Experts say 2020 house prices are no longer as crazy as they are now

Author: Trainee reporter Shi Jun "' 9 29 ' New deal is clear and strengthened before ' 10 ', but it still depends on the central and local game, the root lies in the importance of land transfer policy and the influence of related groups." "In the near future by the East Asia Xinhua real Estate and SouFun, the sixth stage of the People's home, senior financial commentator Li Yijian said.　　Experts at the meeting said that the housing prices fell little space, the reason is the current land market problems, including land supply planning can not be completed, storage, demolition costs and rural land can not be transferred. The timing of the introduction of land recruitment system in 2004 is not appropriate. Because before the policy was implemented, local governments and local land reserve centres did not have the land to reserve, eager to introduce policies, resulting in a sharp decline in land supply for three consecutive years thereafter. "The Chen Baoqun analysis of the associate dean of the Joint Research Institute believes that there should be a buffer period before the implementation of market-oriented land supply." "Moreover, in the supply of land, there is a serious disconnect from market demand and the actual supply of land does not even reach 50% of the planned supply." "Chen Baoqun pointed out that with the current land storage, demolition costs increase, housing prices fall back space is limited. "The local government has no reserve land on hand, it is now to sell, so that after the listing can the price down?" "Li Yijian said that China's current situation, land ownership of the country, the rural areas have a red line of arable land, urban-rural dualistic system and rural land can not be circulated, these are to urban construction land resource scarcity plays a supporting role. And the acceleration of China's urbanization process will also give birth to real estate demand. "From the time of demand, it should peak from 2015 to 2020, then growth will weaken, and as time goes on and demand grows, there will be a slow increase, and it is believed that in 2020, house prices will not continue to grow as fast as they are now." ”