How is the dollar going? Buffett confused, Rogers look empty ABC He Zhicheng: Dollar into three steps back two steps

"The dollar is very unpredictable," Mr. Buffett said at this year's shareholder meeting, as the market generally saw the long-term performance of the dollar. I can assure you that I will buy dollars for at least 10-20 years from now. Buffett, who has always looked at the empty dollar, is no longer sure. That may have something to do with his fall in the dollar's exchange rate.　　This is a wake-up call for investors holding forex: The idea of a cautious approach to the dollar's long-term devaluation. Buffett frankly can't see the direction of exchange rate now, the judgment on the dollar, there is a one-sided situation. Some of the world's best-known big lines began last year by declaring that "the dollar will sooner or later be on a path of devaluation".　　This year's view is generally that the dollar will fall after the two quarter, the most powerful reason is-as the demand for safe haven decline, the United States, the high budget deficit to determine the basic target of the dollar poor. A recent study by Citigroup said the recent depreciation of the dollar was only a prelude to a more substantial decline. "The currency crisis is imminent and could erupt in the autumn or next autumn," Rogers said in a recent interview with overseas media. "The sharp rebound in the US dollar in the financial crisis was the result of a close position on previous short positions, which is unsustainable."　　Rogers also said it would consider increasing the assets of the yen, which is more attractive than the dollar and sterling. Of course, Rogers always sings empty dollars. Buffett has been like him before. But at this year's shareholder meeting, the 76-Year-old said bluntly, "this is very unpredictable." "The British government's deficit is 12% or higher, and Germany's deficit is 6% of GDP ... With government deficits running high in the world, the choice of such deficits may offset the impact of falling demand, but it has a significant drag on the exchange rate. I can't tell you how the exchange rate will change in this situation and I don't see the end result.　　"Last year, the dollar did not fall against the rise can look back to see the dollar in this year's trend." March 17, 2008, The dollar index hit a record low of 70.69 points, as of July 3, the lows were hovering between 71 and 74; On July 15, 2008, the dollar index began to rise strongly, starting from 72 to December 5 to 88, after which the dollar index began to rise and fall, from 88 to 77, and again to 89.　　At present, the dollar index is between 82-83 points.　　From this line of view, since the subprime crisis last year, the dollar index has not fallen, but the non-US currency has plunged overnight, so that individuals and corporate investors have suffered heavy losses. So will the dollar really depreciate? Financial Weekly reporter interviewed a series of experts, found that many foreign exchange actual combat people put forward different views. Among them, the most obvious point is the Agricultural Bank of the head of the senior economist, foreign exchange trader expert He Zhicheng.　　In his view, the dollar would take a "far reversal" path, going through 4 stages. The first stage: oversold rebound. Sign: After the EUR/USD completes its bi-head trend in 1.60,The euro fell sharply, with the dollar rebounding from a huge currency rally (except the yen). The second stage: the dollar as a safe haven currency was hyped, began to shock the market, because the financial crisis can be ended, the world economy can usher in recovery, the market will be repeatedly toss.　　Right now, it's at this stage and there's a trend towards the end. The third stage: The U.S. economy is clearly the first to enter the recovery. When it starts, it's crucial to see if the US recovers sooner than other economies. The current economic data show that the United States is not faster, but almost.　　So it depends.　　Phase IV: Scientific and technological innovation leads the dollar index to innovate high. "Fundamentally, while there are countries trying to challenge the supremacy of the dollar, many of the institutions that have been stuck in the early days are spreading the dollar crash." But while most governments want to see the dollar stabilise, the US government does not want the dollar to be too strong, but it does not want the dollar to be too weak. "For Rogers to sing the empty dollar view, He Zhicheng is quite confident," he said. " How do people judge the dollar's movements, even if the U.S. stock market rises and the dollar declines?　　"The current investment in the United States dollar should be short-term for the good deal in Shanghai branch foreign exchange analyst Shi Chun received a financial weekly reporter interview, also said the U.S. dollar will still strengthen." Schunguang also said the dollar index will also be volatile, the current direction is not clear, may be in the direction at the end of the year.　　He Zhicheng also believes that the dollar "far reversal" may not rally all the way, but will appear "into three steps back two steps" trend. Schunguang said, if is the foreign exchange investor, the dollar still is the dominant breed, the euro is the defensive variety, from 250 day line view, the dollar has the very strong support bit.　　"Investors must respect the city tide. If the hand holds the foreign exchange to want to do some financial investment investor, Schunguang proposal to short-term mainly. "At present the market 3 months of foreign exchange products are relatively rich, investors can make a certain configuration." ”