Jin billion industrial (601002. SH): High speed rail order

The company is currently the country's largest high-speed rail (high-speed rail civil war) Fastener suppliers, market share of about 20%. Fastener demand was concentrated in the construction of the middle and late stage of the high-speed rail project, so the 2010 and 2011 company orders for high-speed rail will still be quite abundant.　　In the next few years, the construction of high-speed railway has not yet been bidding for more than 7000 kilometers, in accordance with the laying standards of 6433 sets of fasteners per kilometer, the next 2 years may be tender for more than 45 million sets of high-speed fasteners. With rich experience, perfect product series and super production capacity, the advantage will be more and more outstanding in the future bidding.　　We anticipate that with the improvement of the railway localization rate, the company will continue to expand its share of tenders in the future. Even if we assume that the company will maintain a 20% market share in future tenders, about 10 million sets of high-speed rail fasteners can be ordered in the next three years. At present, each set of high-speed rail buckle tender price has stabilized in the 200~250 yuan range, the next two years is expected to be able to obtain 2 billion ~25 billion of high-speed rail fastener orders, plus the current orders in the hands of the next three years, the average annual delivery of 1.3 billion ~15 billion. If the tender price is stable and the raw material price does not rise sharply (the proportion of the disk element to the total cost is over 70%), the company's high speed fastener can maintain its gross profit margin at about 30%. Only the high-speed rail fastener business can contribute 390 million ~4.5 billion a year.　　We are cautiously optimistic about the high-speed rail fastener business. (Bu Zhongdong Securities Research Institute)