July trade surplus hit 18-month high

Source: Internet
Author: User
Keywords month the trade surplus
China's trade surplus reached $28.7 billion trillion in July, far exceeding analysts ' forecasts, according to the latest figures released yesterday by Rough, the newspaper's General Customs service. This data is also the highest point in 18 months.  Many analysts fear that the expansion of the trade surplus will continue to increase the pressure on the renminbi to appreciate.  According to the General administration of Customs data, export growth in July has slowed from June year-on-year (over a year earlier) to a 43.9% per cent slowdown to a year-on-year growth of 38.1%, the decline is obvious. Analysts believe that this is mainly due to floods, higher base last year, the increase in export tax rebates and other factors.  In fact, China's exports in July were $145.52 billion trillion, still high. Compared with exports, the rate of decline in import growth in July was significantly higher than expected.  Data showed that imports amounted to $116.79 billion trillion in July, with import growth falling from 34.1% per cent to 22.7%.  Analysts said the import situation could partly reflect domestic economic production, so a sharp drop in imports may reflect a slowdown in domestic growth.  But what is more noteworthy is that, despite the plunge in imports, the resulting trade surplus reached a 18-month high, leaving some analysts worried that the pressure on the renminbi to appreciate will still increase.  Earlier this year, China used a series of much smaller monthly surpluses – and even a trade deficit in March – as evidence that the Chinese economy is rebalancing and reducing its reliance on exports.  However, the slowdown in import growth is likely to reflect the rapid cooling of the domestic economy, which will make Chinese policymakers less willing to allow the renminbi to appreciate rapidly. Barclays Capital said yesterday that the renminbi's nominal effective exchange rate had depreciated by about 3.5% since the date of the June exchange rate reform, reflecting domestic concerns about exports.
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