July Credit structural pullback monetary policy will not untie

Wangfangyan 532.8 billion!　　The central bank announced July new renminbi credit is below market expectations.　　At the end of July 2010, the renminbi loan balance rose 18.4%, the increase was slightly higher than the end of last month 0.2%, the new renminbi loans 532.8 billion yuan, less than last month 70.6 billion yuan, but more than 176.9 billion yuan. August 11, a joint-stock bank executives believe that the new credit fall in July mainly because of the implementation of stringent credit control policies, especially for the government financing platform and real estate-related loans are tightly controlled.　　But the bank's Shanghai branch executives said the bank could not find a suitable credit for the project, the current loan-to-deposit ratio is only about 50%, the credit limit is not used.　　At the same time, industrial value added in July, urban fixed assets investment and total retail sales of social consumer goods all showed a slight decline, increasing the market's concern for slowing economic growth and some calls for easing monetary policy. Does monetary policy need to be relaxed? In the dispute, a bank regulator said that in the second half of the year, banks still had 2.9 trillion credit lines and sufficient credit supply, according to 3:3:2:2 's credit crunch, "such as the current strength of housing prices, which suggests that the capital chain of property developers is not strained." "Credit structural decline in July, the decline in credit growth is mainly reflected in the public short-term loans, personal real estate loans, foreign exchange loans and so on."　　Under tough credit policies, the clean-up and stagnation of government financing platforms and slowing growth of real estate loans may be the main reason for the decline.　　From the data, the month of new substantive loans fell more, excluding bills to finance the substantial new loans 576.4 billion yuan, less than last month, 139.8 billion yuan, a low.　　Structurally, July to the public medium and long-term loans increased by 327.4 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 8 billion yuan last month, the proportion of total new loans accounted for 61%, is still the main force of loan growth, the increase in public short-term loans of 52.7 billion yuan, a significant reduction of 100.1 billion yuan last month, Bill financing reduced by 43.6 billion yuan, the scale of　　At the same time, the impact of the July property market regulation further revealed that the month resident household loans increased by 172 billion yuan, less than 59 billion yuan last month, the proportion of total new loans fell further down to 32% (last month 38%). In addition, continued to be affected by banks ' foreign exchange funding, July foreign exchange loans reduced by 5.6 billion U.S. dollars, the month foreign exchange deposits increased by 1.6 billion U.S. dollars.　　As at the end of July, the ratio of foreign exchange loan to deposit was 189.5%, which was lower than last month, but the pressure of bank foreign exchange liquidity management remained large. "The policy is getting tighter compared to the June.　　"A City firm Shanghai Branch said, is currently doing the government financing platform project Clean-up work, the related credit is almost stagnant, and real estate projects also began to control, the introduction of a list system, approval process lengthened, the two former pull credit growth" big "weak, natural credit delivery slowed. "Some of the scale of the cooperation to go out with the bank letter is now suspended, which has also put pressure on us," he said. "AnotherJoint-Stock Bank Shanghai branch said. Some banks, on the other, feel the "easing" of credit lines. Credit people at a big bank said: "Under the current regulatory policy, few industries are in line with the requirements, so credit is hard to put in." "However, a number of bank credit people reflect that the credit demand of enterprises has not shrunk significantly."　　In fact, the revival of private investment demand may be the reason why there is no significant decline in support for credit. The statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that, under the policy-driven, private investment has shown signs of starting to increase by more than fixed asset investment for 5 consecutive months. 1-July, the growth rate of private investment was 31.9%, which was 7% higher than that of urban fixed assets investment.　　As of July, private investment accounted for 52% of urban fixed-asset investment, up 2.7% from a year earlier.　　The macroeconomic data, published by the National Bureau of Monetary Policy on the same day, showed a slowdown in economic growth and speculation that the market was loosening its macro-control policy. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in July, the value of the above-scale industrial growth increased by 13.4%, compared with June fell 0.3%; 1 to July, urban fixed assets investment 11.9866 trillion yuan, growth of 24.9%,　　than the first half fell 0.6%, July, the total retail sales of consumer goods 1.2253 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.9%, compared to the June decline of 0.4%. Some securities analysts believe this suggests a weakening in the underlying dynamics of economic growth.　　The July M1, M2 growth "pour scissors" further narrowed, also shows that the economic activity is gradually decreasing. The Bank of China Market Traders Association recently released the 2010 two quarterly Chinese bond market analysis, said that with the economic slowdown, the second half of "growth" will become the primary focus of macroeconomic control, the central bank in the three quarter is expected to adhere to the principle of moderately loose monetary policy, flexible open market operations,　　At the same time, it is possible to cut the reserve ratio.　　However, more people tend to have a stable judgment on policy.　　A bank regulator believes the current supply of credit should be plentiful, and that the clean-up of credit for financing platforms is a long-term project that does not have a huge impact on the size of credit.　　And he thinks, "adjustment of the structure of the active adjustment policy did not appear loose, the Ministry of Industry issued various industries to eliminate the specific indicators of backward production capacity, the CBRC's strict attitude to the third set of mortgages and the Ministry of Land released 1457 of the list of idle land, because of concern about the downward economic growth and deregulation may be wishful thinking "Last year's three big adjustments in monetary policy were not conducive to economic growth, and policies should be consistent rather than dramatic."　　"he said. Another banker said that, although the economy slowed, but two dip is unlikely, the annual GDP growth can be maintained at more than 8%.　　In a situation where total demand is weak, the increase in the amount of money is likely to be a rise in prices.There is a lot of support for this view.　　The Financial Research Center believes that the need to raise interest rates and reserve ratios is small, given the slowdown in economic growth, the steady movement of money and credit and the continued low interest rates of central banks in Europe and the US. Wanguo Chief macro analyst Li Huiyong that the July economic situation in general suggests that the risk of a hard landing is small, and that even though inflation is on the upside, there is little likelihood that policies will be tightened and prematurely relaxed.