Experts and scholars agree that super trillion credit is flowing into property market

According to the latest statistics from the People's Bank of China, financial institutions in the first half of this year totaled about 7.37 trillion yuan in yuan loans, far exceeding the "5 trillion yuan a year" target set at the beginning. At the same time, some regions of the economic fundamentals of the "macro-and micro-departure" situation, the macro-warming statistics and micro-business operations do not coincide. Previously, credit funds into the stock market and the real estate markets.　　And experts and scholars generally agree that the number is "Super trillion". The most quantified measurement: trillions of dollars into the property market last week, in the second day of the central bank's announcement of a surge in credit in June, the People's Daily published in nearly half a version of the article entitled "How to see the volume of credit", clearly pointed out that the first half of the 7.37 trillion yuan loans mainly to railways, highways,　　Loans to small and medium-sized enterprises are still not much, and "do not rule out a part of the credit funds in various ways into the stock market, property markets and other assets." At the end of last month, Weiganing, vice Minister of macroeconomics at the State Council's Development Research Center, said that more than a trillion of funds in the first half of the year were flowing into asset markets such as property and equities. This is the most quantified measure of the amount of credit that the institution has made to date, and it is noteworthy that, despite the absence of the evidence, academia has little objection to the figure.　　In fact, at the end of June, Cheng, vice chairman of the NPC Standing Committee, said that credit has grown rapidly since the first quarter of this year, and that some of the money has flowed into the stock and property markets, which is one of the reasons for the temporary warming of the stock market and the property market.　　"King of the Earth" to bring the confusion: do not invest in the stock market, the property market to vote what? Zenggang, director of the Banking Research Institute of China Academy of Social Sciences, said to the Beijing Morning News reporter that in the current overall economic recovery process, enterprises still face overcapacity problem, the lack of investment in the production and operation of the power of capital.　　At the same time, banks ' credit policies are exceptionally loose, and companies that get credit are unwilling to invest in the real economy, and will naturally turn to investment and push up asset markets such as real estate and equities, as evidenced by foreign experience. In fact, state-owned enterprises are indeed holding heavily into the real estate market. Beijing's recent continuous emergence of the two "king", are central enterprises subordinate companies, one is the Chinese group, one is China Electronics group. Pan Shiyi, chairman of Soho China, said the rationale behind it was "too much money". He argues that because of overcapacity, it is impossible for the group to build a chemical plant, and it is impossible for China Electronics group to build an electronics factory, as the coastal electronics industry is still closed.　　In this way, money can only go to real estate and stock markets. Multiple paths into the stock market the final face is a compliance fund. Li Yongsen, a researcher at the Institute of Finance and Securities at Renmin University of China, said that the illegal entry of credit funds into the stock market has been difficult to quantify. In the actual operation, the credit funds from the bank will not directly violate the stock market, but to go through manyLinks, often in the last link to the face of compliance funds. For example, the simplest way is: Although the enterprise originally has sufficient funds to meet the needs of its production and operation, but the company put its own funds into the stock market, and to the bank to apply for loans for normal production and operation.　　In day-to-day operations, these loans are often expressed as medium and short-term liquidity loans, the bank's approval of such loans is relatively loose. In recent years, the financial supervision Department has been investigating the illegal funds entering the market, summed up a variety of illegal routes. For example, an enterprise group may use the acceptance bill to get bank funds internally. Enterprises and major shareholders and subsidiaries, such as "affiliated enterprises" agreed to issue a bill without physical transactions, and then to the commercial banks discounted access to bank funds. Some of the funds obtained are reserved for the next operation margin, each discount after the derivation of funds, the reincarnation of the creation of false paper loans.　　In addition, in terms of personal behaviour, false mortgages, mortgage increases, revolving loans and illegal credit cards can all be used as a means of acquiring bank funds.　　The Real estate investment division endurance period? The government is in a dilemma. Shusong, deputy director of the financial Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that the first key to our response to the international financial crisis is government investment, which is dominated by government demand. But the government's fiscal investment cannot always be a big project, and its power is bound to weaken gradually. The lesson of the 1998 was that the government's one-foot throttle has weakened, leading to a resurgence of economic recovery. At that time the real economic pull up is the 1999 housing reform, which led to domestic demand market.　　He said that if the current China through a large number of credit to stimulate the real estate market recovery, and tolerate a period of price revaluation, will be expected to pull furniture, decoration and building materials, such as a range of industries investment.　　"Sunshine Private" Shenzhen Golden Investment Management Co., Ltd. Investment director Deng Jijun that, in view of the importance of real estate investment to the overall economic recovery, the government is now in a dilemma, and believes that in the absence of a significant improvement in external demand, the government's monetary policy will not change even if there is some adjustment. Guo, director of the China Banking Research Center at the Central University of Finance and Economics, argues that the surge in bank credit has eased real estate developers ' tight finances while raising public inflation expectations and pushing up house prices, but this rise is not based on the demand for home ownership, which poses a potential risk to banks. Morning paper reporter Li Joe experts point of view 7 trillion credit is enough to "protect the eight" liquidity tigers can return to cages as soon as possible shusong points out that banks around the world are now studying how overly loose monetary policy can be withdrawn, that is, when and how to recycle liquidity.　　This is a long-standing problem for central banks. The central bank has taken early-warning action, and "Optimizing the credit Structure" will be the future goal of the central bank. In Thursday, on the second day of a surge in credit in June, the central bank issued 50 billion 1-year bills and 50 billion 3-month notes in the open market, which returnedThe currency is 100 billion yuan. This is the largest one-day central vote since last September, and the bank's first 1-year vote in 7 months. Guotai researcher Jiang Su that the central bank's monetary policy fine-tuning has been established.　　The issuance of the 1-year central vote means a substantial extension of the capital freeze, since the bank's longest freeze was only 3 months. In addition to restarting the 1-year vote, the central bank's other recent operations in the open market also feature fine-tuning. In the first 1 days of the central bank's announcement of a surge in credit in June, the central bank reached its highest level in a single-day capital by 170 billion yuan in the open market through its repo money.　　In addition, when the central bank carried out a positive repurchase on the last trading day of last month, positive repo rates rose for the first time since the end of last year.　　At the end of last month, the China Banking Regulatory Commission also issued "notice on further strengthening credit management" to commercial banks, requiring banks to strictly control the flow of loans, ensure loans to be released into the real economy, meet the real economic needs and prevent the illegal flow of credit funds into the capital markets and real estate markets. However, the agency believes that the measures are still insufficient. Ma, chief economist at Deutsche Bank in Greater China, said the bank's calculations have increased lending at 1 time times the rate of monetary expansion required to "protect 8" of gross domestic product (GDP). According to the monetary growth rate, the 2nd quarter of this year's year-on-year GDP growth is likely to reach 18%, which is the highest record since 1991, far more than the "Paul 8" target. If loans and currencies continue to grow at this rate, it will lead to uncontrollable inflation, bad bank loans and asset bubbles.　　In this case, only the use of "fine-tuning" means, including more central votes, window guidance, risk guidance and other soft measures, it is difficult to effectively curb the effect of excessive liquidity expansion. Ma believes that there are only two types of measures that can really effectively curb the surge in lending, one is a rapid slowdown in project approval and the second is the reopening of quarterly and monthly loan quotas. In the short run, it is not feasible for regulators to adopt these measures, but it would be too late to wait until 6 months later. Li Joe