Morgan Stanley: China's economy is experiencing inflection point consumption will be the engine of growth

At the 2010 China International Capital Markets Forum held yesterday, several economists said the Chinese economy is expected to face a slowdown in growth starting next year, according to Shen Yu, a journalist.　　Wang Qing, chief economist at Morgan Stanley Asia China, said yesterday that China's GDP growth rate would no longer continue to double digit growth next year, expected to fall to 9.5% per cent, under cyclical effects of economic rules. Consumption will be the engine of growth. Wang Qing said that from China's economic data, China's current economic development is similar to Japan 40 ago and South Korea 20 years ago. If China follows the economic development of Japan and South Korea, then China's current economy is going through an "inflection point." He predicts a significant drop in China's growth rate in the future, and an increase in inflation. At the same time, China's economic structure and income structure will be a profound adjustment, the proportion of services to GDP will increase, consumption gradually become the engine of economic growth.　　The share of industry, manufacturing and exports will gradually decrease. 10 years later or the largest economy but Wang also said China's slowdown is relative to the current high growth rate.　　Conservative estimates that China will grow at a rate of 8% per cent a year, with inflation at 3% to 4%, and the renminbi to rise by 3% against the dollar, the country's 2020-year economic size could reach $20 trillion trillion, or it could become the world's largest economy. Kuijs, a senior Chinese economist at the World Bank, also believes that China's average GDP growth in 2010-2015 was about 8.8%, and 2016-2020 GDP was about 7.3%, and will be increasingly close to the international average. The forecasts are much different from Goldman's earlier assessment of the Chinese economy.　　In Monday, Goldman Sachs predicted that China's economy would continue to grow at a rate of 10% per cent in 2011, while maintaining optimism about the economic outlook. Related news Citigroup: close to the end of 3,500 points said hot money will push up the Chinese stock market, there is the risk of bubble (reporter Shen Yu green) The United States announced a second round of quantitative easing in Wednesday, emerging market countries face a huge inflationary test. Shen Mingliang, chief economist at Citigroup in Greater China, said yesterday at the 2010 China International Capital Markets Forum that the new deal would push more hot money into emerging markets, further boosting Chinese equities.　　He predicted that by the end of this year, the A-share market (prev) will exceed 3,500 points. Shen Mingliang said that the economic recovery in various regions after the financial crisis has been uneven, resulting in policy contrasts between developed and emerging countries. The developed countries continue to introduce looser policies, more money to emerging countries, and emerging-country policies are tightening, pushing up asset prices further.　　The combination of two forces has always been a sensitive Chinese stock market for the dollar or driven further by liquidity. But he also warned that the stock market's rise was not healthy, and that there was a potential for the stock market to face a sharp rise in the bubble as the dollar still had room to appreciate. His advice to investors is, "either don't get in the market or decideWhen to leave. ”