New wealth shows December export growth declines but remains strong

13 economists forecast the average export growth rate of 22.4%, the trade surplus is still high "Caixin net" (reporter Yu Hailong) Although the base significantly higher, December 2010 Strong export orders, or still keep exports strong growth. At the beginning of January 2011, the Caixin media sent questionnaires to the economists of several securities companies and commercial banks to investigate their forecasts of China's macroeconomic data for December.　　The 13 economists who responded to the questionnaire predicted an average of 22.4% for the December export growth rate, although it fell 12.5% from November, but growth remained strong.　　It is customary that the general administration of Customs will publish the import and export figures for December and 2010 for the year January 10 (next Monday).　　The 13 economists involved in the new media survey agreed that export growth would slow in December after unexpectedly high growth in November, but that the forecast for the slowdown was far from the most optimistic, with a forecast of 30% per cent and a minimum of 13.6%. According to Wang Tao, China economist at UBS Securities, export orders were strong in the past few months and climbed again in November 2010 and December, as the purchasing managers ' index showed.　　She expects exports to grow close to 30% per cent year-on-year in December, which will allow exports to grow at around 33% a year, much higher than expected in early 2010.　　The new export Order index for the December manufacturing Purchasing Managers ' Index (PMI), released January 1, was 53.5%, up 0.3% from November. Shen Jianguang, chief economist at Mizuho Securities Greater China, said the PMI data showed that external demand was still strong and should not be too pessimistic about the world economy, especially the US economy.　　Based on the more upbeat U.S. economic data, he expects exports to grow by 20% per cent year-on-year in December. Pengcheng, a Chinese economist at Citibank, said the unexpected growth in November was partly attributable to strong external demand and domestic demand, as well as to a rise in the fall in October.　　In his view, export growth remained strong in December and is expected to reach 25.7% per cent. Import growth will also fall after exceeding expectations in November.　　13 economists agree that import growth will slow in December, with a forecast of a mean of 23.6%, down 14.2% from November, with a maximum of 32% and a minimum value of 16%. The PMI import index for December was 50.4%, down 0.2% from November. However, Shen Jianguang that the November PMI import index decline was not reflected in the import data, considering the history of the general December imports than November and domestic demand remains strong two factors, the total imports will remain high.　　Higher base effect, the expected December import growth rate may be located around 20%.　　Pengcheng that the import growth rate will fall to 24.3%, constrained by a slowdown in domestic credit and investment. The trade surplus will remain high. The 13 economists surveyed averaged $21.24 billion for the trade surplus, a maximum of 24.8 billion dollars, and a minimumReached 18.2 billion dollars. Shen Jianguang expects the December trade surplus to be close to $22 billion trillion, the 2010 trade surplus will reach 193 billion U.S. dollars, the future revaluation pressure still exists, is expected to rise in 2011, the renminbi will reach about 5%, at the end of the year, the renminbi exchange rate will be between 6.1 to 6.3.