Private placement, analyst, economist how to argue after 2,600 points

Wen/Li Gang, "is not I do not understand, is the world changes fast".　　Only half a year, inadvertently, the Shanghai and Shenzhen cities have 800 only stock rebound margin of more than 100%, almost accounted for half of all listed companies, although the Shanghai Composite Index in mid-May long in the near 2,600 point saw, although the economic bottom of the controversy is still ongoing.　　How to deal with it? It is a good choice to listen to the opinions of the industry professionals.　　But in the face of the same object, using similar arguments and analytical methods, the answer is not unique.　　Relatively optimistic Deng Jijun, taking into account the balance of the land and water flag, the main cautious Yinjian, with meticulous thinking and detailed arguments for support, the conclusion is not the same, or even diametrically opposed, people can not help feeling the great man once said a word, "someone's place, on the left and right." This is not surprising, the angle is to draw different conclusions important influence factor.　　With a telescope or a microscope, the observed condition must be inconsistent. Mentality is also an important factor in drawing different conclusions.　　Just like the face of a drink half of the wine, in the eyes of optimism, there are half a cup of wine to enjoy, while the pessimistic people sigh feeling, although the wine is good, but only half a cup.　　Who is the best person to say?　　"Wind" or "flag move"? When it is difficult to choose, it is "heart moving". The most crucial factor is not economic data, inflation or deflation, but ourselves. The spirit of "instead" attitude, to coarse, to take its essence, and on this basis, to find the most suitable for their own investment guidance and trading strategy, is the right path.　　Market, their own decisions! Shenzhen Shenzhen Golden and investment director Deng Jijun: two quarterly quotes most easily grasp the text/Li Gang, design/Zhaolanjin 2008, Shenzhen Shenzhen Golden and First World War fame.　　According to the statistics from the Good Buy fund network, in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 The total decline of 65% in the case, the heavy country investment Shenzhen Golden and the West Tripod securities set Funds investment trust program, still get 20.08% positive returns, in all sunshine Private placement first. Shenzhen Golden and investment team experience for more than 15 years, all from the brokerage.　　Deng Jijun is a state-backed securities Shenzhen Red Ridge Middle Road Sales department.　　Second-quarter highs at 2800~3200 Point "investment Youdao" (hereinafter referred to as "MJ"): What is your basic opinion on the market in the second half of 2009? What is the judgment on the operating range of the Shanghai Composite Index? Deng Jijun: I tend to see the bottom of the market, but to get out of the bottom of the region, began to enter the ascent stage, but also based on a lot of macro data to further observe.　　Now is a long time to pick up the process, for a longer period of time to determine the trend of the market, but also need to be revised according to the new situation.　　But for the two quarter, our view is more clear, two-quarter uncertainty, relative to the year, the most easy to grasp.　　As for the operating range of the Shanghai Composite Index, we judged that the low point at 2000 points, the high point at 2,800 ~3200 points. MJ: What is the reason for this judgment? You personally think thatWhat are the factors that should be valued in future? Deng Jijun: A once-in-a-century financial crisis has seriously impacted the world. As far as China is concerned, our economic problems are much smaller than those in America. The state of foreign exchange reserves and the overall financial situation is very good, the financial system is also very stable, there is no such a big problem like the United States or Europe.　　Our political system and the executive power of the government are more advantageous and can lead us out of the trough.　　Based on the above, I think we can remain relatively optimistic.　　Investment and mergers and acquisitions can not rely on the news MJ: based on such a judgment, what is the industry or plate to be relatively optimistic about? Deng Jijun: Mergers and acquisitions and new energy investment theme, can focus on, especially mergers and acquisitions restructuring theme.　　At the end of April, we also launched the first domestic theme investment trust program--Suck-shin, Shenzhen Golden and 1-phase mergers and acquisitions theme Securities Investment Collection Fund Trust program.　　Optimistic about the merger and reorganization theme, there are the following 5 reasons. First, the management vigorously advance.　　In the past 3 years, the number of central enterprises has been reduced from more than 180 to more than 140, the average reduction of 1 per month or so, according to the SASAC plan, to the end of the "Eleven-Five", the number of central enterprises will be reduced to 80 to 100. Second, the laws and regulations of the supporting measures to further improve.　　At the end of last year, the CBRC issued the "Commercial Bank merger and acquisition loan risk management guidelines" to provide more protection for mergers and acquisitions; in the 10 industry revitalization plan, mergers and acquisitions are encouraged to cover almost every industry.　　The downturn in the economic cycle and the sharp decline in stock market valuations provide a rare opportunity for industrial capital to intervene.　　When the stock market is depressed, the merger behavior is the most active and the success rate is high. Five, many companies have mergers and acquisitions intention.　　According to our statistics, at present, the listed companies have the intention of the number of companies up to 564, accounting for more than 30%.　　MJ: Merger and reorganization subject is relatively difficult to grasp, can you talk about your experience and experience?　　Deng Jijun: Indeed, it is difficult to grasp such subjects, although the merger and reorganization of the subject matter with its higher returns and lower risk, has always been favored by investors. Personally, it is taboo to invest in such subject matter by information. In fact, the merger and reorganization of the subject matter is completely traceable.　　A stock in which information is disclosed; second, public disclosure of major shareholder changes and major shareholder equity competition for stocks; clues third, through further careful in-depth study to obtain information. Lu Shuixi, chief analyst of Securities and exchange: the stage highs three quarter appeared wen/Li Gangtu/hu June Design/Zhaolanjin as the domestic well-known securities information Web site-securities Qualcomm's deputy and chief analyst, Lu Shuixi view, sharp insight.　　With more than 16 years experience, he has kept close contact with the market and is good at analyzing the essence of market from a unique angle.　　The market is running in an "anti-expected" way MJ: What do you think of the second half of the 2009? What is the judgment on the operating range of the Shanghai Composite Index? Lu Shuixi: The market will most likely be "reverse-expected" in the face of investors, and at the beginning of the year most institutional investors preMeasured the "first fall after the rise", "before the low after high" on the contrary. The rationale behind the agency's forecast for "pre-low" is that the first quarter's economic data, the company's worst performance, and the three-quarter economy will start to recover, when the market will be good performance.　　But in fact, the current market has overturned the same year's consensus expectations, it is likely to be in the direction of "reverse expectations", the rebound stage highs will appear in the three quarter.　　By then, the Shanghai Composite Index will be located at the 3100~3600 Point, and this year, the Shanghai Composite Index will not be lower than 2000 points.　　MJ: What's the reason for this kind of judgment? What is your personal analysis?　　Lu Shuixi: Macroeconomic data and P/E ratios, which will appear "double high" in the three quarter, are my first basis. The time lag for economic stimulus measures is generally 6 months. Beautiful economic data will be reflected in the three quarter. Since then, while the policy effect of stimulating the recovery is still in place, data for a number of quarters will be difficult to overtake this year's three-quarter breakout.　　So unless there is a very clear signal of a global revival in the three quarter, pretty good economic data is likely to become a "dead light" flare in the stock market. According to the current company has published data, even if the Shanghai Composite index no longer rose at 2,600 points, to three quarters, a-share market weighted dynamic P/E ratio will be more than 27 times times.　　If the future market rises further, the valuation level will be higher.　　Many events will be concentrated in the three quarter, and will be from both supply and demand for the market impact, which I gave the second basis for this judgment. The market is widely expected, the gem launched the time point is August.　　As for the board IPO, although the new distribution system is still in the process of soliciting comments, I infer that its restart time should not be too long with the launch of the gem. In addition, July and October are the peak months of this year's ban on restricted stocks, which will increase market demand for capital.　　And from the supply of funds, the bill financing period of most of the 4-6 months, three quarters will appear the peak of capital recovery, market liquidity will appear phased tightening.　　Attention to finance, real estate, machinery, steel MJ: Based on such judgments, can be relatively optimistic about the industry or plate is what? Lu Shuixi: Finance, Real estate, construction machinery, raw materials 4 industries can be optimistic. Economic and corporate earnings tend to revive, and therefore, the market will be "liquidity + theme" of the driving model to "liquidity + recovery" of the driving model evolution.　　After April at the end of the 2,579 to 2,372 adjustment of the "transformation shock", the content of the market has changed greatly, the concept, subject stock fall and differentiation, the market fundamentals began to increase. It runs through the real estate industry of 42 Sub industries, "Left join investment, right belt consumption" and banking industry is regarded as "the lifeblood of the economy", if these two industries do not recover, the whole economy will be difficult to have a substantial recovery. As for the construction machinery and raw materials industry, as the focus of stimulating the economy this year is investment, therefore, as the infrastructure and project investment upstream industry engineering machinery, it is worth holdingcontinue to watch.　　And as the "economic arm and leg" of steel and other raw materials industry, in the context of economic recovery, natural will also be a significant recovery. Yinjian, executive vice president, China-Europe Lujiazui International Finance Research Institute: Cycle theory shows that the economy has not yet seen the bottom/Li Gangtu/hu June Design/Zhaolanjin as one of the representatives of academia in the field of financial studies, Yinjian as the executive vice president of the Continental Institute of International Finance and director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences August 2007, in the bank's wealth management products, he was keen to see the hidden dangers behind the prosperity, and pointed out that domestic banking products exist in the 7 major risks.　　Then, a series of problems surrounding the bank's products validated his foresight.　　The main tone will be trending down MJ: What do you think of the second half of the 2009? What is the judgment on the operating range of the Shanghai Composite Index? Yinjian: Under the influence of expansionary monetary policy, the rally of stock market is close to 60%, but the lack of the rebound of fundamental support, can only be last gasps.　　I am cautious and even pessimistic about the short-term market. The main tone of the market will be the trend of decline in the fall of the channel to catch rebound, is undoubtedly "chestnuts out", the risk is greater than opportunities.　　As for the operating range of the Shanghai Composite Index, it is difficult for me to give a reference standard by the influence of many factors.　　MJ: What is the reason for this judgment? What is your personal opinion of the factors that should be valued in future analysis?　　Yinjian: My basis is to study the macro-economic and operational cycle, historical data and historical performance is an important reference, the so-called "let history tell the future."　　From China's past economic growth, the economic cycle has shown a clear operating rule, down 4-5 years, up 5-6 years. From 2001 onwards, the upward phase of the economic cycle lasted until 2007, with a long period of up to 7 years.　　But the long cycle does not mean that the cycle disappears. The economic crisis is global, the depth and breadth of the impact is far greater than the last Asian financial crisis.　　If the cycle of descent is determined to start in 2008, it is only now entering its 2nd year.　　Inflation is not the problem MJ: There is a different view on inflation and deflation.　　Yinjian: Inflation is not a problem at least at the moment, nor is it a problem for the foreseeable future 35 years.　　In response to the crisis, the Fed has taken some measures, such as a direct takeover of 300 billion of government bonds by the Federal Reserve, which many believe will cause inflation, but only in this open market. The data showed that in 2007 the Fed's dollar-denominated base currency accounted for only 3% of the money in circulation, with securitised assets of $14 trillion trillion and bank loans on almost that scale.　　If the future banks do not lend, securitisation does not go on, the Fed's issuance of debt even if the expansion of 10 times times, it is difficult to trigger inflation. The rebound in crude oil prices is thought to be one of the signs that inflation is about to come, but it should be seen that crudeThe price is high, there is suspicion of hedge fund price manipulation.　　The cost of new energy is too high MJ: What is the reason you are not bullish on the new energy industry?　　Yinjian: Wind, solar, nuclear power, wind energy costs are relatively low, other energy costs are very high, whether the profit is worrying, rely solely on government subsidies, in 3-5 years will not produce results. In addition, in the analysis of new energy issues, we must hold a general equilibrium point of view, rather than a partial equilibrium point of view. If the new energy can achieve a certain effect, play a role, will be crude oil, natural gas and other old energy prices downward pull, and improve the attractiveness of old energy, thereby creating new energy challenges.