Mr Guo: long-term negative interest rates are bad for the economy

Historically, inflation has been highly consistent with new money supply growth, and there may be some divergence, but it is unlikely to be a long-term "Caixin net" (journalist Feng Zhe) Chairman Guo said that managing inflation expectations is a very important goal in the three major goals of national macroeconomic policy.　　Historically, inflation has been highly consistent with the increase in the supply of money, and there may be some divergence, but it is unlikely to be a long-term phenomenon. Mr Guo said negative interest rates were too long and bad for the economy from China's history. In addition, the current measure of inflation and price increases in the commodity basket is mainly food, but the actual consumption gradually shifted to service-oriented, such as housing, transport, education, telecommunications and so on.　　If the basket is to be adjusted according to the actual consumption structure, the price rise will be very different.　　Lianping, chief economist at Bank of communications, according to the Ministry of Commerce data, September, the price of edible agricultural products rose by 2% per cent, assuming that the September non-food price increase and the same last month, is expected to September CPI year-on-year Rise of about 3.7%, or more than August 3.5%, again to create a new year high. Mr Guo, for example, last week went to a haircut, the original 48 dollars each time, the same shop, the same barber, the same hairstyle, has risen to 68 yuan.　　If you buy a house after 30 years to 50 years to transform the release of these costs, will eventually be transferred to the cost of living, housing prices rose is 10%, not reflected in the price index is clearly unreasonable.　　Real estate Investment is an intermediate input, buy a house to use 30 years 50 years, housing will continue to transform the release of these costs, such as production and operation of the workshop or office after the purchase will be amortized, and eventually will be transferred to the cost of living, real estate rose 10%, can not be in the price index does not respond. Gao Shanwen, chief economist of Shun Securities, believes that as China's economy goes through Lewis's inflection point, the number of young adults in the future is declining, the wage level of low-end labor continues to rise rapidly, thereby systematically pushing up the prices of agricultural products; Because of the rapid technological progress of the industrial sector and the existence of international competition,　　In fact, in many service areas, due to the limitations of technological progress, there will be continued price upward pressure.　　Although the long-term inflation trend has become a basic market agreement, but short-term impact of domestic and foreign economic situation, the central bank in the short-term management of inflation expectations will mainly be based on the number of tools mainly.　　During a meeting with the IMF, Mr. Zhou said to the new finance reporter the choice of policy tools is a more complex issue, whether it is a price-oriented tool or a quantitative tool, the central bank will take full account of the international and domestic situation in the choice of use, if the recovery is more tortuous, it will naturally have a certain impact on domestic economic policies. Mr Zhou believes there is no evidence to suggest that the number of tools already used, including reserve ratios and open market operations, to absorb liquidity, is difficult to achieve the goal of controlling inflation expectations.