Ministry of Commerce experts say exports will have a soft landing

September Import and export growth 24.7%, the trade surplus narrowed new Express reporter Zhang Yi yesterday, the General administration of customs released the September import and export data show that September China's import and export value of 273.1 billion U.S. dollars, growth of 24.7%, another record high, the trade surplus of 16.88 billion U.S. dollars, the chain reduction of 15.7%. The RMB appreciation factor is high in the present, and every 108th session of the Canton Fair is about to convene, the exchange rate becomes the biggest problem in front of the export enterprises. Analysts believe that despite the narrowing of the September trade surplus, the absolute value of the high remains did not improve the pressure on the renminbi to appreciate.　　Experts advise exporters to be prepared to deal with large fluctuations in the exchange rate market. Data in line with regulatory expectations customs said yesterday that the current foreign trade trend has been significantly better than the level before the financial crisis.　　Commerce Minister Chen Deming said in September that foreign trade policy is still to stabilize exports and increase imports. Ho Jianguo, dean of the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Institute of Commerce, said that from the first 9 months of data, the situation of foreign trade development is more ideal, the trend tends to be stable, although there is a monthly retreat, but it is a normal phenomenon. Now the growth of foreign trade is better than expected, and the change and contraction of external market is slightly lighter than imagined. While there are contradictions in the recovery of demand in developed countries, developing countries and emerging markets are more stable. From the internal control point of view, foreign trade data also conform to regulatory expectations.　　China's exports will achieve a "soft landing" for the next six months. "The three quarter is a stabilisation process, the four-quarter appreciation of the renminbi and other issues under the influence of export growth there is a continued decline in the process." I think it will keep about 25% of the growth of foreign trade throughout the year.　　Ho Jianguo so judged. The pressure on the renminbi to appreciate even though the September trade surplus fell to near 5-month lows, analysts believe the value remains high and will exacerbate the recent pressure on the renminbi.　　Yesterday, the renminbi against the U.S. dollar exchange rate of 6.6693, and then new highs since the foreign exchange.　　Wang June, a researcher at the China Center for International Economic exchange, said the surplus in September was still large and would exacerbate pressure on the renminbi, which would be a reason to accuse China no matter how China's foreign trade improves. However, Ho Jianguo said to reporters, "This wave of appreciation of the renminbi has exceeded 3%, I think the next appreciation of the space is not as big as imagined." "Ho Jianguo analysis, although the external appreciation of the renminbi exchange rate of greater pressure, but the appreciation of the renminbi is still the same." The key to RMB appreciation and the adjustment of exchange rate policy should also take into account the economic operation and affordability.　　At present, the pressure of export enterprises is rising further, the possibility that the renminbi will continue to appreciate quickly is little. Enterprises should prepare for exchange rate fluctuations the current round of RMB appreciation has been concentrated in September, Ho Jianguo analysis, which will have a certain impact on the export transactions after two months. But the actual impact of the lag period will be a little further, because the order is usually sold after 3 months of delivery. Because, Ho Jianguo believes, the impact of the renminbi appreciation will be reflected in the four quarter, andStep free, and the real response should be next year.　　Although the rate of appreciation of the renminbi is slightly different next year, there is no doubt that the trend of appreciation of the renminbi next year is difficult to change. Tomorrow (15th), China's foreign Trade "barometer" of the 108th session of the Canton Fair will be held. Ho Jianguo suggested that foreign trade enterprises should have a good grasp of the risk of exchange rate. In the price and contract, to better control the cost of the budget, to set aside the 3%-5% exchange rate appreciation of the room.　　Otherwise, if the renminbi appreciates more than expected, the company will suffer losses. Related news Business sentiment index continues to promote new newsletter News (reporter Shing) the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday released the third quarter entrepreneurial confidence index and business sentiment index, as the national economy in the first three quarterly indicators, the two indices are 135.9 and 137.9 respectively, compared to the second quarter of 2.9 points and 2 points respectively. The data show that China's economy continued to grow steadily in the three quarter.　　and due to seasonal factors coupled with a tight policy side, the market believes that the next business boom may come down. Data show that in April this year, China's real estate market issued a series of tightening policy, the two quarter real estate business sentiment index fell back 8.5 points in the first quarter.