JPMorgan forecasts four-quarter hike

(Reporter Sun Chunxiang) J.P. Morgan has released a report on China's economic and macro policy outlook, predicting that the central bank will raise interest rates by 27 points in the fourth quarter of this year to rein in inflation expectations, with economic growth reaching 10% in 2010.　　According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the CPI rose 3.3% per cent year-on-year in July, exceeding the 3% cordon, but JPMorgan said the central bank would not raise interest rates until the fourth quarter, in view of slowing growth and lower input cost pressures in recent months, and expected to raise the benchmark rate by 27 basis points in the fourth quarter JPMorgan's forecasts differ from the views of several domestic institutions. GF Securities that China's economic growth will slow down in the second half of the year, the policy will remain continuous, the possibility of a smaller rate hike.　　CITIC Investment Securities and other institutions in the report also said the rate of increase in the year is slim. In response to the economic situation throughout the year, JPMorgan forecast economic growth of 10% for the year, and GF Securities analysts believe that economic growth will be around 9.5% in 2010.