International financial markets sensitive and unstable the future dollar will continue to fall

December 24, 2009 morning, "2010 World Economic and international Situation Report and 2010 World Economic Yellow Book", "International Situation Yellow Book" Press release, "2010 World Economic Situation analysis and speculation" and "global Political and Security Report (2010)". The Yellow Book of the world economy points out that in this global financial crisis, which is the fuse of the subprime mortgage crisis, the international financial market embodies the following basic characteristics: With the deepening of financial globalization, the global chain reaction between financial markets has increased markedly; this chain reaction has made global financial markets more vulnerable,　　The impact of the market overreaction is also more severe, and the international Joint rescue operation is necessary, and the speed and correctness of the action will determine the depth and breadth of the crisis affecting financial markets. Although international financial markets have been showing a bottoming out under various stimulus measures, the recovery process will be sensitive and unstable. First, because of the challenges and the differences in stimulus policies, the pace and extent of economic recovery in countries is fraught with uncertainty. As the world's leading economic engine, the U.S. economy is still a tortuous road to recovery, the past long period of overdraft spending. Secondly, how to determine the right time and the way to withdraw from various rescue policies, will be the future of the governments of the serious test. A premature exit could lead to a relapse into recession, and a late exit will not only increase government costs but also bury the hidden dangers of serious inflation. Finally, there is a growing diversity of factors affecting investor sentiment in financial markets. Differing expectations of the economic outlook, different decisions on policy measures, and different levels of attention to emerging markets determine different investment strategies and market trends. From the current situation, the financial institutions of the deleveraging process has been basically completed, as at the end of the 2nd quarter of 2009, the financial part of the leverage rate has been reduced from the early 2008 peak of 26%, back to the 3rd quarter of 1979 level, significantly lower than the 30 history of even leverage.　　Investors ' risk appetite is on the rebound, but it is difficult to return to the pre-crisis level in the short to medium term. In addition, the Yellow Book also pointed out that the future of the dollar may continue to be a long-term depreciation trend. First, there will be a gradual weakening of the dollar's risk appetite. Since March 2009, as some economic data have warmed, investors ' expectations of the economic outlook have gradually changed, and the dollar's decline in safe haven demand has led to a return to a decline. Second, there is still widespread concern about the U.S. government's exit strategy. In response to the crisis, governments have stepped up their involvement in financial markets/systems. In the four months since the collapse of Lehman, major developed economies have pledged a rescue plan of up to 40% per cent of GDP (G20 countries are evenly committed to about 28%). Moreover, the intensity of these rescues, the speed with which they are launched, and the diversity of forms of relief, are unprecedented, particularly in the US, where the government has been very aggressive and fast at market intervention. It also leaves investors with doubts about the exit strategy for these bailout plans., and has shown concern about the long-term trend of the dollar. Finally, as the major consumer country in the world after the crisis, the residents and the government's behavior decisions have changed. This is reflected in the progress of American national saving will, on the other hand, the U.S. government is also reflecting on the past to rely on high consumption and financial services to bring problems. The rate of personal savings in the United States was zero between 2005 and 2008, and has risen to around 5% since 2009. The change would mean that consumption levels in the United States will be curbed in the future, and studies suggest that the change is likely to continue for quite a long time. At the same time, the US is likely to turn to export-led, which, from the standpoint of policy support, is clearly conducive to this shift.　　As a result, the overall trend of the dollar will tend to weaken over the long term. (See "2010 World Economic Situation analysis and speculation", Social science Literature Press published in December 2009, p170~p177)