"Scissors" continues to expand, two major policies affect operator revenue

January 21, the Ministry of Industry in the official website released 2014 years of Statistical Bulletin of Communications operations. The annual telecom business income of 1,154,110,000,000 yuan, an increase of 3.6%, compared to the previous year fell 5.1%. And the total number of telecom business completed 1,814,950,000,000 Yuan, an increase of 16.1%, more than 2013 growth.

Statistics since 2012, the total telecommunications business and telecommunications business income growth "scissors" is expanding, 2014 to 12.5%.

2014 is the year of 4G development, but also the three major telecom operators in the transition years, the flow of traffic and Internet business changes affect the carrier revenue structure, the above business in the overall proportion of revenue from the previous year's 17% to 23.5%, and the operator's income growth has exceeded 100% contribution rate.

Liang, an independent telecoms analyst, said in an interview with the first financial news reporter it is normal for the total growth of telecom business to exceed the growth of business income, because the average unit price of the core products of the operators is decreasing, but the difference between the two increases to such a high, which is affected by the policy of the last year, the adjustment of net settlement price and so on.

"Scissors" continues to expand

2014, the total number of telecommunications business and the growth of telecommunications business income "scissors" set the highest record in 6 years, reached 12.5%. 2009, 2010, 2011, respectively, the difference is 11%, 11%, 5.1%, The figure narrowed to 1.8% in 2012, but expanded rapidly to 6.9% in 2013 and 2014 years to 12.5%, and continued to expand.

At the end of 2013, LTE 4G Network licensing, 4G network per user average monthly traffic is nearly 1GB. At the beginning of the 2009 3G Licensing, the average monthly traffic per user only 26.7MB, only about 1/40 of the current. After 3G, the average monthly mobile broadband usage per user is 205MB, 7.7 times times the 2009.

2014 A total of 4G users added 9728.4, in the mobile user penetration rate of 7.6%, with 2G, 3G users further to 4G users, traffic consumption growth will be further accelerated.

Mobile voice traffic has grown close to the ceiling, with a 1% increase in the number of calls in 2014. MoU value (average per user monthly call time) is significantly reduced, mobile local voice and long-distance voice MoU value decreased 6%, 5.4% respectively. 2014, the national Mobile text messaging business volume Year-on-year also fell 14.4%.

In terms of revenue, voice business revenue in 2014 accounted for 50.7% of the revenue in mobile communications, and fell 5.9% in 2013, in addition, mobile text messaging business receipts fell 14.7% Year-on-year, the income scale was reduced by 9.11 billion yuan. Mobile data and Internet business revenue accounted for 23.5% of the total revenue, up from 2013 to 6.5%, mobile data and Internet business revenue to the operator's overall revenue contribution rate of more than 100%, become the locomotive of performance growth.

For telecom operators, from voice to traffic, the Internet Business Strategic transformation of the initial results, Ministry of Industry data shows that mobile data and internet business income growth to make up for the decline in voice business income.

But carriers also face other challenges: slowing the growth in revenue growth for the broader Internet broadband access business. Fixed data and internet revenues rose by only 5.5% year-on-year, down 3.5% from 2013, while mobile data and Internet traffic, which accounted for a notable increase in business revenues, have seen a slowdown in growth than in 2013.

Two major policies affect operator revenue

"From the growth of business volume, the development of the industry is still relatively normal, and speed is accelerating." The revenue growth of the communication business is also normal, but there are some special reasons to make such a big difference. Liang said in an interview with reporters.

According to the Ministry of Accounting, the telecommunications composite price index fell 10.8% in 2014, the Telecom product unit price is indeed getting cheaper. Liang that, although the volume of business increased, and the average unit price is falling, it may cause the increase in business volume, Business income growth "scissors" phenomenon.

4G licensing, with the rapid growth of traffic consumption, the unit price of the flow is also falling. In order to win the user, the operator 2014 set off many rounds of price reduction. Although 2014 mobile broadband traffic consumption is 7.7 times times 2009, and the unit price in accordance with the standard of 4G to less than the previous 1/10. Overall, the 4G permeability is still not high, but the 4G traffic price has spread to the whole.

Liang told reporters, "scissors" expansion also with last year's implementation of the "camp to increase", "net settlement price adjustment" policy launched, "from the Ministry of Public Information published monthly data, from the June camp to increase the start, the income growth is obviously a decline in November, or even negative growth." ”

In addition, the operator's net settlement price reduced the cost of some operators, but also deducted their income. According to media reports, virtual operators have reached millions of users. Liang that the emergence of the virtual trader will be divided into the basic operators part of the performance.

"Operator voice growth is now on the whole stagnant, the new user is a considerable proportion of new users, such as buying a mobile phone, mobile phone number from a number of two, but this does not cause the increase in voice volume." The drop in SMS business has been falling for several years. "Liang said.

And the pick-up of 3G users is a bit "bounce". Last October, November, the telecommunications industry since the 3G licensing for the first time since the 3G user's negative growth, which moved October, November 3G Users net reduction of 1.571 million households, 703,000 households. The industry generally believes that the development of 3G has come to an inflection point.

"3G users increased last December because of the apparent positive growth in China Mobile 3G users." December a very special situation, operators, mobile phone manufacturers need to empty the end of 3G terminal inventory as soon as possible, in this case marketing resources will tilt to 3G. 2015, the three major operators of marketing resources to 4g,3g negative growth in the future is inevitable, the loss of users will be significantly accelerated. "Liang said.

As 3G users migrate to 4G, the days of Unicom and telecom may be even sadder. By the end of last year, mobile TD-SCDMA (3G) and LTE (4G) users had a total net gain of 143 million households, a net increase of 40 million households, and swept 79.1% of the incremental share.