property market adjustment or completion within two quarters of the cycle and the range is smaller than 08

Ouzi Investment bank CLSA convened China Investment Forum A number of experts believe that: property market adjustment or the completion of the forecast within two quarters of the adjustment cycle and the range is smaller than 2008, some real estate stocks have fallen out of the investment value of stormy regulation policy, crumbling housing prices, has been halved property stocks ...　　At the 15th session of the CLSA China Investment Forum held in Shanghai these two days, the trend of real estate industry and its influence on economic and financial is undoubtedly the most concerned topic. Yesterday, real estate stocks also carried a a-share rebound banner. How to look at policy trends and property industry and investment value?　　Reporters at the meeting interviewed the CLSA research macro, real estate and strategy of a number of people, and domestic experts are different from the overseas perspective to give a very similar conclusion.　　The adjustment of the property market will be milder than that of 2008. Wang, regional director of the research Department of CLSA real estate industry, has a long-term study of the changes in the domestic and foreign real estate industry, and she believes that the key factor in determining the long-term trend of the property market is supply and demand, which also determines that the "The characteristics of the property market is similar to the 2008, housing loans and financing of developers began to tighten," but wang that the adjustment of the property market and the period will be smaller than 2008.　　On the one hand, compared with the 2008, real estate business cash flow situation is more well-off, on the other hand, there is a demand for home buyers have 2008 years of experience, property prices have a certain decline will be shot. "This time the property price adjustment, we look about 15%, turnover is expected to fall 10%-20%". Wang judge, if the regulation of the property market tightening, the property market will be completed around two quarters adjustment. "Recently, Vanke and other real estate developers have begun to adjust prices, real estate business response compared to 2008 a lot faster."　　Since April 15, when the government began to formally adjust, in just three weeks, 99% of the developers we contacted had begun to evaluate cash flow and assess how to respond if sales plummeted. The real estate bubble is far less than the U.S. recent news that China's central city's property prices are already higher than the U.S. property prices, there is a huge bubble. But CLSA China a a-share market Research department director Ming told our correspondent, the property market whether there is a bubble should not look at the price of property prices, but mortgage ratio. "The United States to buy a house down payment is very low, or even 0 of the first pay, if the Chinese real estate market compared to the United States, certainly is completely different, China's real estate mortgage ratio of almost 60%, now lower, even if the price adjustment on the impact of loans will not be too big."　　"It is reported that when the Asian financial crisis occurred in Hong Kong, house prices plunged to 50%, but the default rate of repayment of loans is only 1.4%." "There are many problems in China's real estate market, but it cannot be called a ' bubble '. A housing market with a low leverage ratio is unlikely to bubble.　　"CLSA China macro strategy analyst Rothman said. Rothman that there is no need to worry about whether excessive debt on local financing platforms poses a risk to the financial system. "In China,Local financial problems, the central government will not ignore, this is not the same as the United States, before the New York City, Orange County into bankruptcy, the federal state has not shot.　　He believes that the adjustment of local government financing structure is a long-term problem to be solved, short-term to the Chinese banking industry is unlikely to bring huge exposure.　　Property tax is not good for the real estate market is very concerned about the property tax problem, CLSA believes that the Chinese government in the next few years will introduce property tax, the mainstream of the international market has introduced a property tax, which is an excellent channel. "Property tax is not necessarily bad news for the property market, London, New York, Hong Kong, these markets have property tax, so over the years, is very healthy." The key question is not whether China will introduce a property tax, but rather the scope and actual rate of the levy. Rothman said the property tax, even if introduced, would not give the agency a loss of confidence in China's property market. "The key is to see how high the tax rate, will not be high to the purchase of people is a punitive tax rate."　　The government's push to do so is to curb speculation, and the Chinese government has many financial instruments, such as interest rates to adjust the market. Rothman also said that the government should be more patient with the introduction of the property Control policy. "The government should not be too hasty in introducing regulatory policies, there will be time for policy to be effective and not overdo it, and the government's intervention in the real estate market should focus on the cities in question rather than on the development of the whole property market."　　"Large-market property stocks have been very attractive since last year, at the end of 2008, the first rebound in real estate stocks plunged into the vanguard, many real estate industry shares were halved or even more, there are many fund managers are claiming that 2 years will not touch property stocks.　　But yesterday, Wang gave the opposite answer, "if it is two-year investment, can buy real estate stocks Today", coincidentally, real estate stocks in the afternoon appeared a collective blowout.　　"Indeed, the growth of the consumer sector is more clear than the real estate industry, but the former valuation is three times times the latter, buy stocks to see whether the risk and return match", Wang that the current a-share property stocks, although not seriously underestimated, but has entered a value range. "At present, the residential market in the mainland of China and Hong Kong in the 70 's was very similar, when the home ownership rate of Hong Kong started from 20% and finally stabilized at about 50%, while Hong Kong 30 years ago there were 500 developers and now only 5 active property developers."　　Wang said that in the process, large developers benefited the most, which is a good experience for the mainland. CLSA (Clsaasia-pacificmarkets, full name), founded in 1986 and headquartered in Hong Kong, is a Ouzi financial institution mainly engaged in securities brokerage, investment banking and private investment in the Asia Pacific region. Lyon's largest single shareholder was originally France's Lyon group (Creditlyonnais), followed by the Lyon group in 2003 with French agricultureMerger of credit groups.　　Since then CLSA has been a branch of the agricultural Credit Group in the Asia-Pacific investment Bank. (Reporter Jiashomin Shanghai Report)