One-year central vote two weeks after the bond market to bear adjustment

July 16, the stock market to go low, the final prev close to 3183.74 points.　　The bond market is clearly less sanguine than the micro-adjustment of the stock market.　　In the past two weeks, the central bank's frequent action of open market operations, the release of a clear monetary policy fine-tuning signal, so that the IPO in the middle of the gap between the bond market, again worse. Is the day, the national Debt index closed at 121.08 points, continued to fall 0.02. On the same day, the yields on the short end of the national debt continued to rise markedly, up from about 10 BP on the day.　　One-year bond yields in the interbank market Rose 1.37%, with 2-year gains of 1.584% and 3-year gains of 2.27%, according to information from China's bond network. "This is the beginning of a new bear market," he said.　　"A bond trader in a securities firm thinks.　　So far, the one-year central-vote yield has risen to 1.59% from the 1.3% lows of the year, and the 3-year bond yield has risen from around 1.6% in the year to around 2.22% per cent.　　Central vote Although the bond market has entered a new round of adjustment since the IPO restart, the bear market forecast is so clear that the certainty comes from the "reassurance" given by the one-year central vote. The market has been paying close attention to the signal utility released by the open market operation since the resumption of the 8-month closing vote last week in 41.　　The resumption of the central bank's resumption of funds, given the longer term of the one-year vote, suggests a clear intention to fine-tune monetary policy. "How the rate of return is going will directly imply an adjustment to the future bond market, which has been in a rather uneasy place since it is expected that the bond market will enter a period of significant yield adjustments."　　Said the trader.　　One obvious manifestation of unrest is the proliferation of selling, especially in the face of unprecedented selling pressures on short-term products. Statistics from wind information show that since the beginning of July, the medium and short term bonds continued to be covered by insurance, funds and other mainly selling, only July 6, the insurance companies threw 5.41 billion yuan bonds, the fund company sold 5.145 billion yuan that day.　　July 7, the fund company continued to throw 2.705 billion yuan, insurance companies to throw 1.628 billion yuan, the same day joint-stock banks and state-owned banks also add parabolic sequence, joint-stock thrown 2.431 billion yuan, state-owned banks to throw 2.517 billion yuan.　　The Sell-off has continued. July 15, due to the expected Thursday issue of the one-year central vote will continue to rise, July 16, the bond market since 3 o'clock in the afternoon began to appear a large number of "buying" by the point of the situation, many banks to join the "point" sequence. "It shows that the selling mentality is more intense.　　Said the trader. On July 16, after one-year central bank vote was released, the market again entered the "point" war, and continued to strengthen the pressure. On the same day, the central bank carried out a 50 billion-yuan currency, of which 3-month-old votes 30 billion yuan, 1-year vote 20 billion yuan. With the Thursday each 50 billion yuan circulation ratio, the withdrawal strength has been greatly reduced. The decline in circulation did not prevent the proceeds from continuing upward. 3-month periodThe central vote continued to rise 121 points over the previous week, while the one-year central vote rose 73 points.　　The decline in the volume of the rise, more determined the market bullish expectations. An analyst at Orient Securities said: "This shows that the agency is still bullish, the demand for short-term bond allocation falls, and on the other hand, if the central bank to maintain the same circulation as last week, it will lead to a faster rate of return rise."　　"Bullish, almost has become a consensus, which further exacerbated the bond market short-term panic." How long has the bear market been in the eyes of many bond analysts, this round of adjustment is accidental inevitable.　　The process of bond market entering bear market is actually a kind of rectification to the low yield of early stage. "It is now in the process of discovering a price, which is obviously too low, even slightly higher than the reserve rate at the beginning of the year. The Galactic Securities analyst said, "How long has the process of re-discovering prices determined the maturity of the bond market adjustment?"　　"With the resumption of IPO, the rise of inflation expectation and the fine-tuning of monetary policy, the cross release of a number of comprehensive measures has accelerated the coming of this round of the adjustment cycle of the bond market." First, the long debt begins to adjust ahead of inflationary expectations. Subsequently, the arrival of the IPO in two ways to accelerate the rise in short-term debt yields, one is the rapid rise in the interbank market capital prices, the second is the insurance Fund and other institutions to abandon debt from stocks.　　In the meantime, the monetary fine-tuning signal released by the central bank's open market operation has become the last straw that has hit the debt market completely into a "bear market". Two weeks ago, the central bank's open market operation broke the steady yield of about half a year, the 3-month-long vote and the short-term repurchase began to soar, the government bonds began to stream events.　　Last week, after the central bank restarted the 1-year vote, two of short-term Treasuries issued on the day suffered stream fortunes, and the Monday plan to pack out local debt was forced to be postponed for stream.　　Panic and wait and see, spread in the bond market. But obviously, everything is still in the process.　　The continued sharp rise in the annual Merken of July 16 hints at the central bank's rise in yields.　　Behind this, the real release is the signal of a tightening of monetary credit.　　By the end of June, 7.3 trillion yuan of credit growth, and more than 28% of M2 growth, so that the annual established moderately loose monetary policy appears "too Loose", a new round of regulation is inevitable. "The central bank must maintain a rise in yields before it can achieve the effect of currency withdrawal," he said.　　"The Bank of China Global Financial market team analyst Benji said, but this will not be the only policy, to make credit control, the implementation of the policy must cooperate with the regulation of credit to achieve results." July 15, hundreds of billions of directional votes to restart, clear from the tight signal release. The 15-16th bond market slump suggests that the market has taken a hint.