How to view the adjustment of property market under inflation expectation
Source: Internet
Author: User
How to view the property market regulation under inflation expectation? On one side is the CPI innovation High, the new RMB loan is increased year-on-year, while the price is still rising, in the key period of the property market regulation, the domestic and international environment changes, inflation and liquidity pressure appears, undoubtedly become the real estate regulation facing severe challenges. Laiyun, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, recently said that from the October real estate operation, the beginning of the end of September real estate two regulation. The verdict is clearly from the October real estate data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. Although October 70 large and medium-sized housing sales prices rose 8.6%, the chain Rose 0.2%, but the increase is smaller than September respectively 0.5 and 0.3%, at the same time, commercial housing sales area and sales are still falling, the decline is 11.2% and 7.7% respectively. However, the property market regulation faces the challenge of higher CPI and excess liquidity. Data show that in October, the CPI rose 4.4% per cent, led by 1 to October CPI Year-on-year Rise reached 3%, touched on the beginning of the 3% of the "cordon". The higher CPI will naturally increase inflationary expectations, and in this context, people are more bullish on real estate investment gains. This is clearly contrary to the real estate regulatory policy to stabilize market expectations of the original intention. Zhu Zhengyi, vice president of China's Real Estate industry association, said: "At present, because of CPI rise, the residents of the minority to buy a few, this is the price may be pushed higher at any time a potential force, is the government must pay attention to a big problem." At the same time, the liquidity pressures accumulated in recent years cannot be overlooked. According to the People's Bank of China 11th, the number of new RMB loans in October amounted to 587.7 billion yuan, although the data compared with the September 595.5 billion yuan slightly reduced, but compared with the same period last year increased by 334.7 billion yuan. The data also showed a rebound in the October increase in money supply after a month-on-month decline last month. Internationally, the Federal Reserve earlier this month announced a second round of quantitative easing to buy $600 billion trillion of U.S. Treasury bonds by the end of June 2011. The move will lead to a further devaluation of the dollar, further gains in international commodity prices, and increased pressure on China's input inflationary pressures and hot money inflows. China's real estate market is undoubtedly attractive to foreign capital that earns value from the appreciation of the renminbi and the rise in house prices. According to statistics published by the National Bureau of Statistics, the country's real estate companies to use foreign investment growth has increased, from January-August to 23.9% in the first three quarters of 26%, now 1-10 months of growth has climbed to 43.3%. According to a person who attended the second China International Real estate Investment fair in Xiamen in early September, the direct investment of international capital in China's real estate sector has been active in recent years. Data from the Ministry of Commerce also shows that foreign-owned real estate enterprises increase significantly. Only September this year, the country completed the record of foreignInvestment in real estate enterprises, the increase of 43, the new set up 31, all over the past 3 years of level. The analysis of experts, foreign capital mainly take the acquisition of construction projects or enterprises, in the market direct purchase, direct access to land for real estate development and other ways to enter the real estate market. On the other hand, the report from the China Real Estate Index Research Institute pointed out that, because the domestic real estate enterprise obtains the loan difficulty to increase, the refinancing overall tightens, the real estate enterprise starts to accelerate constructs the multiplex financing channel, the issue overseas bond, the bill and the private equity fund financing way obtains the widespread application. In fact, the foreign "hot money" may impact China's real estate market, the government departments have been vigilant. Authoritative department officials have said: "Foreign investment into China's real estate market, because of the way hidden, on the carrying performance does not seem obvious." However, through the anatomy of typical cases, there are indeed illegal credit funds into the real estate sector. "Hot money" to prevent the impact of the real estate market regulation of one of the contents. The State Council document issued January 10 this year made it clear that "the departments concerned should strengthen the monitoring of the flow of credit funds and cross-border investment and financing activities, prevent the credit funds from breaking into the real estate market and prevent ' hot money ' impacting our market". Now, in response to excess liquidity and inflationary pressures, the central bank's move to raise reserve requirements for financial institutions and raise interest rates has further released signals of tightening liquidity to the market. Some insiders said that the rate hike will change the development of the future market expectations of the company to speed up the push. 21st Century Real Estate Group marketing director Lin Lei said: "In 2007 after a lot of interest rate hikes and raise reserve ratio, the property market plummeted." Beijing ushered in a wave of price cuts. This year's situation is very similar to that of that year. According to the Beijing Trading Management network data, only early November, the city issued a total of pure commercial housing pre-sale Certificate 11, this figure has reached October full month of 70%, developers push will become more obvious. "Xinhua News agency reporter Duyu (Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, November 14)
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