Fiscal policy may shift to moderately positive economic recovery with obstacles

At the second-quarter macroeconomic forum of Renmin University, held on June 27, Yin Cheng, deputy director of the National People's Congress, warned that the fiscal deficit would exceed expectations throughout the year and that "positive" fiscal policy was facing a "moderately positive" problem. The reason he gave was that real fiscal revenues were falling in central and local areas, and spending was accelerating significantly.　　If local and private investment cannot keep up, relying solely on government investment will bring a heavy financial burden. The Treasury originally expected revenue growth of 8% per cent this year, measured by a 950 billion trillion dollar deficit, which accounted for about 3% per cent of gross domestic product this year.　　The reality is that, in the first 5 months of this year, the national revenue only completed 40% of the budget, down 6.7% from a year earlier; This rise and fall, let Yin Cheng some worry: "950 billion of the deficit this year appears to be impossible to stop, this is our positive fiscal policy to be ' moderate ' reason."　　"However, Wang Yiming, deputy dean of the National Development and Reform Commission's Macroeconomic Research Institute, at a meeting on June 27, suggested that in order to maintain policy continuity, it is not necessary to adjust the current regulatory policy," can be adjusted according to changes in the situation, but expansionary fiscal policy and monetary policy basic framework can not move now　　He suggested that the second half of the year needs to speed up private investment to make up for the financial pressure brought by government investment, in addition to further expand consumption, cultivate new economic growth point to promote the economy into endogenous growth.　　According to reports, the State Council will hold a standing meeting on July 15 to discuss the first half of the economic situation, the deployment of the second half of the economic work.　　Economic recovery further upstream still exist obstacles according to the National Development and Reform Commission June 29 report, since June, with the economic stabilization, coupled with the high temperature in most areas, the national electricity load and electricity are more obvious growth. According to the National Grid and the Southern power grid dispatch express statistics, as of June 23, the country has a total of Hebei, Hubei, Jiangxi, Sichuan, Guangxi, Yunnan, Hainan, Xinjiang, 8 provinces and regions of electricity load is a record high.　　It is expected that June will reverse the 8 consecutive months of negative output growth since last October. But a report from the National Bureau of Statistics on June 23 also showed that the 2-quarter economic growth was expected to reach 8% per cent on a month-on-month basis.　　However, "a steady rebound in the domestic economy, there are still many obstacles to further smooth upward." Changbaoliang, deputy director of the Ministry of Economic forecasting of the National Information Center, recently conducted research around the country, he found that the short-term government investment has quickly pulled up the economy, but after this, private investment can follow up as the main driving force, become a major problem. "It will not be easy for the Chinese economy to continue to recover to a certain extent."　　"He also found in the local research, the current consumer market is a hot spot uncertainty." For example, the current rapid growth of car consumption is a supporting factor, such as Weifang, Zibo, Zaozhuang three-tier urban residents income growth quickly,The willingness to consume cars is strong, and the growth in real estate sales is, in part, the result of residential demand rather than investment demand, and remains to be seen.　　The NPC Standing Committee recently organized 4 thematic groups to carry out supervision and research on four major aspects of affordable housing, education and people's health, engineering innovation and technology adjustment, and rural infrastructure construction in 19 provinces and cities nationwide. Yin Cheng in late June to the Inner Mongolia Wulanchabu City and other place led the investigation.　　He found that at present, the Central investment Fund is huge, but the local financial support is not enough, and private investment has not played a role, some of the project selection and early preparation is not adequate, lower standards, a considerable number of people's livelihood projects, economic benefits unsatisfactory. According to the figures released by the Ministry of Finance, in 2009, 908 billion of the central government's public investment budget arrangement, 57.7% of the funds for people's livelihood projects and post-disaster reconstruction.　　Another 5.4% invested in the protection of housing construction funds, 27.8% into agricultural infrastructure and rural livelihood projects, such as construction funds.　　The second half needs to accelerate the change of endogenous growth. Facing the grim situation, Wang Yiming, deputy dean of the National Development and Reform Commission's Macroeconomic Research Institute, suggested that there would be no recovery in the short term, as well as domestic industry is still depressed, inflation may be intensified in the medium term, private investment has not been large-scale follow-up "Our goal is to form an internal mechanism for economic stability, to have endogenous strength to generate a stable economic recovery, to maintain the growth rate of 7%-8% while not expanding, while promoting policy adjustment and structural reform."　　"he said.　　He suggested that, on the one hand, fine-tuning the regulation policy, on the other hand, it is necessary to quicken the reform of income distribution system to stimulate the steady growth of consumption.　　Third, speed up research on the management of Equity investment fund, start the gem market, study a series of policies to encourage private investment, including how to relax private capital into some monopolistic areas of access restrictions, including the further opening of the service market, to further stimulate private investment.　　There is to cultivate new economic growth point, using the current favorable opportunity to speed up the development of resource-oriented product pricing mechanism reform. Some reforms in other areas should be pursued. This includes the macroeconomic aspects of fiscal and financial reform, "now also discussing the imposition of property taxes, environmental taxes, how to reduce local dependence on land transfer, these need to design."　　"he said. And to increase the momentum of endogenous growth, the fundamental point is to increase the disposable income and purchasing power of the residents, "I think lift the real estate market price for all levels of government revenue has great benefits, but for the real estate recovery is absolutely not good."　　"he said. Currently, research institutions have suggested that the State take measures to prevent the excessive growth of house prices.