July consensus forecast: July PPI rose 5.7%

August 6, "Securities Market Weekly" by the Sina Finance exclusive network released "Crystal ball china macroeconomic July consensus" shows that July PPI growth forecast average of 5.7%. Consistent expected survey data showed that the July PPI growth was expected to be up to 7.3%, with a minimum value of 5% and a median of 5.7%.　　The National Bureau of Statistics showed that PPI rose 6.4% per cent year-on-year in June, and that if the actual value were expected, this would be the second consecutive fall in PPI after the June month decline.　　Bank of Communications (601328.SH,03328.HK) Senior macro analyst Tang Jianwei in a telephone interview, said that the next six months, China's PPI will maintain a gradual decline in the situation. Tang Jianwei said: "The decline in PPI after the peak in May is not surprising, by the decline of international commodity prices, the domestic economic slowdown and the external input inflation pressure to reduce the impact of PPI will maintain a downward trend, we expect the annual PPI value will remain between 4.5% to 5%." "Western Securities macroeconomic analyst Liu Yanji in the telephone interview, said that the July PPI rise rate will be affected by domestic macro-control policy, continue to fall back."　　At home, there are no signs of a renewed rise in PPI. "Under the influence of the government's macro-control measures, China's economic growth has slowed down." In the process of slowing economic growth, the price of domestic goods has fallen, industrial enterprises have also been affected, these factors directly led to a year-on-year decline in PPI. "In the medium term, the future trend of PPI may also be affected by future U.S. economic conditions," Liu Yanji said. From the current situation, the U.S. economy is unlikely to have a two dip, which may have a moderating effect on PPI year-on-year growth.　　"China International Economic Exchange Center, Deputy Minister of information, researcher Xu Hongcai in the telephone interview, also said that by the current slowdown in China's economic growth and external economic uncertainty factors, until the end of this year, domestic PPI growth will continue to decline. Xu Hongcai said: "The current impact of PPI downward, fixed asset investment and the decline in the value of scale industry, showing a slowdown in domestic economic growth trend, has increased the downward pressure on PPI." In the long run, when the PPI picks up the upward trend, it depends on when the government will launch the relevant stimulus. "The 50 economists who participated in the survey came from major institutions including CICC, Bank of China (601988.SH,03988.HK), Bank of Communications (601328.SH,03328.HK), Guotai Securities, Everbright Securities (601788.SH), Haitong Securities ( 600837.SH), China Merchants Securities (600999.SH), Bank of America Merrill Lynch, France Paris Securities, HSBC, and Standard Chartered Bank.