Poly Real Estate into the "post 50 billion" era: sideways or up?

At the beginning of the 50 billion sales task, was Poly Real Estate (600048. SH, hereinafter called "Poly", is locked in advance for the 10th month of the year, but it's not the time to celebrate.　　Given the group's "three-year reengineering" plan at the start of 2010, it is the question that Paulie will have to think about how to keep the same pace of growth next year in a more unpredictable market environment. The choice of 50 billion ago Paulie seems to have gotten used to the high speed of growth.　　Data show that since 2006 in SSE, the company's compound annual growth rate of about 80%, even the worst market environment in 2008, Paulie still let their sales doubled, profit growth of 50%. October 4, the Poly issued a notice said that October the company to achieve the contract area of 777,800 square meters, to achieve the signing amount of 8.924 billion yuan.　　In January-October, the company signed the amount of 50.32 billion yuan, an increase of 36.51%, contracted area of 5.6061 million square meters, an increase of 25.79%. Since then, Poly has easily completed the "Lei Yue Longmen", over 50 billion of this hurdle. But can "poly speed" continue if its assets are over 120 billion and sales exceed 50 billion a year?　　The result is still a little confusing. At the moment, look at Vanke a (000002.SZ) through the road, perhaps can find some clues to learn. When Vanke, in 2007, refreshed its record with 52.3 billion, it was also bold in setting the target of continuing growth and hitting 80 billion in the next year.　　But then the result is: sudden policy regulation and the ensuing market deep adjustment, let Vanke at 50 billion of the gateway horizontal plate for two years, until the third year 2010 years to achieve 80 billion leap. Today, the pattern in front of Paulie is somewhat similar to that of Vanke in the 2007.　　In particular, the severity of macro-control than the last round, to a certain extent, the investment demand for developers to determine the sales of the "Hunger therapy" and restricted admission, the market only the rigidity of the demand also appears to be "caught in wait and see" trend. An industry insider said: "Throughout the development trajectory analysis of many large companies, from 10 billion to 50 billion this phase is very easy to achieve a doubling of the annual growth rate, but the possibility of maintaining this speed above 50 billion is not nearly." As a result, many companies will be on the 50 billion horizontal plate for a period of time.　　"In fact, a careful person will find that, since last year, Paulie has quietly" lowered the demand ", no longer like the first three years of the market to double the annual chase, but the three-year doubling plan to reduce annual growth rate to the more easily achieved 30%~50%.　　For the market prospects, Poly board Secretary Yuayong insisted "long-term not pessimistic, short-term not optimistic" judgment, but he still said that Poly "three years of recycling" plan has not changed, "rapid turnaround" is always the company's basic strategy. Three-year doubling pressure due to Poly Chairman Song GuangChrysanthemum, in early 2010, proposed a "three-year total assets doubled" strategy, which will force the company's multiple financial indicators must be increased by an average annual 20%~30% 2012 years ago. From the perspective of performance growth, Paulie is not overly worried. Its three quarterly reports show that the company's pre-sale accounts amounted to 46.8 billion yuan.　　Research institutions Analysis, the group is expected to settle 31 billion yuan this year, and 1 ~ September has settled 17.3 billion yuan, equivalent to 33.1 billion yuan will enter the 2011 and after the settlement, the performance of locking strong. But in terms of sales growth, the challenge for Paulie next year is not big. This year, there are two months left, it is expected that the annual contract of Poly 55 billion is a big probability event.　　The company's sales target for next year should be more than 70 billion, according to a 30% per cent next year's guaranteed estimate.　　To a single plate sales rate of 70%, poly next year should be in the volume of 100 billion or so, and in accordance with its 8500 yuan/square meters of unit price estimates, the group will be sold next year at least 12 million square meters.　　Up to now, Poly New starting area of about 7 million square meters this year, is expected to start the whole year new construction area between 8 million ~900 million square meters, the basic and next year's supply volume is equal.　　The land is a "double-edged sword" increasingly large scale, forcing Poly to land this basic raw material demand is also increasing, this is the group from 2009 onwards the root cause of large-scale purchase. Data show that in 2009, poly new Land reserves by the volume rate area of about 14 million square meters, the total number of 38 projects, is the largest number of new land developers last year.　　Since this year, the pace of the group has not slowed down, the new land of about 10 million square meters, so that the group did not start land reserves close to 30 million square meters.　　Just released in October reported that the recent Poly subsidiaries in Xiamen, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Nantong and other areas to obtain a number of new land use rights, the total involved in the amount of more than 8.5 billion yuan. Yuayong insists that in order to ensure annual supply, Paulie must start as soon as possible at the same time as the massive land grab.　　36 of these projects are currently under construction. "The development of real estate projects need a long period of time, often early planning to run out of six months, so the 2011 to sell the house, need to prepare land in 2009, the same, 2012 sold the house, probably the end of this year will have to implement the land." "In Yuayong's view, it is assumed that the company's sales area of about 7 million square meters this year, according to the 70% sales rate, the actual saleable area needs to prepare 10 million square meters, and then the volume rate area in the deduction of the supporting and some commercial, only the 2010 cost of land area of about 15 million square meters According to the annual 20%~30% growth rate of the company, the required land reserve is about 15 million square meters by 2012. "According to the logic of the rapid development of poly, if the new land reserves of 10 million square meters this year, the actual can not meet the sales need." "We do also face certain regional land storageThe present situation, such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, because the land price is carried too high, our reserves have obviously not kept pace with the development, which led to a downward trend in the share of these cities this year.　　"The data show that the company's sales in three cities north of this year accounted for only about 30% of the group's sales, while the other 70% were transferred to two or three-line cities.　　Since the average selling price of the two or three-tier city is lower than that of a first-tier city, it also determines that the future of Poly sales will have to be increased annually in exchange for a simultaneous increase in sales. In fact, the developers who are concentrated in the two or three-line cities face a similar strategy, namely, increasing land reserves and operating capacity. More typical enterprises such as the constant land production (03333.　　HK) and bi-garden (02007.HK), whose land reserves and annual operating capacity have been much higher than the industry average.　　However, the advance reserve in the land market is not foolproof, once the market because of regulation and other factors such as fall into the waiting, the situation of poor sales, in the presence of Paulie will have only two options: in the form of inventory backlog of funds, or price reduction of sales squeeze profits. The fast-changing market environment, Poly This step is not go right, still have time to test.