Liu Yuhui: Next year's macroeconomic goals are expected to be real bubbles

BEIJING, December 22 (China Economic Network)--Liu Yuhui published a blog post titled "Bursting Bubbles and economic slowdown I'm afraid China has to pay." The article hopes that the country will use sound monetary policy and positive fiscal policy, through development and reform to solve a variety of thorny issues, such as structural imbalances, bubbles and inflation.　　On the one hand began to revise the past very broad monetary conditions, return to the sound, but on the other hand, but also to prevent the rigid collapse of bubbles, the choice is "to do real bubbles" thinking, hoping to achieve inflation and a soft landing bubble.　　The article points out that China's economic policy in the 2011 is "positive and prudent and flexible", this is about dealing with the "growth, restructuring, inflation control" of the three macro-objectives of the relationship between the policy principles, can be interpreted as macro-level decision-making is not likely to take the overall tightening of regulation to deal with the current increasingly serious asset bubbles and inflation.　　The article also points out that because the logic of China's inflation is currency-asset-price, so the current price rise must be a process of accumulation of money, in the past 8 years, China's currency volume has risen 4 times times, high-speed industrialization has driven the nominal economy has risen only twice times, overvalued land and real estate like a sponge sucking the overflow of the amount of money. The article analyses that the speed of China's economy has always depended on investment and heavy chemical industry, which is not related to employment. Speed down, the liquidity tide receded, China's commodity prices will fall sharply, but increase the current competitiveness of the manufacturing sector. They live better, not worse, and have more opportunities to hire more people than to be forced by machines to replace labor or transfer factories. The resilience of the Chinese economy to the manufacturing sector is strong in the world's major economies, and the damage is in fact the asset sectors.　　These departments are supposed to pay for China's economic restructuring. The article thinks that the positive financial policy becomes the important point of the. By expanding supply in the direction of people's livelihood, if we vigorously promote public housing construction plan, vigorously promote the health care, education, endowment and other people's livelihood, to eliminate the family insecurity, enhance their actual capacity to pay and income, substantial expansion of the ability to consume; through tax cuts and reductions (in particular the social security costs of enterprises), Promote the development of private and private economies, expand employment, and increase their ability to endure inflation by distributing subsistence subsidies to low-and middle-income earners. However, the conflict between multiple goals often undermines the realization of the ideal macro-objective.