewed reserve requirement ratio was aimed at tightening liquidity and reining in credit.　　For the market, the downside risks to the stock market remain. Gold Rock, chief economist of National Gold Securities, argues that the increase in reserve requirements will not have a big impact on equities, with stocks falling by as much as 5% per cent, while providing investors with a patient choice and a chance to wait patiently.　　Economic fundamentals support the stock market upward, the stock market bull trend has not changed. Day congenial chief analyst Yanyanying said the increase in reserve requirements could affect stocks from two channels: one is direct and the other indirect. The tightening is in the banking system, which theoretically does not directly affect the operation of the stock market, although as a biased message, it may slightly affect the short-term performance of the index, but will not constitute a real impact. (Securities times)