Foreign exchange accounts for the continued high growth of liquidity return pressure is still large

Rainy, a cartographic source, said the new foreign exchange accounted for 374.7 billion yuan in April, an increase of about 100 billion yuan last month, and continued its high growth since the second half of last year.　　The excess liquidity caused by the increase in foreign exchange accounts has intensified. In addition, the central bank announced 11th financial Statistics April, as at the end of April 2010, M2 growth of 21.48%, down 1.01% from last month, M1 growth of 31.25%, compared with last month's rebound 1.31%.　　Liquidity remains to be hedged. ⊙ reporter Li Dandan Miaoyan 0 edition of April New foreign exchange accounted for about 1.1225 trillion according to the reporter rough calculation, the first 4 months of this year, the new foreign exchange accounted for about 1.1225 trillion yuan. An industry insider, due to the currency multiplier effect, the increase in foreign exchange accounts will lead to a substantial increase in the money supply, resulting in increased liquidity. Assuming that the average money multiplier for the first 4 months of the year is 4, the increase in the money supply generated by the $1.1225 trillion new foreign exchange account will be as high as 4.5 trillion yuan.　　In fact, the currency multiplier may be slightly above 4, the central bank's first-quarter monetary policy report revealed that the currency multiplier at the end of March was 4.35, 0.08 and 0.24 higher than the previous year and the year-end, and the currency's ability to expand was still strong.　　It may be that the central bank raised the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% on 10th and recovered about 320 billion yuan from the market, considering that the excess of foreign exchange accounted for excessive liquidity. A bank Financial market department concerned Personage said, with the rapid expansion of China's foreign trade, the gradual opening of capital projects and exchange reform after the revaluation of the renminbi, the annual increase in foreign exchange accounted for a year.　　The rise of foreign exchange accounts led to the rapid expansion of the currency, the path of the central bank's monetary creation has also changed markedly. He believes that the current good growth prospects for China's economy, the revaluation of the renminbi and the lower interest rates abroad will lead to more direct inflows of international capital or via.　　Due to the contraction of domestic bank credit, the investment of foreign exchange in the banking system will become the main channel of money creation this year, and become one of the important sources of capital supply in inter-bank market. M1, M2 "pour scissors" rebound in addition to the liquidity caused by foreign exchange, the banking system itself is also very abundant liquidity.　　Data show that by the end of April 2010, China's broad currency (M2) balance of 65.66 trillion yuan, narrow currency (M1) balance of 23.39 trillion yuan, currency liquidity ratio reached 35.62%, compared with the 2 March a small increase. M2, a senior economist at Societe Generale, said the growth rate was lower than expected and could be linked to an increase in Tiyan's fiscal deposits, which resulted in a decrease in liquidity and a 344.2 billion rise in fiscal deposits in April.　He expected the next month M2 will fall back to 18%-21%, but to achieve a level of not higher than 17%, the future needs to strengthen the relevant regulatory efforts.　Unlike the M2 slowdown, the year-on-year increase in M1 in April was higher than last month.　　The "pour scissors", which fell back in March, rebounded again, and the difference between M1 and M2 widened from 7.44% in March to 9.77%.　　Guo, director of the Banking Research Center at the Central University of Finance and Economics, pointed out that the M1 is more appropriate than the M2 2%-3%, and that higher than 5 points may be at risk of inflation. Lu Commissar also believes that all these points to the further activation of the currency, suggesting that the risk of inflation is still to be released. From the point of view of controlling inflation risk, only the central bank's liquidity tightening is faster than the monetary inflation pressure caused by the speed of money circulation, the future inflation may be calmed down. He also pointed out that if the 3-year central vote does not adjust to weekly distribution, there will be a further increase in the reserve requirement ratio in June.