Housing Enterprises leading Sun report predicts four-quarter house prices will fall

This reporter Chen Xiaoying shenzhen report every time macro-control, are testing the management level of real estate developers.　　As of August 11, investment, Vanke, poly, gold, China and the sea semi-annual report all out, the performance of the report is beautiful at the same time, is the control continues to bring the market turnover decline, how to protect the growth of the next year's performance is the most critical thing for developers. And real estate leader of the future market judgment is consistent, with September large listings, the four quarter hot city housing prices will inevitably fall.　　The only option developers face is to win sales by cutting prices.　　China newspaper performance mixed because of the 2009-year property market hot, the first half of the year developers are very beautiful, but reflects the performance of the current stage is more direct sales. August 10, Vanke released the report showed that the first half of Vanke achieved sales area of 3.202 million square meters, sales amount of 36.77 billion yuan. As of the middle period, Vanke has 5.3 million square meters of sales resources have not participated in the settlement, the total contract value of about 57.3 billion yuan, respectively, compared with the beginning of the year 41.3% and 50%.　　January-July Vanke Cumulative sales amount of 45.21 billion yuan.　　Vanke President Yu Liang said that considering a substantial increase in the open resources, Vanke this year's operating income will be low before the high situation, the annual performance growth can be expected.　　Because of Shanghai's soaring housing prices, the bubble increased, the cumulative risk increased, Vanke 2009 years will not take the land in Shanghai, but Jindi has always been the Shanghai region as the company's development center of gravity, which in the macro-control of the first-tier cities under the policy is very injured. Data show that 1-7-month accumulation of 572,100 square meters to achieve the contract, down 44.9% from a year earlier;　　Kim's performance growth is under a big test next year.　　In this respect, Jin Dong Xu Jiajun said, the first half of the sales area and sales amount year-on-year decline is the main reason for the first half of the inventory is less, there is no sufficient availability for sale, the second half of the new sales resources 2 million square meters. The total profit for the first half of 2010 was 2.432 billion yuan, an increase of 20.91%.　　January-July, the company signed an area of 3.1165 million square meters, to achieve the signing amount of 25.425 billion yuan, sales area is similar, but the amount of sales but with Vanke difference over tens of billions.　　China Life A real estate researcher told reporters that last year, the agency generally optimistic about Poly, think the stamina growth is full, but Vanke in the breakthrough management bottlenecks, back into the stable growth of the channel, the organization optimistic about the future performance of Vanke. Sales pressure surge of six months reported that the four-year insurance recruit million gold operating cash flow are negative.　　Vanke and gold are 9.5 billion and 2 billion yuan respectively. For developers to expand their business, cash flow is a negative part of the normal. But for Paulie, the data is bigger than the industry. As a result of increased investment in land and construction projects, Paulie's operating cash flow was 23.35 billion yuan, reduced by 528.17% and liabilities at 37 billion yuan, so that the debt rate from the end of 2009 69%, surging to the first half of the year 76%, capital pressure.　　Similarly, the Gold group at the end of June book cash 9.4 billion yuan, the same period of 24.6 billion yuan liquidity, deducted from the unpaid outstanding accounts 10.5 billion, the current liabilities still reached 14.1 billion yuan, funding gap of 4.7 billion yuan.　　After the introduction of the state 10, from the volume fell to the price of the fall, the market reaction is gradually reflected, the real estate developers are facing a surge in sales pressure.　　Poly announced that the increase in project investment and project expansion, business scale expansion, the company's inventory from the end of last year's 60 billion soared to the reporting period of 93.7 billion yuan, growth of 56%, because of rapid expansion, sales pressure is huge. Vanke chief Tan Huajie told reporters that Vanke's attention to the 14 major cities in June turnover compared to April this year fell by as much as 60%.　　Some hot cities in the Yangtze River Delta, the 5 June deal area not only decreased by about 80% from 2009, even only half of the same period of 2008 years. Tan Huajie said that the wholesale ratio, which reflects the important supply-demand relationship in the market, has fallen to 0.9 in June this year, compared with the new saleable area in the commercial housing market, which was 1.5 per cent last year.　　Now as inventories have risen, demand has been reduced to oversupply, and developers have increased sales pressure.　　"Four quarter house prices will be reduced" from April National 10 to the middle of August, over the past four months, turnover is obvious, but the price is still hovering, did not show a significant decline, which also allows many developers have a house price will not fall too much of the lucky mentality, so most developers are in the dead carry the price. Vanke President Yu Liang that the government's regulatory determination and strength are unprecedented, developers to gamble policy is very dangerous.　　The market supply and demand relationship of hot cities is changing, with the arrival of the peak of new disk listing in the second half of the year, there will be a large correction in the price of the city with high investment ratio and fast price.　　For the second half of the real estate market trend, Kim believes that the second half of the market supply will promote the adjustment continues to deepen, the decline in trading volume will promote the adjustment of house prices, but the correction of house prices must also promote the rigid demand, so that turnover return to the level of rational stability. China Sea Real Estate President Chen Weiqiang also told reporters, the four quarter hot city house prices will be lowered, but the price range will not be too big, relative to Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen region of the rise in space is small, but the fall of space is limited, if as an investment, the future level two or three of the city's investment return