"Lookout": Inflationary pressure forcible

Chart: April Chinese consumer prices rose 2.8% year-on-year Xinhua News agency China's economy is changing from the late recovery to normal growth. The current price control focus, should be controlled by the overall level of price increase, adjust to improve the low-income class to the price rise of the ability to bear up from this year's macroeconomic data, the overall price level although there has been a certain rise, but the overall rise is relatively moderate.　　In China's rapid economic recovery, the early price base is low, the weather and climate conditions are abnormal adverse circumstances, the basic normal and reasonable. At present, China is the fastest-growing country after the international financial crisis. Moreover, the high economic growth is based on the expansion of domestic demand, and both the demand and consumption demand of both countries have a higher growth, so it has a certain pulling effect on the price of consumer and means of production. At the same time, last year, China's price operation is basically down.　　In the lower price base conditions, accompanied by a strong rebound in the economy, the price of the recovery of the rise is normal and reasonable. Of course, at the beginning of this year, the abnormal cold weather in our country has caused the lean of vegetable supply and the production of vegetables, which leads to the increase of vegetable prices.　　As the weather turns warmer, food prices, represented by fresh vegetables and fresh fruits, will fall off the chain, thus curbing the rise in the overall price level. Therefore, the current trend of accelerated price increases in the short term may be due to the impact of special factors will continue to last 2-3 months, but did not see long-term sustainability, short-term no serious inflation.　　Overall, this year's overall price level will show a moderate rise, the annual price increase is expected to control within 3%.　　CPI moderate to control the domestic economy in the late recovery, is turning to normal economic growth posture, the domestic rapid demand growth and the gradual recovery of external demand, will promote a modest rebound in prices. First, investment growth is largely limited to government-led investment growth, and private investment is still not being followed up normally. Real Estate Investment 1 ~ April, although the rapid growth of 36.2%, but the current real estate market policy environment will seriously limit the further growth of real estate investment. Real estate investment at the end of this year is facing a significant pullback.　　This shows that the current high investment growth, the persistence of uncertainty. Second, the growth of residents ' consumption has benefited to a great extent from the stimulus of government consumption policy.　　This stimulus only for some industries, such as automobiles, home appliances, tourism accommodation and catering sales, and so on, rather than in the root of the increase in residents ' income, reduce residents ' taxes and so on to increase the purchasing power of residents to stimulate consumption, and therefore has limitations, lack of sustainability.　　Although the 2010 National economic growth rate will reach about 9.5%, but with China's current potential economic growth capacity is basically equal to, will not exceed the resources carrying capacity, will not trigger a substantial increase in the overall price level. The various price reform and the price contradictory carding will have certain influence to the price general level rise, but controllable. At present, many areas have raised the residents 'Water, gas and heating prices, some cities have increased taxi fares, attractions ticket prices. It is expected that later this year more local governments will introduce price adjustment measures, coupled with the already introduced oil price reform measures and the possibility of the national gas and electricity price increase measures, will have a certain impact on the further rebound in prices. But the price reform and the local public service price contradiction carding and so on the influence of price adjustment measures on the general level of prices, the state can be controlled to a certain extent.　　The central government will carefully and effectively control the intensity, tempo and reality of the price adjustment according to the change of the pricing situation. The price of major raw materials in the international market rose obviously, but the downward conduction was limited. Overall, the current rise in international market commodity prices is also a recovery, most of the product prices are still lower than pre-crisis levels, and the current rise in commodity prices have a very limited conduction impact. From the international market price in recent years, the impact of domestic prices on China's upstream production industry prices, but the impact on the downstream consumer prices is very small.　　This is mainly because of China's consumer prices and means of production prices are not smooth, even if the international market commodity prices will lead to higher domestic production prices, not necessarily led to rising consumer prices. The impact of abnormal weather changes on the prices of agricultural products is the most worthy of sustained attention. This year, the production of vegetables, fruits and summer in China has become a foregone conclusion. From the development of this year, the weather environment uncertainty is very large, early drought, low-temperature weather although there are some relief, but the impact is still, especially in the north of the spring delay, is bound to autumn production buried hidden dangers. The north, especially Heilongjiang Province, is the most important food producing area in China, and it is particularly susceptible to climate.　　If the continuous low temperature leads to the shortage of the northern grain growth period, will affect the grain production, which will have a significant impact on the grain prices this year, and produce a series of price chain reaction, which will affect the overall price level of significant changes. The overall pattern of the oversupply of many industrial consumer goods has not changed radically, which will restrain the excessive rise of the overall price level to some extent. At present, China's industrial consumer goods supply pattern has not changed, traffic and communications, household appliances, textile and apparel, general consumer goods and other industries are showing obvious oversupply of the state, this pattern will inhibit the rise in industrial consumer prices.　　At the same time, with the obvious rise of trade protectionism and the pressure of the Western countries to appreciate the RMB, the export growth is facing great difficulties and it is difficult to return to the 2008 export scale. Therefore, many of the original export production capacity to face the international market will be diverted to domestic market production, thereby exacerbating the surplus of domestic industrial consumer goods supply and curbing the rise of industrial consumer prices. At the same time, some means of production industry also appeared oversupply phenomenon: steel, cement, glass, automobile and other industries have become overcapacity industries, these upstream industry overcapacity will not only inhibit the price of these industries themselves, the rise in prices,Will also curb the rise in the price of downstream consumer goods. Without changing the growth of residents ' income and the polarization of residents ' income, the consumption price of residents does not have a substantial increase in market demand base. 1997-2008 years, China's national income distribution has been tilted to enterprises and government, corporate profits growth rate in 30%~40%, the government's revenue growth rate in 20%~30%, and residents ' income growth rate of less than 10%,　　The national economy has long been in a pattern of slower growth in consumer demand than supply growth.　　As a result, consumer prices in most years of the year in the depressed state, CPI rose the highest in about 5%, and mainly because food, pork and other food supplies have caused serious problems, is not the total supply and aggregate demand between the problem. With the slow growth of residents ' income, the polarization of income is becoming more and more serious, and the income growth of middle and low income residents is much slower than that of high-income earners, while the absolute income of some low-income groups and poor groups is even decreasing. The share of national income is rapidly increasing according to the proportion of capital allocated, the more assets the more wealth the more income growth faster.　　This has led to a growing marginal propensity to consume less and less consumption, which has further inhibited the rise in the overall level of consumer prices. The adjustment of the flexibility of the national macroeconomic policy, especially the high level of the overall price rise, will strengthen the control of price increase at any time. Since this year, the national macro-control has undergone great changes, especially in the management of inflation expectations, restructuring of the economic structure significantly increased. The first is to strengthen the control of credit scale and credit investment, three times raise the reserve ratio of commercial banks, and increase the return of money, effectively control the liquidity; Secondly, the regulation of the real estate market has been intensified, and a series of strong measures to control the rapid rise in housing prices, to avoid real estate asset bubbles continue to expand The third is to take stringent measures to control the growth and integration of production capacity in surplus industries such as steel, cement, glass, Ferroalloy, polysilicon, electrolytic aluminum, and to control the growth of ineffective demand and ineffective supply.　　The implementation of these policy measures will effectively control the price of the overall level of excessive rise. Expectations of higher prices have improved.　　With the recent fall in real estate prices and the sharp decline in the stock market, many investors quilt, the social wealth effect of a large decline, but also changed the society's expectations of price increases and economic growth expectations, which will also be to some extent curb the price of the overall level of the increase. The five major concerns of future prices focus on structural changes in prices. The overall price level of 2010 will not vary greatly, but individual commodity prices may change significantly, and should be wary of this. Focus on the changes in commodity prices of monopolistic industries, food, meat, eggs, aquatic products and other necessities of life prices change, coal, oil, non-ferrous metals and other resource-type commodity prices change, and excessive reliance on external commodity price changes. In the macro-control policy, but also to the price of the knotThe characteristics of the structure change are regulated in a differentiated way.　　The structural rise in prices with the overall tightening of the method of regulation is not effective, side effects, in the current recovery after the economic operating environment to be cautious. Pay attention to the change of production price. The change of CPI in China is relatively weaker relative to the change of GDP, but the change of capital production price is correlated with the change of GDP. If the economy shows more than 10% growth this year, the price of capital goods will rise by a large margin.　　The increase in the price of capital goods has an important impact on increasing the pressure on CPI, especially on the negative effects of smooth economic operation. We should adhere to the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policy. The drastic change of economic policy is unfavorable to the stable operation of the economy, but also unfavorable to the stable operation of the price, at present the sharp fluctuation of the stock asset price and the commodity price is the strong reaction of the market to the policy change, and it may also affect the drastic changes of the real estate price and the big fluctuation　　The stability and continuity of economic policies should therefore be maintained. The regulation of real estate prices should minimize the negative impact on economic operation. The real estate price problem, only uses the economic policy regulation, solves the problem, excessively uses the strict macroeconomic control policy to the real estate price regulation function is very limited, but to the economic operation harm will be very big, especially to has just recovered, is moving toward the normal operation macro-economy to blow is bigger.　　Therefore, it is more effective to combine economic policy with administrative means, and to control the combination of central government and local government, mainly by administrative means, supplemented by economic means, and by the control of local government, supplemented by central governmental regulation. The focus of current price regulation should be from controlling the overall level of price increase to improving the affordability of low-income groups. To effectively increase the money income of the low-income residents. It is suggested to further improve the starting point of personal income tax, establish the mechanism of ordinary wage income and the normal growth of enterprise performance, strengthen the function of labor protection law in safeguarding ordinary interests, accelerate the construction of social security system, improve the function of social security system, and further improve the basic pension of enterprise retirees,　　Unemployment insurance and industrial injury insurance standard, improve the security level of urban and rural subsistence and countryside bao, strengthen the adjustment function of tax lever to the high income stratum, implement the strict and effective individual progressive taxation system, especially strengthen the scientific supervision and levy on the tax and fee of the private enterprise and the high income of the joint stock enterprise Efforts to increase food production. Food prices are the basis of the overall price level. Grain yield is stable, grain price is stable, grain price is stable, then the overall price level will basically maintain stable. At the same time, we should strengthen the monitoring and early warning of food prices, timely detection of signs and tendencies, timely take effective measures to stabilize the food market supply and demand and market prices, to prevent a substantial increase in food prices. /"Lookout" Newsweek Lianzhong