property market turnover sharply reduced housing prices will trigger a market price surge

Recently, the reporter in Beijing to follow the whole process to participate in a visit to the group activities, the regiment size of eighty or ninety people, full filled with two buses, see the House line for the relatively low price of daxing line.　　But one day, the reporter found that none of the members of the group decided to buy a house immediately. Xinhua Shanghai, June 10 (Xinhua Wei Zongkai, Ye Feng) National Bureau of Statistics released on 10th, the May nationwide 70 large and medium-sized housing sales rose to a 14-month low, commercial housing sales area and sales fell 15.8% and 25%, The year-on-year rise in house prices was the first to fall in 14 months. At present, some well-known housing companies have been discounted sales, the parties to the decline in housing prices are expected to further enhance.　　In this situation, will the market usher in a wave of price cuts? May Real Estate market turnover according to the National Bureau of Statistics 10th released data, May nationwide 70 large and medium-sized housing sales prices rose 0.2% per cent, the increase is 1.2% lower than April, the chain rose to a 14-month low.　　May month, commercial housing sales area of 67.77 million square meters, reduced by 12.74 million square meters, down 15.8%, commercial housing sales 333.5 billion yuan, reduced by 111.3 billion yuan last month, down 25%. Listed housing companies recently announced sales results also support the May is the developers collective "Waterloo": In terms of sales area and sales, real estate leading enterprises Vanke fell 25.8% and 34.5% respectively, the group fell 41.6% and 32.6%. Hong Kong-listed housing enterprises in the real estate, the country garden, poly May sales fell 49%, 27% and 17% respectively. According to BOC International Statistics, May in Hong Kong listed housing sales average decline of more than 37%. Statistics from the China Index Institute also show that the first-tier cities cut their volume by half in May, with nearly a total decline of about 44% in the 30 cities it monitors.　　Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Nanjing all fell to the lowest level in history. In the past one months, with the central and local governments at various levels of the government's real estate control policies have been introduced, not only the sales of newly built goods fell, second-hand housing sales price also fell. According to the Central Plains real estate monitoring data show that May Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen Five cities second-hand housing turnover reached 30%-80%, down to the lowest point since 2007. In Shenzhen and Shanghai, turnover was the largest, 78% and 75% respectively; In addition to Tianjin, the five major cities in the remaining four of urban second-hand housing prices have a different range of decline.　　In Shenzhen and Shanghai, prices fell to 2.9% and 2.5% respectively, and Beijing and Guangzhou fell by 1.6% and 1.5% respectively. Zhongyuan Group Research Center Manager Guanving that the changes in the 2008-year property market is different, when the new residential prices led to lower prices of second-hand housing, and this time, mainly second-hand housing prices led to lower prices of new homes。　　In the next 2-3 months, the decline in second-hand residential prices in local markets may continue to widen, and the impact on the new residential market will continue. Well-known housing prices to promote high prices show signs of loosening after Evergrande Real Estate announced the first large range of price sales, in mid-May, developers to reduce the trend of sales promotion becomes clearer. May 15, Forte Group in Shanghai Minhang Zhuan Bridge area of a real estate opening, sales in the average price of more than 12,000 yuan per square meter, compared to the previous market expectations of about 15% lower. Fanwei, chairman of Forte, does not mince the sale: "We must adjust the price and adjust the mentality according to the change of customer's thinking." "Coincidentally, well-known housing enterprise Greenland Group also announced recently, to 41 cities across the country more than 100 projects to carry out promotional promotions."　　More housing companies, direct or indirect discounts have been quietly carried out. Why do the housing companies drop the high prices? Some companies said that the price is the company's established sales strategy, and regulation is not directly related to the company's cash flow is very abundant, price reduction is just taking advantage of the market downturn to consolidate the "site." Evergrande Real Estate President Xia Haijun that the current international capital market for real estate enterprises outside the window has closed, domestic bank credit is also gradually tightened, coupled with the sale of no effective growth, the real estate business cash flow will create pressure.　　If not cut prices, sales will decline, real estate companies will gradually increase the capital pressure. According to Guotai Securities statistics, up to now, a total of 39 a-share listed real estate companies proposed to raise 89 billion yuan, but has not been approved. As a result of the policy and the fall in share prices, China Merchants Real Estate, Shimao shares have announced the cancellation of financing plans.　　Many institutions believe that, although most developers are "not bad money", but strict credit policies will limit sales to a lower level, and a sharp cash-back slowdown will force developers to cut prices; In addition, the strict levy of land value-added tax will make the developer's fund chain further tighten, price is the developer of rapid withdrawal of funds inevitable choice.　　As it turns out, promotions are very effective: from May 6 to May 31, the average daily contract sales of Evergrande Real estate climbed by about 110% compared to the sales promotion, while the average daily contract was up by about 134% compared to the sales promotion, while the average price in May was only about 6% lower than that in April.　　Will the property market usher in a new wave of price cuts?　　Now the market is concerned that, as individual housing companies to lead the price reduction, the real estate market will be a large-scale trend of price reduction? The key issue in the housing sector is funding. There is a view that, as of the end of last year, real estate sales amounted to 4.39 trillion yuan, investment only completed more than 3 trillion yuan, developers hand about 1.8 trillion yuan in cash. If, according to the first-quarter sales, although the increase has declined, but the current bank credit and sales back to the growth rate is still high, the cash flow of large enterprises has not been much affected, investment funds are still sufficient. The listed company has more than 10 billion cash flow of dozens of companies, reaching 6 billion yuan has forty or fifty. Now, half a year, most developers will not appear cash flow problems, and if developers continue to cut back on investment, it will be fine for a year. Shanghai Yi Ju Real Estate Research Institute of Comprehensive Minister Yang Hongxu, developers temporarily not bad money, but most enterprises are hard to bear the pressure of not selling houses for six months. In addition, some of the first-line developers have strategic objectives, such as expanding market share through promotions, so that in the increasingly competitive position. He believes that more and more developers will be added to the lower price camp, "Now the price is definitely better than the price of the quarter." He believes that the inflection point in housing prices will accelerate.　　April, the national prices of 70 cities in March rose by 1.4%, May chain Rose only 0.2%, June is likely to close to zero, the probability of negative growth in July. Shanghai Real Estate Industry Association, a person in charge 10th to reporters, April Shanghai, some properties open, but only limited to "no price", the result of a deal with the cold, all "instead Ta Kong", which shows that many developers pricing strategy is problematic. He believes that some housing companies to reduce sales is a wise move, the sale of discounted real estate to illustrate this point, "developers must recognize the trend, adjust mentality and strategy." ”