Experts say 1.16 trillion of credit is flowing into the stock market

Prev Breakthrough 3,000 point is the economic recovery or financial bubble although China's real economy is still suffering from the impact of the international financial crisis, but since the first half of this year, as the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market climbed, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen more than 60%, creating the second half of 1992, the largest six months of gains　　Shareholders are beginning to believe that "the time for the solution is coming". Especially in last week, a shares once again exerting force, the market in a week to 3,000 points "three knocks" not fruit, finally in June 30 successful breakthrough.　　For a time, 3,000 points, this in the hearts of investors "psychological defense" and in the analysis of the "Cattle bear demarcation Point" will become the focus of the market debate. Or a coincidence, just before the market breakthrough 3,000, a central think-tank warned that China's asset prices have been bubbles, the recent upsurge in equity markets, and credit funds illegally into the stock market, the first 5 months of this year, more than 1 trillion yuan in new loans to the stock market, "which prompted the formation of the financial bubble　　”。　　Break 3200 in the year? June 30, 2009 1:12 P.M., Prev 3000 breakthrough mark.　　This is the first time since June 12, 2008, Prev Close below 3,000 points, the first to regain the gateway. "The speed at which the market recovers is too fast to be imagined. "In the face of the current market, Eikonsoft, a financial analyst at the state advisory, told China Economic Weekly that the index rise is based on the" roller coaster ", as China's real economy is recovering.　　Earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics experts had expected two quarters of GDP growth rate is expected to be close to 8%, much more than previous market expectations, the economic rebound in the bottom of the obvious signs.　　According to JPMorgan's June 30 analysis, the Shanghai Composite Index could break 3,200 in the year, and H-shares will remain strong in the second half, even if there is a technical adjustment, the downward range will not be very large. "3,000 points are still critical.　　"A brokerage analyst told the China Economic Weekly, because of the ups and downs, the company's analysts in the internal meetings of the debate is very large, especially in the first half of the last trading day, the Shanghai and Shenzhen market both fell back to the green plate to accept."　　Wanguo analyst Gui Haoming to reporters, and 2700-2900 points, compared to 3,000 points, although the index is not too high, but the former Chong is the hundred number of close, now is the thousands of close, so its influence is completely different, the market's operating posture is more people's attention. Gui Haoming said that at present, the international stock market at the end of the month due to various kinds of news driven by the rise of the domestic stock market is very favorable. Earlier, due to the international authority of the world economy made a pessimistic forecast, once led to the overseas stock market for some time adjustment. And now the rise of overseas stock market is effective in the latest release of some positive economic data.　　Obviously, this kind of rise pattern, has the domestic stock market to be more helpful. Andy Xie, director of Rose Stone consultancy, has previously accepted the China Economic Weekly"The bear market rally is a killing machine," he said in an interview.　　He said China and the world's real economy had not yet improved, and the real demand for resources and commodities remained weak, but speculation in speculative funds led to abnormally rising commodity and resource prices, which were underpinned only by short-term factors and that a shares would soon return to bear markets.　　Unlike Andy Xie, JPMorgan's chief China economist, Gong, is now the start of a bull market. He told the media that the 3,000 point is definitely not the top of the market this year, the domestic capital market has just begun, the second half in addition to bank performance will be significantly increased, the real estate industry and the automotive industry performance has been further improved.　　The three major sectors of the capital market will also face a big round of gains.　　Gong that the recovery and growth of China's economy is not just investment-driven, because the performance of Chinese consumers has exceeded expectations, consumption is mainly manifested in two aspects, on the one hand, real estate transactions are very buoyant, on the other hand, car sales. For example, he said: Shenzhen last year trough a single month of real estate turnover is about 200,000 square meters, the stock of Shenzhen at that time about more than 5 million square meters, according to a single monthly deal 200,000 calculation, 5 million square meters to 25 months digest inventory, but in recent months, Shenzhen turnover per month is 500,000-600,000 square meters, digest　　According to this calculation, 10 months inventory is over, why some cities in China now prices began to rise, because inventory digestion too fast.　　Qiang, a professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics, told China Economic Weekly that an important reference now is the forthcoming semi-annual macroeconomic data and listed companies, as this will greatly affect the movements of the stock market. Citic Securities analyst Xu Ting also believes that the decision to determine the evolution of the second half of China's stock market factors, the first policy guidance still supports the continued rise in stock market, and secondly, the continuation of the market depends on whether China's economic recovery is more than expected, if the two quarter GDP growth of more than 7.5%, the second　　will help China's stock market continue to rise.　　The main reason for the market's drive is that policy support and liquidity are plentiful. At the end of 2008, the government began to stimulate the market through the "4 trillion plan" and the various industry revitalization plans. Subsequently, the financial, real estate, construction and other plates have soared.　　At the same time, the large-scale credit of commercial banks to the regulation of the macro-economic improvement quite effective. Sources said that June new loans may be on the up again, is expected to break through 1 trillion yuan.　　Previously, 4 May loans were put into 591.8 billion yuan and 664.5 billion yuan respectively. Prior to this, the CBRC issued "notice on further strengthening credit management" to all policy banks, state-owned commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks and postal Savings Bank, requiring the banking sector to ensure that credit funds enter the real economy and prevent enterprises from using the discount arbitrage of bills to "idling" credit funds, No credit can be deposited by loan to prevent illegal inflow of credit funds into capital market and premisesProduction and other fields.　　The last May half of the new credit in the "Self circulation"? Some say the real economic upturn is a sign of rising stock markets.　　But that seems unusual in the context of the financial crisis. Weiganing, Vice minister of macroeconomics at the Development Research Center of the State Council June 27, said in the "Beijing International Financial Forum 2009 Summer Report", according to his calculations, the first half, about 20% of the credit flow into the stock market, about 30% of the credit funds into the bill market. That means about half of the bank's money is circulating within the financial system itself.　　The result, he argues, is to push the financial bubble into shape. "Although he has repeatedly stressed that this is only his personal point of view and does not represent the unit, the survey background is thought-provoking," he said.　　A broker analyst told reporters.　　Weiganing said that as of May, credit for domestic commercial banks reached 5.8 trillion yuan this year, exceeding the 2008 credit increment. In this respect, some experts suggested that, under such a rapid loan growth, the financing of SMEs has not been resolved?　　But the stock market, the property market is continuously warmed up? Weiganing said that according to 5.8 trillion of the loan size calculation, that is, about 1.16 trillion of credit funds into the stock market.　　In addition, the central bank published data showed that the first five months of this year, the amount of paper financing is 1.7 trillion yuan, accounting for the total credit rate of about 30%. "When money circulates in the financial system, expands itself, and does not serve the real economy, we think it is a financial bubble." Weiganing said, "The current rapid growth of large sums of money within the financial system of the self-circulation, it is very easy to push up the stock price, the formation of a new financial bubble, but also push up the price of real estate."　　"For the other half of the money, Weiganing pointed out that although this part of the money to the real economy, but most of the flow to local government projects, and to small and medium-sized enterprises have very few funds." Weiganing said that to actively guide the credit funds into the real economy, the first is to rectify the bill market, to prevent the bill funds self circulation, not for the real economy services; In addition, the regulatory authorities should strengthen the regulation of the flow of credit funds to guide the flow of capital to small and medium-sized enterprises.