Lijiang Tourism Harvest next year in sight of the ropeway performance both exerting force

"In the absence of a ropeway, if you want to see" impression of Lijiang, most people will ride up from the halfway point of the Yulongxue Shan.　　"One investor who has long been concerned about Lijiang tourism (002033, close to 32.17 yuan) said. Now, after half a year of waiting, tourists have a better way than horseback riding. December 1, Yulongxue Shan Tourism Ropeway (hereinafter referred to as large ropeway) began operation. Upon completion of the renovation, its capacity will rise twice times to 1200 people/hour.　　And compared to the convenience of tourists, investors are more concerned about the problem is: after the operation of the Ropeway, will give Lijiang tourism to bring how much imagination space? Reception volume or super Historical peak Lijiang Tourism November 26, said that the current technical renovation project and emergency rescue equipment and infrastructure renovation project has been completed. The Ropeway began operation on December 1. After the transformation of a single line of the loop off the hook 8 people hanging van Ropeway, equipment selection of Italy Leitner Company's complete sets of advanced technology.　　After the completion of the renovation, Ropeway capacity from the original 420 people per hour to 1200 people per hour. In fact, the great ropeway from April 1 this year, the technical transformation of the outage, but also let Lijiang tourism deeply experienced the "pain." In the first half, the company's hotel business generated losses, net profit fell 71% year-on-year. Net profits plummeted 62% per cent in the first 9 months of this year.　　The company expects that the tramway shutdown will reduce the 2010 net profit by 42.5 million yuan, the annual net profit is expected to fall 90%~100%. The big ropeway stops to lose how many passenger traffic, perhaps can from the following this group of data glimpse: 2009 First half, the large ropeway receives the visitor number to be 280,200, the whole year is 668,400 people.　　In the first half of this year, the large Ropeway received only 115,900 visitors, down 59% year-on-year. In this regard, a AA class brokerage tourism researcher to the "daily economic news" that the main impact of the large ropeway capacity increase is the bulk of the passenger flow, especially before the transformation when many customers need in the busy season weekend waiting for more than 2-3 hours, the final may abandon the ropeway. At the same time, because the proportion of the team visitors to the ropeway is probably in the 50%~60%, under normal circumstances because they are more purposeful, the ropeway recovery for its traffic growth elasticity is not large.　　Overall, after the renovation is expected to maintain 8%~10% annual growth of the problem is not big. "The big Ropeway runs approximately 6-8 hours a day, after the transformation theoretically can receive the visitor 4700~6200 the number of times each day," the researcher thinks, "because most of the time this year the ropeway is in the outage state, its resumed operation will return to at least 10% normal growth rate." At present, it is expected that the actual volume of Ropeway next year is expected to reach about 800,000. "Public disclosure of information, the great Ropeway in 2007 set a record maximum volume of 780,000 people." From 2004 to 2009, the annual average reception volume was 640,000, while that of the same period was 36%. "Daily economic news" reporter statistics found that from 2004 to 2007, the composite growth rate of the large Ropeway reception volume was 15%. From 2008 to 2009, the reception volume declined 4%.　　According to the National Gold Securities Forecast, the 2011 ropeway will actually receive 791,000 visitors, corresponding to the income of 100 million yuan, an increase of 267%. "Impression Lijiang" or increase the number of September 30, Lijiang Tourism announced reorganization plan, intended to be no less than 21.69 yuan/share price, directional additional acquisition impression Tourism 51% Equity. As we all know, "Impression Lijiang" ticket sales growth benefited from the number of performances or a single audience increase.　　In the case of total audience seats unchanged, attendance changes will directly affect the number of individual audience. A northern brokerage industry researcher calculate such a sum: Suppose this year, the next two years large Ropeway reception volume is 240,000 people and 780,000 people, divided down the number of the following day reception will be more than this year 1479~2137. As the first half of this year, "Impression Lijiang," a single audience of 1916 people, which means that if the new passenger flow all consider to see the performance, "Impression Lijiang" may increase the average number of daily performances of nearly 1.　　In fact, this does not take into account the growth rate of tourists not taking the ropeway. This week, the daily economic news reporter called "Impression Lijiang" as a visitor, and a staff member surnamed Liu said that at present, "impression Lijiang" to perform 2 games a day, the latest one is 2 o'clock in the afternoon. Whether the future company will increase the number of performances depends on the reservation. If you have more reservations, you will naturally consider increasing them. It is not likely to increase the number of performances since the off-season. But with the advent of the peak season, the next spring may increase to 3 games.　　In general, 7 August has reached a maximum of 4 games a day. Subsequently, the reporter dialed Lijiang tourism securities Business Representative Chen Yun's telephone. He pointed out that some team visitors usually go up early to watch the show, because there are not too many residential services on the mountain, tourists tend to go down before 5 o'clock in the afternoon.　　From this point of view, "impression Lijiang" at present will not easily adjust the performance of the show. Interestingly, a person in Cyts told reporters that under normal circumstances, after October, Lijiang slowly entered the off-season tourism. But the people who go to Lijiang are still more than in previous years, especially in some time period, "impression Lijiang" is still in full market state.　　The reason for this is that, on the one hand, the off-season will come late this year, on the other hand, it may be influenced by the concentration of tourists. In this respect, "impression Lijiang," Liu surname staff responded that the recent performance reception is not bad, this year's full attendance to more than 80% have a certain degree of difficulty, but the probability between 70%~80% is still relatively large.　　In addition, this year "Impression Lijiang" ticket sales are expected to reach more than 1 million. It is worth mentioning that Citic Securities has issued a study reported that the 2010 "impression Lijiang" attendance of 72%, the average number of times a day 1.9, the national Gold Securities that the 2010 attendance is 74%, the average number of 2.2 times a day. For 2011, Citic Securities said that the average number of times per day, attendance will rise to 1.92 respectively and80%.　　The short-term increase in the ropeway ticket probability is not very recent, after the transformation of the big ropeway to increase fares, become investors eyes a more realistic problem. As early as November, China Merchants Securities pointed out that the large ropeway round-trip ticket price of 160 yuan has been maintained for nearly 8 years, and after the renovation, Ropeway comfort greatly increased the possibility of higher prices.　　If the ropeway increases 25% to 200 yuan, and the number of visitors to 1.1 million, the whole year will increase net profit of 24.5 million yuan, that is, thickening EPS0.19 yuan.　　In the first 9 months of this year, the EPS of Lijiang tourism is only 0.13 yuan, which is equivalent to 68% of the forecast EPS. In this respect, Chen Yun explained that, because the price increase needs to be reported to the local government, open hearings and a series of procedures can be implemented, and the company has not yet submitted for approval, so the short-term price increase is unlikely.　　It is not clear whether to raise the price next year. "Daily economic news," a rough calculation of the reporter found that, regardless of the price of the ropeway price factors, the assumption of 2011 years "impression Lijiang" attendance is 80%, the average number of 2.5 times a day. Its ticket sales will reach 2.1 million, according to the effective per capita price of 133 yuan, corresponding ticket income of 280 million yuan. Because Lijiang tourism only holds "impression Lijiang" 51% Equity, corresponding net profit is 59.69 million yuan. In addition, in view of the next year three large ropeway can be combined to bring 190 million yuan income, the equivalent net profit of 66.3 million yuan. Plus hotels and other business performance and less than a minority shareholder profit and loss 55.7 million yuan, the next year is expected to Lijiang tourism earnings will reach about 1 yuan per share.