Maotai broken "naked" market value of 60 billion evaporation this year

Guizhou Maotai (market, interrogation) is in the two-tier market encounter the most difficult moment, following the six-month report came to a halt, yesterday in the absence of obvious news factors, but the case was abandoned. Financial profit, current savings rate 1000% Panama Expo fame glory, difficult to replicate Chishui unique brewing environment, production for many years in short supply so that the market fight constantly, the ex-factory prices for many years significantly lower than the market price of the deep moat, These put Maotai (600519) ten years to the increase of 28 times times the positive, as if disappeared overnight. Since September, Maotai has been listed the most embarrassing net profit growth performance for many years, in more than 15 billion transactions in the hands of the day, will be Maotai's share price knocked back 3 years ago-141.3 yuan, the stock price straight break some dead bulls support "bare Ben Price" 144 yuan, the market value also from the beginning of the year 214.8 billion yuan shrunk to 146.7 billion yuan,　　68.1 billion yuan market value evaporation, the shrinkage rate is over 30%. Yesterday, the plate showed that Maotai shares low drive low, the share price fell all the way. From the big deal, early 9:35 a 1068 hand selling price is still 147.91 yuan, the afternoon plate 13:15, a 1254 hand selling orders to the price to 143 yuan, the close, the stock price has only 141.30 yuan, the day decreases 5.58%,　　The second-biggest-day decline in the year following the fall in the interim report was the same as that of January 28 this year. Bulls bet not to "concede" to the death of a crowd of Maotai, each fall in the stock price fall can constitute a reason for their celebration. Shangganlin, who claims to have bought and held in early 2003, said on Weibo yesterday: "The American bombing on the battlefield, but can not destroy the morale of our army, even into the Cardong to persist to the victory of that day!" "I saw 140 today," he said in a reply to the microblog. I can also take two cartons of wine. "It's easy to get a drink, but I'm afraid it needs to be cashed." Beijing does not pole Thai Investment Advisory Center Executive Partner, CEO (CEO) Dong Baojin, Yang Yan had placed a wager, said if Maotai market value below 150 billion yuan will run naked. September 2012, Yang Yan said, "Maotai this price is the last time in 10 years, the next few years will be difficult to raise prices, with this price increase, Maotai's own investment value became clear, the share price would gradually return to 10 times multiples."　　"And Dong Baojin is fierce response, don't say 100 billion yuan, if can below 150 billion yuan, he will run naked for 30 minutes and live live." According to the market value of 146.7 billion yuan yesterday, Dong Baojin issued a statement that unilaterally accept not excluding dividends of the bare Ben Price of 144 yuan, and will be in the Mid-Autumn Festival naked and then released video to the network. But he believes that maotai over a year to inventory, has completed the three public needs of the exit, become a pure mass consumer goods company, Maotai's intrinsic value promotion from its replacement of history, spirit, culture and respect for others, and this kind of historical culture and respect with the economic development,　Rising income and intrinsic value automatically increase, this is the essence of the continuous growth of Maotai.　Maotai dream to extinguish the Chinese dream? It is worth pondering that the market value of Maotai, which represents the traditional culture and the three public consumption, has shrunk sharply at the same time, the shares of Tencent, a symbol of emerging technology, have been highly innovative, with a market capitalisation of HK $770 billion, totaling hundreds of billions of dollars, and become China's first internet company to "The fall of Maotai in Guizhou, the rise of Tencent Holdings, this is the Chinese dream," said a private-equity official who was known to reporters. "To understand why bears are so pessimistic, he argues, we must understand the expansion cycle of liquor in the last 10 years." 2000 years or so, liquor in the trough, a large number of wineries closed down, and experienced depression, struggle, recovery and rise, the 2011 liquor stood to the peak of expansion, the year 10.251 million liters of production than three years ago increased 300多万千, an increase of 50%; Sales 374.6 billion yuan,　　Compared with the 185.8 billion yuan in 2009, more than one time, after such rapid expansion and madness, the market in the past two years had to face the grief of rapid expansion, this is only a new cycle of reincarnation. He said that as a model of Chinese high-end liquor, Maotai also no exception, these 10 years experienced a rapid expansion of the volume of Zisheng: Output from 2003 11794 tons, expansion to the end of 2012 24299 tons, growth of more than 1 time times more than, and 53° flying Maotai ex-factory price from 2003 268 yuan,　　Increased to 2012 of 819 yuan, the price of 3 times times; at the end of 2011, The Accidental Incident liquor "plasticizing Agent", and then to severely rectify the three public and military consumption, can not cover up the industry expansion even facing overcapacity adjustment after the inevitable. In fact, the Mid-Autumn Festival, the National Day is approaching, before every festival will rise Maotai and did not mention the essence of God.　　53° Flying Maotai Market price is only about 1300 yuan, and group buying activities also "buy one get One", the network even under the thousands of yuan under the low price, and 2012 flying Maotai 1900 yuan in the market price difference is very far. It is understood that, because of "three public consumption" huge reduction, dealer inventory pressure to increase, forced to reduce the price means to recover funds as soon as possible, and the main consumer pinned on the middle class.　　On the other hand, Maotai liquor factory at the end of June let loose the original many dealers want to get the distribution rights, according to 999 Yuan plan to supply new dealers, hope to use new amount to maintain channels and shipments.　　Not seen in the second quarter of large institutions to lighten the view that the reporter learned that some agencies think yesterday the shares of the stock's plunge is still a semi-annual report over the expectations of a digest. Guo Hai Securities (market, interrogation) analyst Tri Yu in an interview, said, "The interim results so ugly, the market will inevitably have maotai into negative growth concerns." He said that the first few years, including Maotai liquor volume price Zisheng, rapid rise, is a price to the top warning. It is not surprising that stock prices have been reflected in a sharp decline in market sentiment as a response to the increase in Maotai net profits. From its actual investigation, some sell Maotai liquor dealers even go to Chengde Lulu (market, interrogation), Southern food (lineLove, interrogation) and other soft drinks press conference, is to try to reduce the risk of a single liquor consignment. Financial profit, current savings rate 1000% but, he believes that although short-term performance is difficult to predict, but recently Maotai 3000 tons of products to supply new distributors, the second half of the liquor to enter the traditional consumption season, the company's performance improvement constitutes a support. "Now is a reasonable price, maotai in liquor and the leading position of the moat and other positive factors unchanged, but the profit space may have slipped, and now still need to wait for the third quarterly data to verify."　　"Tri Yu said. From the fund positions of the main institutions, the two quarter did not appear a sharp withdrawal. In addition to Guangdong Poly Fung (270005) than the first quarter to lighten 1.2 million shares, holding 8.8 million shares of the third largest circulation of shareholders outside, Bo time value growth (050001) holding 5.06 million shares did not move, QFII is also quite calm, Singapore's Temasek-owned fund and UBS Group also held 6.31 million shares and 4.72 million stocks respectively. Another passive index fund easy to reach 50 index (110003) also slightly more than 650,000 shares, holding 5.97 million shares.