Economic slowdown does not exceed expectations of price drop also see Autumn grain

National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Laiyun was interviewed by reporters. This reporter Han Xiaodong intern reporter at COSL economic early period of rapid expansion of the "Xuhuo" is further squeezed. July, China's foreign demand, investment, consumption, industry, money supply, such as a series of indicators appeared "panoramic" growth rate fell.　　Although the amplitude is not obvious, but this is reflected in the economic heat has slowed down. Prices rose to 3.3% in July, hitting a new high of nearly 21 months, affected by a rebound in food prices such as vegetables, food and pork. Most experts believe that prices will not continue to rebound significantly in the future momentum, the whole year prices would be basically stable.　　But an uncertain factor is that, if autumn grain cut production and other factors to push up food prices, this round of price "small peak" the speed of the fall will be constrained.　　Some experts believe that the current economic situation does not trigger a significant change in the regulatory policy of the critical point, macro-control tone will remain stable. The fall did not exceed expectations of the National Bureau of Statistics, Central bank and the Ministry of Finance 11th, respectively, the macroeconomic, financial and financial data, so far July the main economic data. Data show that in July, the value of above-scale industrial growth increased by 13.4% Year-on-year, import and export growth of 22.7% and 38.1% respectively, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 17.9%;　　Compared with June (the investment data is compared with the previous June), there has been a slowdown in different degrees, which is rare in China's macroeconomic operation in recent years. Analysts pointed out that, compared with June, in addition to the import index fell 11.4%, the larger decline, the majority of indicators fall back is not obvious.　　The steady decline of many economic indicators shows that the heat of China's economic demand has declined to a certain extent. Wang Yiming, deputy dean of the National Development and Reform Commission's Macroeconomic Research Institute, said that many economic indicators in July, despite the downturn, did not exceed expectations. Concrete analysis, industrial growth in July than last month fell 0.3%, of which light, heavy industry growth is relatively close, and earlier heavy industry growth rate is significantly higher than the former, showing strict control of high energy-consuming industrial expansion and other regulatory policies have been effective.　　Consumption growth fell 0.4% from June, but overall remained strong, including housing sector consumption has a certain correction, the car fell back to the extent is not imagined. Investment, Wang Yiming that the current private investment growth has a certain rebound, state-owned or government investment growth has fallen, which is in line with the policy direction of macro-control. Despite the current growth in real estate investment is high, but the four quarter after the possibility of a slowdown.　　As a result of this year's fiscal increase, the future expansion of investment is still conditional, the annual growth of our investment is expected to not less than 20%. There are experts to remind, excluding the seasonal impact, the current economic chain downward pressure is worthy of attention, relevant departments need to introduce a timely hedging policy "backing." "In terms of industry, imports and other data, the July year-on-year discount rate further fall." Even the highestCPI, excluding price factors also showed a downward trend.　　"said a macro-economic researcher who declined to be named. In the light of the economic operation, the effect of early economic stimulus is gradually fading, while endogenous growth is being nurtured and strengthened. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that private investment has been growing faster than fixed investment growth this year.　　1-July private investment rose 31.9%, compared to urban fixed assets investment 7% higher. "The current slowdown in economic growth is still expected to be the result of the initiative led by macro-control." Tente, vice president and chief economist of Minsheng Securities, said that the slowdown in economic indicators was mainly due to three reasons, first, the impact of real estate regulation gradually emerged, and affected cement, construction and related consumer industries. The second is that monetary policy is actually relatively tight, M1 from the peak of 39% to 22.9%, the new regulatory authorities to strengthen the cooperation of the Bank letter of supervision, will also have a certain impact.　　Again, energy-saving emission reduction and other structural policy, has already seen results. "GDP is expected to grow at around 9.2% per cent in the three quarter, slowing further than the previous quarter, but this slowdown has not exceeded regulatory expectations." Since the second quarter, the state has introduced a series of hedging policies, such as promoting the development of the West and speeding up the construction of housing, which will show up in the four quarter.　　"Tente said.　　For the future adjustment policy trend, Societe Generale senior economist Lu County, said that before October, the macro policy will still be dominated. Prices or shocks fall for the important economic data of July, the only obvious upward indicator is the consumer price.　　For the follow-up price trend, experts on whether the peak of the year has been divided, but it is generally believed that July 3.3% of the CPI rise to the current round of the "small peak" area of price rebound. Tente that the July CPI increase should be the peak of the year, influenced by the drop-tail factor and the slowing economy. An uncertain factor in future prices is the trend of food prices, the recent international market price of wheat rose.　　If food prices do not occur significantly higher, the four quarter of China's CPI may fall to below 2%. In this regard, Wang Yiming said that there will be no sharp rebound in prices in the next few months, but for the July CPI is the highest point of the year, it is still difficult to say.　　The future of the tail-end factors on the impact of prices will gradually weaken, will hedge off the rise in agricultural prices and other new price factors. Wang Tongsan, director of the Institute of Quantitative Economics at the Academy of Social Sciences, argues that policy measures such as real estate regulation will also lead to a fall in the price index and reduce the pressure of price increases. There is no obvious inflationary pressure in our country for the time being, it is not a big problem to realize the regulation target of 3% CPI gain at the beginning.