Six major dilemmas faced in the complicated year of midterm exam

Every reporter Wan Xia from Beijing recently intensive data from the macro-generated market for the Chinese economy may be two of the bottom of the worries.　　The April or May PMI data declined for two consecutive months, while the non-manufacturing Business activity index, in addition to the inventory index and the supplier Distribution Time index, showed a slight rise in the rest of the major indices. Looking at the data alone, some experts have sent an analysis of the downside risks to China's economic growth.　　However, recently the People's Daily and Xinhua news Agency have published articles, pointing out that although the Chinese economy is facing the 6 big dilemma, but "the economy will not bottom two times, low inflation will continue."　　The worry of no second dip?　　Lu Zhong, deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that China's economic operation is a correction, but it is still above normal levels and is expected to grow by about 9.5% per cent throughout the year, with no two dip. Lu Zhongyuan believes that a small pullback in the economy was due to a higher base last year, including modest recovery of liquidity, management of inflation expectations, and as the economy warmed up, policy stimulus more than last year, and other factors. He expects economic growth to show a high and low trend this year, but will still reach around 9.5% a year.　　Because of the "troika" driving economic growth, the impact of the European debt crisis on China's exports is limited, and the impact of property regulation on the growth of investment is small; consumer demand will remain steady. At the same time, Changbaoliang, deputy director of the Ministry of Economic forecasting at the National Information Center, said that in the context of China's policy effect of guiding and managing inflationary expectations, global economic growth in the environment is lower than the potential growth rate, so our low inflation situation will remain, and the price level will be relatively moderate,　　The annual inflation rate will not exceed 3%. In addition to the media, officials also say that there is no second dip in the worry. In the recently held 21st century Boao real Estate 2010-year meeting, the People's Bank of China Research Bureau Director Zhang Jianhua said inflation is the central bank's first goal to control, second, pay attention to the overall economic situation growth. He thinks the economy will slow down in the second half of the year, but there will be no two dip in the first quarter of GDP is 11.9%, two quarterly market forecasts will reach about 10%.　　In Friday, the National Bureau of Statistics just adjusted last year's GDP by 9.1%.　　The complex year meets six "dilemmas" to review this year's Central economic Work Conference, the central government will be "good regulation" as the focus.　　In the six-year review of the economic situation, Xinhua has rarely used the "complicated year" as a summary. According to the Economist's comb, China's economy is facing six "dilemmas": if the renminbi rises too fast, it will face the worsening of the export, employment difficulties, and the huge international pressure, not only to enhance the export to the economic pull, also can not go to the past blindly expand the old road of exports; But the corresponding enterprise cost will also increase; Real estate regulation should not be done halfway, but the real estate shrinkage is also unfavorable to the economy; energy saving and emission reduction should raise resource prices, but current prices need to be controlled; there is a risk of two dip in macro policies prematurely.Getting back too late will increase inflationary pressure. Are the six dilemmas a thorny issue for the next step in macro-adjustment?　　"The dilemma is a problem that can be encountered at any given time, so it is not too stressful for this problem, because all the ideas of economics are balanced and macro-adjustment should find the right balance," said Lu, a senior economist at Societe Generale. Lu Commissar suggested that the current economic operation, in particular, to avoid long-term problems with short-term policies to solve, so can not expect structural adjustment, it takes time, "Premier Wen said very well to solve the current and long-term problems, everything is to ensure the smooth development of the economy as a prerequisite."　　"Lu stressed. Private enterprises call for investment liberalisation of the first half of the macroeconomic policy guidance and the consensus of many economists is to pry into the civilian economy, revitalize private capital.　　As a representative of the small and medium-sized enterprises, Jiangsu New Japan Electric Vehicle Co., Ltd., spokesman Hu Gang in the daily economic news reporter interview, said that there is an urgent need for policies to support SME loans, while accelerating the private capital investment in the field of relaxation. The increase in material cost and labor cost is the most profound change that Hu Gang experienced in the first half of the year. He sees this as a common problem for all businesses.　　In addition, the import enterprise wants the exchange rate to be higher, the export enterprise wants the exchange rate to be lower, each kind of enterprise has different demand to the exchange rate. But the difficulty of lending is a common problem for small and medium-sized enterprises.　　"If forced to borrow money from underground banks such as Wenzhou, high interest rates are hard for many small and medium-sized enterprises to bear," Hu Gang said. In addition, the State Council has just issued a new 36 articles need ministries and local government to further implement. Hu Gang described the situation of small and medium-sized enterprises as "eldest brother also gave, outsiders also gave, only the little brother has not eaten."　　Hu believes that some foreign investment can enter the field, private enterprises have not even access to intervention. If you need to reprint, please contact the "Daily economic news".　　Without the "Daily economic news" authorization, is prohibited reprint or mirror, offenders must investigate. Per subscribe telephone Beijing: 010-58528501 Shanghai: 021-61283003 shenzhen: 0755-83520159成: 028-86516389028-86740011 Wuxi: 15152247316