Guilin tourism Performance reversal to achieve a leap-forward growth

We believe that Guilin tourism (000978) master and integrate exclusive tourism resources to form a tourism product chain representing the landscape of Guilin, and with the help of policy support, traffic improvement and other good machines, to achieve a higher level of profitability. It is expected that the company's 2010-2012-year performance growth is still more optimistic, the realization of operating income of 592 million yuan, 823 million yuan, 853 million yuan, the year-on-year growth of 179%, 39%, 3.6%, the realization of the net profit of 117 million yuan, 171 million yuan, 199 million yuan, year-on-year growth of 246% , 46% and 17%, earnings per share of 0.32 yuan, 0.47 yuan, 0.55 yuan respectively. The current company's share price is 20.32 times times the 2010-year dynamic, at its lowest point in history, and the company's valuations are much more attractive than the average valuations of comparable companies in the industry.　　Given the significant reversal of the company's performance and rapid growth, it gives a "buy" investment rating. The company is the master and integrator of Guilin core tourism resources. The company has the Lijiang Scenic area, Silver Rock, Longsheng Hot Springs, rivers Four lakes, Danxia and other high-quality regional tourism resources, with relatively exclusive core competitiveness of resources.　　The company's development strategy is clear, the future will be through the integration of large Guilin tourism resources, so as to form a representative of Guilin landscape brand, complete, leading the market tourism product chain, and with the help of national policy support, traffic accessibility improvement and other good machines, to achieve a higher level of profitability. "Jiang River Four Lakes" round the river system tour is the company's main future profit growth point. "The river Four Rivers" Night tour is the present Guilin urban area important nocturnal sightseeing product, since the business, its scenic spot visitor quantity average annual natural growth rate is about 20%, 2009 realizes the loss and the substantial Shang about 11.01 million yuan. In June this year, the company will launch the "City-day", "the middle of Guilin landscape painting", VIP package ship and other innovative products, is expected to integrate through marketing channels, mining market potential, improve its market competitiveness.　　The total number of visitors in 2010 is expected to reach 890,000, an increase of 28%, the realization of 80.5495 million yuan in revenue, net profit of 11.39 million yuan, the year-on-year growth of 44%, 1224%, after the incubation period, the expected annual tourist reception will be increased to 1 million people above, the annual contribution profit of about 50 million yuan. The company will achieve leapfrog growth in 2010. The growth factor mainly comes from two major aspects: one is the growth of the original business of the company. Lijiang River cruise Ship reception volume in the industry boom in the rebound; Silver Rock, Fung, Longsheng Hot Springs benefited from ticket price increase and traffic improvement; Xiangshan and seven-star tickets are divided into steady growth of income, the passenger and gas business is also basically stable growth, and the second is the contribution of directional additional projects.　　"Lijiang Waterfall Hotel" and "Two Rivers Four Lakes" Ring river water Project and table, Silver rock reconstruction and expansion of the second phase of the project in the Tourist reception center June into the merchandise sales business, of which, "Two Rivers Four Lakes" Ring river system project will be the main profit contributor. Risk factors: Force majeure risk, market competitionRisk, new project cultivation risk. Rating Date Research institute researcher latest rating target price range 2010-6-1 Shanxi securities bengkalis buy 14. 00-20. 00 2010-5-26 Hongyuan Securities Sun Yan buy 2010-4-29 China Silver International von Snow held in 2010-4-29 Societe Generale Securities Liu Ludan recommended 2010-4-29 Securities Liao issued a cautious recommendation 2010-4-29 investment securities had recommended 17. 92 2010-4-7 China Merchants Securities Lin Zhouyong strongly recommended 2010-3-30 Guotai Wangrui cautious overweight 15. 4 2010-3-26 Citic Securities She held in 2010-3-26 Yuan Securities Wei Fangzhen held 2010-3-26 Wanguo Chen Haiming increased the 2010-3-26 Oriental Securities Yang Chunyan increased 16 2010-3-26 gold securities to buy thin EPS (yuan) 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E Forecast Home number----16 16 12 average 0. 3001 0. 1308 0. 1910 0. 2960 0. 3967 0. 4663 median----0. 2971 0. 4038 0. 4910 Max----0. 3846 0. 4915 0. 5776 minimum Value-----0. 1777 0. 2228 0. 2473 standard deviation----0. 0557 0. 0797 0. 0996 industry average 0. 2565 0. 1654 0. 2056 0. 3275 0. 4058 0. 4772 Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 average 0. 7512 0. 6013 0. 6099 0. 8100 0. 9914 1. 2281