Sinovel behind the high price pricing: How much do brokers know about fundamental industries

Financial Weekly agency researcher Wang Jiangtao -9.59%--"the most expensive in history" Shanghai Main Board Sinovel Wind power (601558.SH) listed on the first day of the listing suffered Waterloo. 49 institutions "hit the new" first day of floating loss of 1.7 billion yuan.　　The "Cup" of Sinovel, like a piece of ice in winter. Sinovel first 90 yuan, January 13 opened 87 yuan, closed to 81.37 yuan, fell 9.59%.　　Comparable to such "horror", I found the data to date back to the May 2010 gem shares (300082.SZ), the first day fell 9.91%.　　In fact, up to 4 of the 16 new shares issued so far this year have been "break", accounting for 1/4. "Break" causes more, such as the two-tier market downturn, the IPO, the issue of "three high" and so on.　　But specific to Sinovel, its "break" must be related to pricing, that is, the price is induced sinovel "break" key variables. Then the next discussion becomes interesting. Who is affecting pricing?　　Whose price can we trust? Last November, new shares issued two changes, add hundreds of inquiry objects, making the current inquiry object of nearly 400. Logically, the prices given by many Parties should be more reasonable.　　However, institutional investors for the "risk-free arbitrage" motivation, the price has been high.　　In addition to the above institutional arrangement defects, the value analysis report issued by the principal underwriter and the relevant research institution also confuses the investor's judgment to some extent. Huarui Sponsor (main underwriter) securities, combined with relative valuation, absolute valuation, that the reasonable value range at 95.25 yuan-106.68 yuan.　　The 09 P/E ratio is 45.35 times times higher than the company's 39.14 times-fold average P/e ratio. In fact, however, it exaggerates the value of Sinovel (regardless of company fundamentals and Industry cycles). First of all, its final choice of price range of 80 yuan-90 yuan, compared to the value of the report has been greatly reduced. Secondly, 60 of the 107 assigned to the object of inquiry management to give a preliminary inquiry, only less than 70% objects quoted in the lower limit of issuance, the minimum price of 60 yuan.　　There is a more trust securities themselves recommended inquiry object-Anhui high-speed holding also does not "give", the offer but did not pay.　　A lot of brokerage price is also "disorderly flower gradually want attractive eye".　　For example, the first venture to give two prices: in accordance with the current and next two years of earnings valuation, corresponding to 135 yuan, according to the 09 valuation, corresponding to 85-95 yuan-what is the investor's "preference" Which?　　For example, the company has not set a hypothetical condition, but simply according to peer forecasts, given the so-called "reasonable valuation interval."　　There are many institutions "title Party", are "leading", "leader" is called Sinovel, for the risk of mentioning little or no mention. Interestingly, including the century, the East China Sea, the first venture, and so on at least 3 brokerages, forecast sinovel cost of the assumption part of the same height, showing that they bought the same seller's analysis model, only a slight change in parameters. They are to the company and the industryFundamentals, how much do you know?　　There is a brokerage capital Markets department responsible to me that the general new stock price quotation normal distribution, 80% quotation close to the issue price (this is to be empirically analyzed). For the research institute's IPO value report "Gold content", the person laughs but not language. This How much let me feel "the letter has, does not believe is not" the chilly coolness.