Market slowly warming up property nine worth looking forward to

Trading volume rebounded slightly "State 10" after the introduction of the property market has undergone 4 months of adjustment, the market partly digested the early stage of the control of panic. Most of the first-tier city week turnover in the policy issued within one months fell by more than 50%, week deal data hit 2008 low. And from the transaction prices, since the regulation of the one or two-line city average price to maintain the original level. The price shocks during this period were caused by the transaction structure.　　In the first-tier cities, Guangzhou trading volume declined the most obvious, mainly because Guangzhou in 2009 the level of house prices in the lowest in the first-tier cities, consumer purchasing power by high prices hit the smallest. The second-tier cities in the Midwest showed relatively stable turnover and limited turnover.　　But relatively developed second-tier cities, the turnover still declined significantly. At present, whether it is a first-tier city, or second-tier cities, turnover trend is very obvious. In particular, nearly four weeks, most of the one or two-line city turnover has been basically restored to 70% of the experience volume level.　　It should be noted that the August turnover was achieved under the influence of extreme weather, which also shows that the market demand is very strong. Developers push the offer is not strong we found that the city developers on the decision to push the case is also relatively cautious. Due to the future trend of the real estate market is unclear, causing developers to push the action is rather hesitant.　　From the key cities of the sale of stock and sales area changes, although the sales situation is not optimistic, but the growth of the relatively slow sale of stock, indicating that developers push the offer is not strong. At present, the developer is still in the pricing dilemma. As a result, most developers take a disguised way to reduce prices, to send the area, to the decoration, to send the garage, the cost of property and other means to disguise the price. According to observation, the current push plate project to 2007 years and 2008 of land mainly, the project cost is far lower than the current price, with the ability to reduce prices.　　Developers ' willingness to reduce prices is not the main reason for a significant rebound in transactions. September deal still has room for improvement September and October is the real estate industry, the traditional sales season, but also developers in the regulatory policy after the promulgation of the second sales season. Due to the May and June distance policy, developers missed a busy season sales.　　To achieve most of the annual sales target, developers must be in September and October sales season to increase the strength of the push. In the survey we learned that there are developers said will be in the sales season to increase sales intensity. Through the August market sales tracking, although sales did not return to normal levels, but the partial area of the small number of real estate began to appear hot. We found that these projects to achieve a hot sale, relying on not only the price reduction and other means of sales, more based on the characteristics of the project itself. such as Longhu Chongqing Project, Citic Tianjin Project, the Shenyang project in the sea, all embody the characteristics of promoting sales. We believe that if there is no further regulation of policy, September Real estate turnover will have a sharp rebound in value. (Zhang Huadong Dr Yeung Sum Securities Research Institute)