Second-quarter upbeat data masks China's economic short board or will tighten credit

A number of data points to the recovery before the National Bureau of Statistics released data, several agencies have launched forecasts.　　Like the CICC Institute estimates that the second quarter of GDP growth of 7.4% per cent, JPMorgan Chase is 6.9%, and news in the top ten brokerage institutions based on the forecast data on the basis of the "" and the forecast of the show as 7.5%.　　Although there are many discrepancies in data, it is a consensus that the 6.1% above the first quarter. "The second half of this year will be better, and some policy effects will emerge in the second half.　　"Professor Billows, director of the Business Economics Institute of Beijing Business University, pointed out to the International Herald leader that not only GDP, social consumer goods retail market, CPI (consumer Price index), PMI (manufacturing purchasing managers index) and other data are also more optimistic, together with GDP to provide data support for China's economic recovery. Year-on-year growth in total retail sales of consumer goods has rebounded from 11.6% in February to 15.2% in May, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.　　Thy billows believe that the stability and recovery of the consumer market has played a stabilizing role in the economy. In June, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index PMI was 53.2, up 0.1 from May, according to the China Logistics and Procurement Federation. This is also the index of 4 consecutive months to maintain at 50 of the point of the wing blight.　　Your billows introduced, in fact, PMI starting from last November, has been rising, showing that the manufacturing industry is stabilizing the state. The CPI index has been low for the moment, but the decline has begun to shrink. Thy billows told the reporter, from 2007 to now, the CPI experienced a complete cycle from low to high to low.　　The CPI represents a change in prices, which creates conditions for investment in the lower CPI. According to thy billows, although China's economic growth has declined, the growth rate is still higher globally.　　Economic growth has driven the consumer market, which will lead to a recovery in the overall economy. "From the current trend, China is likely to usher in economic recovery, and will lead the recovery of Asia as a whole."　　"said thy billows. The problem of being masked by data "I have a reserved optimism about this." Bao Minghua, director of the Economic Research Institute of Renmin University of China, said that the country's economic dependence on foreign trade is too high, leading to a higher degree of reliance on the international economy.　　In the absence of improvement in the environment, China's own macro-policy clearly does not solve the systemic risks facing the economy, that is, "they can not control the risk." "Now it seems that there is no fundamental change in the problem of reducing external dependence, the quality and inefficiency of the economy itself."　　"Bao Minghua said. And these, is also China International Economic Relations Society Executive Director Tan Yaling very worried. "From now on, to ' protect 8 ' is no problem, but the Chinese economy needs only to ' protect 8 '?"　　Tan Yaling that, in fact, from the first half of China's investment in the economy, the second quarter of the economic data good-looking is the inevitable result, is very normal. "I think the result is not optimistic, the data cover up a lot of problems, China's economic structureProblems, rural issues and employment issues have not been resolved.　　"Tan Yaling points out that in the absence of the economic crisis, China is constantly looking for economic short board to adjust, after the crisis, but abandoned the new thinking, instead of the traditional way to save themselves. "The data are optimistic, but many of the real problems have been overshadowed by investments in the first half of the year," he said.　　Ye Tan, the financial critic, expressed the same concern to reporters. The government may be tightening credit in fact, as part of the stimulus package, loose credit policies have raised concerns among experts. Bao Minghua that China has begun to worry that the excess liquidity caused by loose credit policies has turned into inflation, with a tightening trend.　　Tan Yaling said that at present, the Chinese market will be difficult to escape the problem of excess liquidity, the next plan, should consider how to make the flow of capital more balanced. Your billows told reporters that the next step of economic regulation, but also the impact of psychosocial factors should be taken into account. "Why is the data optimistic and the actual situation does not look so good?" "My billows said that there are many problems in China's economy, but people's psychological perception of the crisis is one of the main factors."　　Some regions, some industries are affected by the economic crisis, it is easy to produce amplification effect, people feel uneven phenomenon is very serious. "We should also introduce measures to relieve social and psychological pressure," he said. "Your Billows said," In short, this year's economic situation will be good. ”