Goldman Sachs: This year GDP growth or 10.1% policy will have the pressure

November 1 Afternoon news Goldman Sachs/Gaohua held a 2010-2011 review and outlook for the media meeting, Goldman Sachs economists are optimistic about economic growth, forecast GDP growth of 10.1% this year, the company's earnings prospects are strong, but inflationary pressure is increasing, October CPI or over 4%, the policy has maintained pressure,　　Elastic collocation will become the normal. 2010 GDP or 10.1% Goldman Sachs China economist Helen Qiao at that from the 2 quarter to the 3 quarter, economic growth quickly rebounded to long-term trend level, inflationary pressure is increasingly obvious.　　She believes that next year's economic growth will stabilize, China's stable economic growth is sustainable. For the factors that underpin sustainable economic growth, Helen Qiao at points out that domestic demand has become a major growth driver and that growth will be more balanced, while domestic demand and external demand tend to be stable, but external demand will be less intense than in the previous cycle; In addition, China's exports to the United States, the European Union and so on to the national dependence gradually　　The increase in exports to the rest of the world, coupled with tighter financial conditions, has helped to strengthen policymakers ' credibility in macro-policy management, "the current policy is not very tight"; she noted that "Twelve-Five" plans to determine the key position of domestic demand will balance consumption and investment.　　Qiao Hong expects 2010 GDP to reach 10.1% and 10% next year.　　The policy will have a tight mix. While optimistic about growth, Songyusheng, a Chinese economist at Goldman Sachs, said the CPI could reach 4% to 4.1% by October.　　And in the two-quarter tightening, the three-quarter is in effect relaxing, and he believes there will be some adjustments to the policy side in the short term as inflationary pressures rise. Goldman Sachs reported that "inflation expectations and adjustments in future prices and resource tax policies will dominate future monetary policy direction". The focus of economic policy will shift to control inflation, with the upcoming Central Economic Work conference in December a key aspect.　　The report points out that under the background of economic restructuring, the policy of "maintaining pressure" and "elastic collocation" will become the norm. However, monetary policy has not really tightened, and has not yet entered the interest rate channel.　　Songyusheng said that one of the characteristics of the country's policy formulation is rapid response, quick action, "there will be no serious inflation in this case", there is no need for the so-called rate hike cycle.　　Zhu Yue, Goldman Sachs ' chief China strategist, expects the CPI to stabilise by the end of the year, and she "expects the overall CPI level to peak in October".　　The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index earnings per share growth of 29.3% Zhu Yue expected 2011 China's economic growth will be higher than the market expectations.　　In this macroeconomic fundamentals, she pointed out that "profitability is the main driving factor in achieving the target position, and the valuation multiples are likely to widen further". She pointed out that the company's earnings prospects are strong, there may be further upward space. Among them, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index 2010 earnings per share growth average will reach 29.3%. After analysis,She thinks 50% of the plate's earnings will be higher than market expectations, mainly cyclical stocks. On the plate allocation, Zhu Yue that, despite the recent rise in share prices, valuations are not too high in multiples.　　She says the banking sector is at the bottom of the valuation and is a focus of revaluation, as well as overweight cyclical stocks that have lagged behind. She recommends a high distribution of banks, building materials, paper making, packaging, industry, integrated groups, business services, retailing, hotels, consumer durables, apparel and transportation, and low distribution of oil and gas and utilities. (Super Yan from Beijing)