July consensus forecast: Total national imports rose 30.75%

August 6, "Securities Market Weekly" by the Sina Finance exclusive network issued by "Crystal ball China's macroeconomic July consensus" shows that the July national total Import value year-on-year growth survey mean 30.75%, median value of 30%, the growth rate compared to June 34.1% has declined.　　The highest value for the survey was 48.8%, with a minimum value of 21%. In terms of import prices, the purchase price index fell from 51.3 in June to only 50.4 in the July manufacturing PMI index released by China's Logistics Purchasing Federation on August 1. According to the survey of 820 manufacturing companies, the proportion of companies that bought raw materials rose more than last month continued to fall. July fell to 16.8%, followed by a 9.1% decline in June, and a further 2.2%. In the 20 sectors, the number of trades with a price index above 50% was narrowed to 11, and the industry below 50% rose to 9.　　From the product type, the current intermediate goods and consumer goods prices continue to rise, but significantly reduced, the purchase price index is still higher than 50%, but has been significantly down, the prices of raw materials and energy and production products are falling, the price index is below 50%.　　In a written interview with reporters, Wang Yu, China's chief economist at JPMorgan, said it reflected the latest trend in international commodity prices and the pressure to reduce import prices.　　On the demand side, Lianping, chief economist at Bank of Communications (601328.SH,03328.HK), said in a written interview that domestic and foreign macroeconomic slowdown effects have gradually emerged, economic growth has dropped, import demand will be reduced, "the import decline since March will continue to remain." However, Lianping said that although domestic and foreign macro-economic decline, but the substantial two dip pressure is not significant.　　Although the domestic economic correction, while the Western development and housing construction and other investment growth in the future is expected to be stronger, the future import decline will gradually slow down. The 50 agencies involved in this survey include CICC, Bank of China (601988.SH,03988.HK), Bank of Communications (601328.SH,03328.HK), Guotai Securities, Everbright Securities (601788.SH), Haitong Securities (600837.SH), China Merchants Securities (600999.SH), Bank of America Merrill Lynch, France Paris Securities, Standard Chartered Bank and HSBC and so on.