New industries reverse imbalances increase investment drive jobs

The central economic Work Conference faces the economic operation six old contradictions December 5 The Central Economic Working Conference held in Beijing, today entered the 3rd day. According to media reports, the central government will set next year's economic growth target of 8%, macroeconomic policy overall continued to remain loose.　　But analysts say the 8% growth target for next year will be different from this year's "Paul VIII", as China's economy has rebounded markedly.　　Xinhua News agency yesterday, "Central Economic Work Conference feature", commenting on the topic of "mid-stream currents, taking advantage of the trend", said: "As the ship to midstream," the current Chinese economy is in a key stage of stable recovery, the economic recovery is not solid foundation, the economic operation of the new and old contradictions and problems intertwined. "If you are complacent and present at this time, you will not only miss out on the opportunities for future development, but may be undone," Xinhua's article said.　　"However, the Politburo meeting of November 27 has set the tone, and China will continue to maintain a positive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy in 2010." But next year's fiscal policy will tilt towards "structural adjustment" and "benefits to the people's livelihood", with emphasis on achieving steady economic growth and maintaining social stability.　　　　It is reported that the Central Economic Work Conference will put forward a clear target of 2010 years of employment, that is, more than 9 million new jobs in cities and towns, and this year flat. There are three major changes in macro policy although China adopts active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, it takes the lead out of the haze of economic crisis. But China's economic contradictions are increasingly prominent, China's macro-control policy faces six major economic contradictions: 4 trillion investment is not encouraging overcapacity? Does expanding investment exacerbate consumption shortages? Does "Paul VIII" contradict the idea of sustainable development? Does economic growth hedge against structural adjustment? Does credit growth lead to inflationary expectations?　　Is "The state enters the people retreat" a true proposition or a pseudo proposition?　　A key problem in China's economy now is that, when the economic downturn has been curbed and turned into a stabilisation channel, the potential negative effects of strong investment on economic growth will emerge and the structural adjustment task becomes more prominent, the Xinhua news agency said yesterday. At present, the world economic recovery road twists and turns long, the external environment of China's economy is still grim, especially export growth is more difficult. To expand domestic demand, we need to stimulate the current not very active private investment, further expand the space for consumption growth in order to enhance the endogenous power and vitality of economic growth.　　In particular, some industries and areas of overcapacity problem is increasingly prominent, urgent to crack; the cultivation and development of some strategic emerging industries urgently needs to be supported.　　In response to these important issues related to the stability, coordination and sustainability of China's economic development, the Central Economic Work conference under way will propose solutions. It is reported that there will be three changes in macro policy.　　First, stimulating domestic demand, especially the growth of consumer demand, will be the main task of economic work next year. Second, the focus of industrial adjustment will beThe elimination of backward excess capacity to support technological innovation. To promote a major restructuring of the economic structure, to promote the development of strategic emerging industries, to provide a new growth engine, so that the economy rebalancing and to higher levels.　　China has made a strategic and global deployment to the development of new industries with a focus on supporting the technology research and development and industrialization of the industries of the third-generation mobile communication, three-net integration and so on, and speeding up the low-carbon economy and the green economy.　　　　Third, to further expand the opening-up policy in order to stabilize foreign investment, encourage imports and enterprises to develop overseas, thereby balancing trade growth. "Development" more than "inflation" next year to implement a positive fiscal policy, 4 trillion investment plans will continue to be implemented, the scale of central investment will be higher than this year. According to the plan, 4 trillion of the central investment of the 118 million yuan will be issued in the 4th quarter and next year, of which 2010-year arrangement of investment 588.5 billion yuan, higher than the level of 487.5 billion yuan this year.　　With the further increase in central investment next year, more local and social investment will be driven, and the investment of the whole society may be further accelerated.　　According to experts, fiscal spending is expected to keep growing this year, with a deficit of roughly the same size as this year, with a deficit still under 3% or less.　　For some academics worried about the inflation problem, some media believe that the central government that inflation is still manageable, so "prevent inflation will not become the main line of economic work next year." Li, deputy dean of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the 2009 focus on "loose", with a focus on "moderation" in the 2010, is a moderately loose monetary policy.　　This information shows that at the decision-making level, "development theory" more than "inflation theory", still prevails. However, Gong, vice chairman of JPMorgan's investment bank, said in an interview with CCTV that "for example, when inflation returns to 2%-3% next year, the current one-year savings rate is 2.25%, so there may be room for one or two interest rate hikes to avoid negative savings rates." "The most important: investment-driven employment growth situation in the next year there are some variables." In particular, whether the most important driving force for economic growth can lead to effective employment growth is one of the most worrying issues for the policy makers at the central level. On the one hand, a large amount of investment is still concentrated in infrastructure construction and other capital-intensive industries, the actual pull of employment is very limited; at the same time, investment orientation preference for large state-owned enterprises, SME financing difficult situation has not significantly improved, and the main force to recruit and employment is small and medium-sized enterprises, thus increasing　　In addition, the "adjustment structure" to the contribution of employment growth can be how much, is also an unknown.　　Some analysts believe that the focus of the central work next year or a change, not only focus on investment-driven economic growth, but also research to allow investment to drive more job growth. It is understood that in late November, the National Development and Reform Commission Employment Division led the national Investment-driven Employment symposium, has "investment-driven employment" as the next year the most important job. According to Hong KongMedia reports, in addition to continuing the current policy of stabilizing employment, the central government will study the introduction of targeted new policies to promote employment growth next year: In order to increase investment, the central government will increase employment assessment and assessment in the process of investment approval, and the central government will enhance the assessment and accountability of local governments ' employment performance, Establish the linkage mechanism between economic growth and employment expansion to achieve "benefits to the people's livelihood".